Why Virginia belongs in the Big Ten and Virginia Tech belongs in the SEC

See our FAQs: Will the Atlantic Coast Conference dissolve?

Clemson and Florida State are suing the Atlantic Coast Conference over the league’s media rights contract — and, more tellingly, the cost of exiting the ACC. 

“Severe,” Clemson calls it. “Draconian,” Florida State says.

The exact figure is in dispute — $130 million, the league says, although Florida State says it could cost that school up to $572 million. Either way, a lot of money for what we used to consider amateur sports.

Meanwhile, the University of North Carolina has made it clear that it’s unhappy with the amount of money it receives from the ACC. The college sports world is rife with chatter about where those three schools would wind up if they figure out an inexpensive way to leave the ACC. The Big Ten and the Southeastern Conference both offer more money, and all those schools would surely like to cash in on that. However, just because the Big Ten and SEC offer more money doesn’t mean they’ll offer it to just anyone. 

There are regional rivalries to be taken into account: South Carolina and Florida, both in the SEC, may not want in-state competition. 

Ultimately, this is a business arrangement. Before either conference adds new members, it will want to make sure they would increase the value of the league. Right now, SEC schools get a 1/16th share of the TV revenue. Before they agree to take just 1/18th of the pie, they’ll want to make sure that the pie is bigger — and that a 1/18th share of that bigger pie is larger than a 1/16th share of the current one.

All this matters here in Virginia because both Virginia Tech and the University of Virginia are ACC schools. If the league flies apart, or gets devalued through the loss of some members, that has implications in both Blacksburg and Charlottesville, and not just for sports fans. Nine years ago, a study found that Virginia Tech football produced $61.9 million for the regional economy — fans spending money, even buying condos and houses for football weekends. That’s the equivalent of $82.03 million today, which makes any future conference affiliation more than the proverbial $64 million question. A Virginia Tech-Clemson game would be more attractive to fans than, say, Virginia Tech versus a lesser replacement game.

For all the sports speculation about where certain schools “naturally” fit — this school feels more like an SEC school, this one more like a Big Ten school — there are some academic considerations. The Big Ten likes its schools to be members of the American Association of Universities, an invitation-only group of top research schools. That would rule out both Clemson and Florida State, even if they do have strong football programs. 

There is another way to look at things, though. We don’t need to theorize about how certain conferences might view certain schools. We already know. The Chronicle of Higher Education recently published a database that shows who colleges consider their peer institutions, and which ones consider them their peers in return. (The data comes from what schools report to the U.S. Department of Education.)

Granted, these are peers based on academics and similar considerations, not whose student body is best able to transport a bag of air down the field. But this database does serve as a way to see how schools would like to see themselves when they look in the mirror.

Based on that, we can draw these conclusions, based on the schools’ own choices:

• Florida State doesn’t belong in the ACC
• Neither Clemson nor Florida State belongs in the Big Ten.
• If Virginia Tech had to find a new conference, it would be more at home in the SEC than the Big Ten.
• Virginia, though, would be more at home in the Big Ten than the SEC.

Here’s what I base that on. The Chronicle database sorts schools two ways: by the institutions that colleges identify as their peers, and by the other schools that pick them. To me, that’s the more telling information. I might think my peer for singing is Ed Sheeran or Bruno Mars, but if the only one who thinks I’m his peer is Big Croaker, the bullfrog down in the neighbor’s pond, then that tells me where I really rate. So here’s what that measure tells me about the schools in question:

Florida State

Florida State identified 79 schools as its peers, but only 11 colleges named Florida State as their peer. Oof. 

Of those 11 schools that identified with Florida State, none were in the ACC and none were in the Big Ten. Two were in the SEC: Alabama and Auburn. Three are in the Big 12: Arizona State, Central Florida and Texas Tech. 

Otherwise, the schools looking to Florida State as an academic equal included North Texas and  Wayne State, as well as two we know well: George Mason and Virginia Commonwealth University. Those last two don’t even have football teams!

Florida State may be a fine academic institution — I’m in no place to say otherwise — but not many schools are looking to it as a peer, certainly not the schools it’s in the ACC with.

Florida State sees itself as a peer to lots of places — it cites 15 schools in the 18-member Big Ten, 12 in the 16-member SEC, 10 in the 18-member Big 12 and seven in the soon-to-be 18-member ACC. That sense of identity just isn’t reciprocated. 

One of the criticisms of Florida State in the sports world is, as we say in the country: the school is too big for its britches. This data, from very much outside the sports world, seems to match that unsparing assessment.

Florida State wants out of the ACC because it wants Big Ten-level or SEC-level money, but might have trouble finding it. The Big Ten may not want Florida State because it’s not an AAU member; it seems significant that not a single Big Ten school sees Florida State as a peer. Meanwhile, the SEC may not want Florida State, either, because the conference already has the Florida market and doesn’t need to split that. Yes, I realize money may ultimately be the decision maker here, but from a financial standpoint, it makes more sense for a conference to add new markets than to divide up the ones it has. Hold that thought.

Clemson

Clemson thinks more highly of fellow ACC schools than they feel about Clemson. 

Clemson identified just eight peer institutions. Of those, five are in the ACC, including both Virginia and Virginia Tech, while three are in the SEC. Meanwhile, 22 schools saw Clemson as their equal — but only two of those are in the ACC, and one may not be for long. Those ACC peers are Florida State and Syracuse. Seven SEC schools see Clemson as a peer, but not a single member of the Big Ten does.

Clemson, like Florida State, wants more money but could find itself in the same situation: not qualified to join the Big Ten for lack of AAU membership and locked out of the SEC because that league already has a South Carolina school.

North Carolina

Clemson and Florida State might be in a position of “be careful what you wish for,” but the Tar Heels would seem to have multiple options of the “exit” door flung open. As an AAU member, it would qualify for the Big Ten, and it would constitute a new market for either the Big Ten or the SEC. 

North Carolina would find peers in either conference. The Chronicle shows that 30 institutions identified UNC as their equal, including seven Big Ten schools and eight SEC schools, both more than the five ACC schools that picked Carolina. North Carolina is in an enviable position, certainly a better one than either Clemson or Florida State would seem to be.

So, what about our two in-state schools? What kind of position would they be in, especially if academics is a driver?

Virginia and Virginia Tech

Like North Carolina, Virginia — the state, not the school — would be a new market for either the Big Ten or the SEC. That would seem to help both the University of Virginia and Virginia Tech. In most sports commentary I’ve read, Virginia is listed as a more desirable addition than Virginia Tech. Hokie fans may dispute that, but the Chronicle data does suggest Virginia might have more options. 

An impressive 28 schools listed the University of Virginia as a peer school, including six members of the Big Ten, five members of the ACC, five more from the SEC, as well as four members of the Big 12. 

A likewise impressive 24 schools identified Virginia Tech as a peer — but none of them are in the Big Ten. There are six SEC schools that see Tech as their academic equal and four in the Big 12. Only three ACC schools listed Tech as a peer, and two of those are ones eyeing the exit — Clemson and Florida State.

Virginia Tech very much sees itself as a peer with Big Ten schools — 12 of the 25 schools it sees as peers are in the Big Ten. Those Big Ten schools just look somewhere else, though. 

If this data alone made the difference, it’s easy to see Virginia going to the Big Ten and Virginia Tech going to the SEC in the event of an ACC breakup. 

I’m skipping over a lot of messy details, though. If some schools — Clemson, Florida State, maybe North Carolina — left the ACC, how many other schools would leave? And how would the remaining schools react in terms of trying to reconstitute the league? 

And then there’s this one: Would Virginia and Virginia Tech go their separate ways, or would the schools insist on a package deal? Television networks might not like that but home state fans might, which raises the question of what their gubernatorial-appointed boards might think.