Want more information on the June 18 primaries? See our voter guide.
Five weeks from today, we’ll be talking about who won the 5th District Republican primary between U.S. Rep. Bob Good and challenger state Sen. John McGuire — and why.
Today, we’ll pose five questions, the answers to which we don’t know right now, but which will help determine the winner in the June 18 primary.
So let’s go!
1. Who benefits most from a high turnout?
Here are the facts we start with: Good has never had to run in a primary before. When he won the nomination in 2020 by defeating incumbent Denver Riggleman, he won it in a convention where 2,375 people were registered. When he was renominated in 2022 over challenger Daniel Moy, he did so in a convention where 1,795 votes were cast.
This year’s primary will generate far more voters than that; we just don’t know how many. As of Tuesday, there have been 2,216 early votes cast in the 5th District Republican race, according to figures from the State Board of Elections that the Virginia Public Access Project has made more accessible on its early voting page. That’s more than in any other Republican congressional primary in the state this year — including the six-way race in the 7th District and the four-way race in the 10th District. That means by the time you read this Wednesday, there may already be more votes cast in the 5th District Republican primary than in either of Good’s prior nominations via conventions where he dominated. (I’ll have more to say about the latest early voting numbers in our free weekly political newsletter, West of the Capital, which goes out every Friday at 3 p.m. You can sign up for that or any of our other free newsletters on our newsletter page.)
How high could turnout go? We have five data points to guide us: the five congressional primaries that were held in Virginia two years ago. Four of those were on the Republican side, and turnout ranged from 10,409 in the strongly Democratic 3rd District in Hampton Roads to 41,839 in the 2nd District race in Hampton Roads that Jen Kiggans won. The 3rd District is so Democratic that’s probably not a good gauge. If we drop that out, then the spread is between 23,488 in the 6th District and the 2nd District’s 41,839. That 6th District race involved a challenge to an incumbent (Ben Cline), but it wasn’t much of a challenge. In terms of intensity, this year’s 5th District race seems more akin to the 2022 primaries in the 7th and 2nd districts, which would put the turnout between 37,708 and 41,839.
We know that Good seems to enjoy support from local party leaders — he’d probably win a convention. What we don’t know is how far his support goes once the Republican electorate swells to something approaching 40,000. Turnout like that brings in a lot more casual Republican voters who may or may not be influenced by McGuire’s message that Good has been insufficiently supportive of Donald Trump.
How high could turnout go? The examples I used above were all Republican primaries, but the sole Democratic primary — a small challenge to Rep. Don Beyer in the 8th District in Northern Virginia — produced a turnout of 50,645 votes.
2. What will voters make of McGuire’s message that Good hasn’t backed Trump strongly enough?
Let’s face it: There aren’t really any issues as such in this race. I can’t imagine McGuire’s voting record being much different from Good’s on actual bills. This is not a case of a moderate challenging a conservative; these are two candidates who occupy the same ideological lane. Part of McGuire’s message is that Good has been a disruptive influence in Washington, but mostly it’s that Good didn’t initially endorse Trump — he backed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis until DeSantis dropped out. I’m not a 5th District voter, so my opinion doesn’t count. But Good’s rationale for backing DeSantis seemed sound — with DeSantis, you’d get Trump policies but without the Trump baggage, so he might have had a better chance to win. Plus, he could serve two consecutive terms. Still, Good was quick to endorse Trump once DeSantis exited the race.
Good did sound a little less Trumpy in 2016 — before he ran for Congress — when he posted this on Facebook:
“Trump was about my 17th choice out of 17 or so running in the Republican primary field. For what it’s worth, I supported Ted Cruz. However, on Tuesday I will make the best choice available, and vote enthusiastically against the evil represented by the demonstrated world view of Hillary Clinton and her associates. She is wrong on EVERYTHING, and the truly scary thing is that what she HAS done pales in comparison to what she WOULD do if she could. That is why she and Democrats like her — and Obama — have to lie to get elected. Even as far as our country has slidden morally and otherwise, she could NEVER be elected if she told the truth about what she believes.
“So, I will vote the best choice on life, Israel, and national security (borders, language, and culture). I am hopeful — rather certain — that someone who will pick the admirable Mike Pence as VP, and promise to name justices in the mold of Antonin Scalia, is INFINITELY better than Hillary Clinton for America. On Tuesday, I will vote for Donald Trump and hope and pray for the best for my country.”
The Good of 2016, who ranked Trump as his least-favorite Republican contender, behind the establishment likes of Jeb Bush and John Kasich, sounded a lot more practical than the Good of 2024. Some voters might see that as a plus, but if voters take McGuire’s argument at face value, it might not be such an advantage. Still, Good has since called Trump the best president of his lifetime, so he hardly seems anti-Trump to me.
3. What will voters make of Good’s role in bringing down then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy?
Some Republican primary voters may like that he helped rid the party of someone deemed too prone to compromise. Others may blame Good for throwing the House, and the party, into chaos. Others may simply not care. We just don’t know what that split is right now.
We do know that lots of national money is pouring into the 5th District, much of aimed to trying to oust Good. The Associated Press reports that so far $3.3 million has been spent on advertising in the district, so voters certainly won’t be unaware of whatever it is the candidates want them to know.
4. What will Nikki Haley voters in the district do?
Not every Republican is a fan of Trump, so what will those voters do when confronted with two candidates each professing their support for Trump? Some, of course, may simply not vote — but what about those who do?
This is not an insubstantial number of voters, even in a heavy Trump district. In the March presidential primary, 26.6% of Republican voters in the 5th District voted for Haley, according to an analysis by VPAP. The largest concentration of Haley voters in the 5th District was in Charlottesville and Albemarle County, two localities she carried. In Charlottesville, she took 73.6% of the vote; in Albemarle, 54.6%.
In terms of raw voters, that’s 1,204 Haley votes in Charlottesville, 5,032 in Albemarle County. I’ve wondered before whether that Haley vote in Charlottesville and Albemarle County might prove decisive in a race between two candidates trying to hug Trump.
5. How much will local politics factor into the outcome?
Both candidates may have trouble securing their base. The Republican committee in McGuire’s home county of Goochland has passed a resolution of “no confidence” in him on the grounds that he said he wouldn’t run for Congress but now is. (He says circumstances have changed.) Good has some prominent Republicans in his home base around Lynchburg who have endorsed McGuire. Three sitting supervisors in Campbell County — Good’s home county, and a place where Good once served on the board of supervisors — have endorsed McGuire. So has a former Campbell supervisor, Dale Moore, who said in a statement: “I’ve known [Good] for years and I can tell you firsthand: Bob Good is selfishly serving Bob Good, not the people of our district. I sat right next to Bob on the Campbell County Board of Supervisors so I’ve seen him in action, and that’s why I’m supporting John McGuire.” Good has gotten involved in trying to orchestrate who the Lynchburg City Council should select as mayor (he failed); notably, the council member who did win the mayorship, Stephanie Reed, has endorsed McGuire.
If one of the first rules of campaigning is to nail down your home territory, both candidates seem to have failed.
One small thing to take note of: We might see more votes out of Lynchburg than usual. That’s because there’s a hotly contested Republican primary going on in Lynchburg for the nomination for the Ward IV seat on the city council: Vice mayor Chris Faraldi is being challenged by Peter Alexander, part of a contentious split between Republicans on the Lynchburg council that I’ve written about before. That could pump up the turnout in one part of Lynchburg, with unknown ramifications for the congressional primary. That extra turnout there probably won’t make a difference district-wide, unless things turn out to be razor-close.
I am not here to make predictions. Actual voters will sort all this out. However, if we look ahead, we know one thing for certain: One of these candidates will win, one won’t. If Good wins, the story will be the power of incumbency and, depending on the margin, perhaps a vindication (or chastisement) of how he’s conducted himself as chair of the House Freedom Caucus. If Good loses, the story will be a combination of how voters want someone absolutely loyal to Trump and/or don’t like what Good has been doing, in which case we can argue about which of those factors mattered most.
The night of June 18 will be interesting; the morning after will be, too.