I recently sat in on a session with a professional pollster who said that when campaigns conduct polling, the last thing they want to know is the “horse race” — who’s ahead, who’s behind.
In some ways, that doesn’t seem to make sense. Isn’t that what we all want to know? Instead, pollster Amanda Iovino of Pantheon Insights said that campaign pollsters such as herself are looking deeper into the numbers — to see what’s moving voters or what could move voters.
Her words rang in my ear as I looked at the results from the latest Commonwealth Poll conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University. The headline results you may have read elsewhere — Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 9 percentage points. That’s a slight shrinkage from the 12 percentage point lead that Spanberger had in the July version of the VCU poll but is also roughly consistent with other polling we’ve seen recently, such as the Roanoke College poll that showed Spanberger up by 7 percentage points.
If that’s all you care about, you can skip out now — I also have part four of a five-part series on “things that could have been” in Virginia. Today: the 1980s battle over a proposed coal slurry pipeline from Southwest Virginia to Hampton Roads. For those who want to understand these numbers on a deeper level, get yourself another cup of coffee — or, if you don’t like the numbers, something stronger. There are some fascinating nuances to be found here.
Let’s get the top-line numbers out of the way, then we’ll get to the good stuff.
Governor: Abigail Spanberger (D) 48.6%, Winsome Earle-Sears (R) 40.3%.
Lieutenant governor: Ghazala Hashmi (D) 44.5%, John Reid (R) 41.3%. (That’s within the margin of error, which is plus or minus 4.1%.)
Attorney general: Jay Jones (D) 46.7%, Jason Miyares (R) 41.4%.
Now, here’s what I see:
The Democrats’ leads are narrowing because Republicans are rising
The Democratic numbers haven’t really changed since the July poll. (Spanberger and Jones have exactly the same numbers.) Hashmi’s are down by 1 percentage point, which could be just a statistical blip. What’s changed is that the Republican numbers have come up.
What that tells me is this is a case of Republicans “coming home” — particularly to Reid, who Gov. Glenn Youngkin once tried to push off the ticket. Republicans should be encouraged by those trends, but I’m not sure Democrats should be worried — yet. Republicans got off to a rough start with this year’s campaign, but Democrats should have always assumed that they’d get things together. What we don’t see yet is Democratic support bleeding away. We also don’t really see it growing, either.
Polls can’t measure one big unknown: a ‘lumpy’ turnout
Four years ago, Republicans generated a larger-than-usual turnout from rural voters, which helped put Youngkin and the rest of the Republican ticket over the top. Can Earle-Sears repeat that trick? Will Spanberger benefit from a larger-than-usual turnout in Democratic-voting Northern Virginia? Either of those things would change the underlying assumptions under not just this poll but any poll. Those things are hard to figure out, though. The Roanoke College poll had an enthusiasm question that suggested Democrats are more motivated than Republicans this year. That’s not surprising; parties out of power usually are. However, historically, Democrats have been less attuned to off-year elections than Republicans. All that’s a long way of saying that if we see an inflated turnout in one part of the state or a deflated turnout in another, that kind of changes all our calculations. Until then, we have to work with our best guesses.
Reid is consolidating Republican support
He has risen the fastest in the VCU poll — from 36% in July to 41% now. That’s enabled Reid to narrow a gap of 10 percentage points to 5 percentage points. Early on, there were many questions about how strongly Republicans would support a gay man on their ticket. These numbers — which are consistent with other polling — show absolutely no statistical difference between the Republican candidates.
Those numbers match my observations from the campaign trail. I’ve seen some very conservative Republicans speak up for Reid with no obvious reservations. From what I’ve seen, Reid is running the best campaign of the six statewide candidates. That has nothing to do with policy, just practical politicking. He’s the least-funded of the six (we’ll get another round of campaign finance reports on Monday so we’ll know just how underfunded he is), but the man is everywhere. He’s running an old-fashioned campaign of showing up wherever he can and talking to whomever he can. If he loses, it won’t be for lack of effort.
Hashmi is the weakest of the three Democrats
She may not be that much weaker than her ticketmates, but both the VCU poll and the Roanoke College poll show her polling just a little bit below the others. We can speculate all day about why that might be: It’s probably not because she’s a woman, because Spanberger consistently leads the Democratic ticket. Is it because Hashmi is of Indian heritage? Is it because she’s Muslim? Is she considered too far left for some? Or is this simply a name recognition issue? We don’t really know, but the poll does give us some clues that we’ll get to shortly.
In the meantime, a question: Reid has been challenging Hashmi to a debate. So far there isn’t one. Would she benefit from one? Or would that be too big a risk?
The lieutenant governor’s race is the closest of the three
It’s not that much closer — a gap of 4 percentage points versus 6 in the attorney general’s race and 9 in the governor’s race — but something’s bound to be closer and this is the one. Both the VCU poll and the Roanoke College poll put this race right about at the margin of error. This is something of a surprise. The conventional wisdom early on had been that, if there was any difference among the three races, it would be the attorney general’s race that would be closest. After all, Republican Jason Miyares is the incumbent and he’s much better funded than Jones, his Democratic challenger. There were Republicans openly talking about how they knew they’d lose the other two races but maybe, by concentrating on Miyares, they could “save” the attorney general’s race.
This poll suggests the lieutenant governor’s race is closer. That could mean any of several things:
1. Maybe the belief that Republicans could salvage the AG’s race is wrong and it’s the lieutenant governor’s race that is the most winnable.
2. Maybe this means both are winnable for Republicans.
3. Maybe all this is wrong and, no matter what we see here, this is going to be a Democratic sweep.
4. We all need to remember that four years ago, Democrat Terry McAuliffe had a lead of 9 percentage points at a later stage in the campaign and Youngkin still won. Campaigns are dynamic things, and outside forces are impacting this one all the time. Republicans got a boost when a woman in Arlington was photographed with a racist sign about Earle-Sears. Democrats got a talking point when Augusta Medical Group announced it’s closing three offices and cited the One Big Beautiful Bill Act as part of the reason.
Independents are leaning 2-1 toward Democrats in two races
Even in an era of hyper-partisanship, independents still matter. Not all self-identified independents may truly be independents. Some may lean one way or another but just prefer the illusion of calling themselves independents. Nonetheless, those who call themselves independents seem to have clear preferences in two of the three races — and it’s the Democratic candidates.
In the governor’s race, independents are breaking to Spanberger 31.0% to 12.4%, and in the attorney general’s race, they’re breaking to Jones 30.2% to 16.6%. That still leaves a lot of independents — slightly less than half of them — undecided, but the initial tilt is definitely toward the blue side of the spectrum.
Hashmi is weak with independents
Hashmi stands out as an exception. Her lead among independents is much narrower — 21.8% to 15.3% — with more undecided than the other two races. It’s not clear why independents are more reluctant to back Hashmi than the other Democrats, but this is her weak spot. Her support among Democrats is on a par with Jones, so her problem isn’t with her party, it’s with independents. If we knew more about the political mood of these independents, we’d know more about what Hashmi should do to win them. We do know a few things, though, which we’ll get to shortly. Hashmi isn’t the only candidate showing some weakness, though.
Earle-Sears also has some softness among independents
Earle-Sears’ overall numbers are in line with her running mates. Beneath the surface, though, we see a few curious differences. We just saw one: While none of the Republicans are doing well with independents (the ones who have decided anyway), Earle-Sears is doing less well than Reid or Miyares. That’s a potential problem.
Spanberger is unusually strong among Democrats
I’m always surprised when polls show that not all people who identify with a certain party are backing that party’s candidates, but there are always some outliers.
Of this year’s six candidates, five get 85%-87% of their own party. The outlier is Spanberger, who has support from 91.7% of self-identified Democrats. Maybe in the end, this doesn’t matter because those laggards will all “come home.” For now, though, Spanberger appears to have consolidated support more than any of the other candidates — which would seem to give her more latitude in reaching out to independents.
The issues this year benefit Democrats
Republicans always like to talk about taxes and Earle-Sears is no exception. Her standard stump speech always mentions taxes — how they’re too high. There’s just one problem: Voters this year don’t seem to care very much.
VCU asked those surveyed what issue was most impacting their vote and listed 12 different options. Taxes came in seventh, mentioned by just 7.4% of voters. Even among Republicans, taxes came in no higher than fourth, listed by just 13.1% of Republican voters.
The issue most mentioned was the “rising cost of living” — cited by 27.8%, more than twice that of any other issue. A year ago, with Joe Biden in the White Houe, this issue would have benefited Republicans. This year, with Donald Trump in the White House, it benefits Democrats. Spanberger’s whole campaign is built around the theme of “affordability.” She’s likely seen this issue resonate in her own polling. The problem for Republicans is that Spanberger is talking about the issue that voters care about most, while Earle-Sears still seems to be struggling to find her voice.
It should also be pointed out that issues related to which restroom transgender students should use, something that Earle-Sears has been pushing, weren’t listed as an option. However, even if all the people who said “other” really meant transgender issues, that’s just 8.8% of those responding (and Republican voters were the least likely to choose “other” anyway). Put another way, that issue might energize some lethargic Republicans, but it doesn’t seem to be what’s moving independents.
Independents are more focused on the cost of living than any other group of voters
Here’s where independents are very different: 29.9% of Democrats say the cost of living is their top issue, 24.6% of Republicans say that — but 45.1% of independents do.
In emphasizing “affordability,” Spanberger is speaking directly to what nearly half of independents care most about. You may find her platform vague, or even wrong, but she is at least attempting to address this concern. Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised then to find Spanberger doing so much better than Earle-Sears among independents.
Even Jones is talking up economic issues, rather than legal ones, in his bid for attorney general. These numbers could be a problem for Miyares. Not surprising for a Republican attorney general, he’s trying to portray Jones as “soft on crime” — but only 6.2% of independents cite crime as their top concern. Five other issues rank higher for independents, including “other.”
Southwest Virginia stands out as both an opportunity and a challenge for Democrats
When we delve into the regional breakdowns, the sample sizes are smaller and the margin of error is higher, so we should really focus on big differences because the small ones might just be statistical wackiness. Two stand out:
The western part of the state cares more about the cost of living than any other part of Virginia — 36.9% say that’s the top concern. By contrast, in Northern Virginia, it’s 26.2%. That makes sense — a rising cost of living will squeeze harder in the least-affluent part of the state than the most-affluent part. That means the most Republican part of the state is most interested in an issue that the Democratic candidate is pushing. That would seem to be an opportunity for Spanberger that so far she’s not taking advantage of — she’s only made one visit to the Roanoke Valley since June and then didn’t venture farther west than Wythe County. (Winsome Earle-Sears didn’t make any between early June and the last weekend of August.)
On the other hand, the western part of the state cares less about “women’s reproductive rights” — that’s how the issue was framed in the poll — than anywhere else. In every other part of the state, that issue made it into double digits; in the western part of Virginia, just 5.9% cited that as their top issue. To the extent that Democrats feature that issue (and Spanberger mentions it prominently on her website), that’s not an issue likely to move many rural voters.
The most important poll of all hasn’t been taken yet
That, of course, is the election. So far, not a single vote has been cast. Starting next Friday — Sept. 19 — some will be, though. That’s when early voting begins.
To see where the candidates stand, see our Voter Guide. We’ve built separate pages for all 133 cities and counties in Virginia, so you can see who’s on your ballot.
Want more political news and insight? I’ll have more about the VCU poll and more in this week’s edition of West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter.
