With the ink of his veto pen, Gov. Glenn Youngkin has just helped shape the battle lines of the 2025 governor’s race — and the 2026 General Assembly session that will follow.
Here’s how the governor’s vetoes, and in some cases his proposed amendments, will set the tone for both the April 17 reconvened session and the politics of the state for the next two years.
Taxes: Are Virginians overtaxed relative to neighboring states?
The governor backed down on his push for tax cuts. This seems a significant concession. Youngkin pushed his case throughout his 2021 campaign and at every opportunity since. He now seems to have bowed to the political reality that a Democratic legislature simply doesn’t agree. We’re at the stage of Youngkin’s term where people (mostly commentators like me) like to talk about his legacy. We heard that L-word used repeatedly during the debate over the Alexandria arena — how that would have been Youngkin’s legacy. But tax cuts would have been, too, and it’s clear now they’re not happening — not this year, not anytime during his term. That’s got to be a disappointment.
For now, Youngkin’s legacy is that of Horatius at the bridge, the Roman officer of antiquity who single-handedly staved off an invading army by blocking a key passage. Youngkin has, and no doubt will continue to, block some key Democratic priorities — which means that the Republican candidate for governor in 2025 will be able argue that if a Democrat wins, all those things will become law. Republican candidates for the House of Delegates will be able to say that, too (the state Senate won’t be up for reelection until midway through the next governor’s term). Republicans will see the potential passage of all those bills as a dire catastrophe; Democrats will see that as a thing to be hoped for.
That’s what the 2025 governor’s race will be about, with one caveat: If Donald Trump returns to the White House, as now looks quite possible, the Democratic candidate will have the reaction to him on their side. The last time Trump was president, the reaction led to grevious Republican losses in subsequent elections in Virginia. Given those electoral returns in 2017 (which saw Democrats make big gains) and 2019 (which saw Democrats win a majority in Richmond), Republicans who want to win the governorship and regain a majority in the House of Delegates might want to secretly wish for a reelected President Joe Biden to run against.
In any case, Youngkin’s retreat on tax cuts sets them up as an issue for 2025: Is he right that Virginia’s economy is becoming less competitive with North Carolina and Tennessee because our income taxes are so much higher? Youngkin’s original tax proposal called for a combination of tax cuts (income taxes) and tax increases (sales tax) to, as he put it, better balance Virginia’s revenue sources. Democrats in the General Assembly spiked most of those but kept Youngkin’s proposal to extend the sales tax to digital products. The governor now wants to spike that, noting that he introduced it as part of a package, not a stand-alone tax increase. Republicans are already keen to use that to make the case that Democrats are inveterate tax-raisers (even though Democrats contend, hey, this was the governor’s idea).
School construction and maintenance: How can rural counties keep up with rising costs?
Under Virginia’s system, where local governments only have the powers granted them by Richmond, nine localities — but only nine — have the power to hold referendums on whether to raise the local sales tax with the money going to schools. A commission on school modernization recommended in 2021 that power be extended statewide. That measure repeatedly failed when House Republicans blocked it; but this year, with Democrats in charge, it passed — only to be vetoed by the governor.
Youngkin’s veto explanation said he objected to the bill because it had the potential to raise the sales tax in some places to as high as 8% “with no additional offsets, such as reduced income tax or property tax.” He also expressed concern that some localities might raise their sales taxes but then shift some spending away from schools, with the result that taxes are higher but no additional money actually goes to schools. Finally, he felt sufficient money was already available through the current and previous budgets for school construction. He said any tax changes “must allow hardworking Virginians to keep more of their money, not less; any proposal that increases the cost of living and the cost of business is not a policy we should pursue.”
Some localities don’t see it that way at all. They see the earlier school construction money that Youngkin referred to as difficult to access because it’s in the form of a loan that has to be repaid. The jury is still out on how useful that will be. In any case, what the state made available was $1.3 billion on the theory that, with local matches, it would leverage $3 billion in construction. None of those are insignificant sums, but neither is the need: The state once estimated the school construction and maintenance backlog at $25 billion. That “once” refers to when Bob McDonnell was governor — now three governors ago. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ inflation calculator says that would be $33.29 billion today — and that assumes no new needs have arisen. As for additional funding, Jeremy Bennett of the Virginia Association of Counties says that the governor’s proposed amendment “actually reduces the amount of funding available for school construction loans by $75 million compared to the enrolled conference report budget.”
School construction has historically been a local expense, and that weight falls heaviest on rural communities that have few ways to raise revenue other than raising real estate rates. Prince Edward County, which has a school where some rooms can’t be used because the roof leaks so badly, estimates it would have to raise real estate rates 25% to fix it. That’s simply untenable in a rural community, or any community.
It’s notable that two Republican legislators — Del. Tommy Wright of Lunenburg County and state Sen. Tammy Brankley Mulchi of Mecklenburg County — introduced legislation this year that would give Prince Edward the power to hold a referendum for a sales tax increase. Those bills eventually got merged into companion bills by Del. Sam Rasoul, D-Roanoke, and state Sen. Jeremy McPike, D-Prince William County, to extend that authority statewide. That’s what the governor vetoed. (Both Wright and Mulchi voted for it.)
It’s also notable that the legislation passed with significant Republican support — rural Republicans. In the Senate, six of 19 Republicans backed the bill. In the House, about half the Republicans voted for the measure. The result: In both chambers, the bill passed by margins big enough to override Youngkin’s veto — 71-26 in the House, 27-12 in the Senate. How many of those Republicans will hold fast and buck the governor? How many will relent and side with his veto? That will be one of many interesting things to look for when the General Assembly reconvenes April 17. The Virginia Association of Counties is certainly pushing for an override.
Prediction: If Youngkin’s veto stands, how to pay for school construction will become of many issues in the 2025 governor’s race. Democrats have found few ways to break through in rural areas; might this be an issue where they could pick up some ground, by making the case that Youngkin’s policies are responsible for some of their schools remaining in poor condition?
The Democratic agenda in general: How much of that do voters want?
Youngkin has vetoed some of the things that Democrats hold dearest and want most to see: Legalization of retail cannabis. A higher minimum wage. Paid family leave. Restrictions on guns. There’s a long list. When Democrats won a slim majority in both houses last November, we all knew these bills were coming; we also knew vetoes were coming. No one should be surprised.
When the prospect of the sports arena in Alexandria first surfaced, there was speculation that perhaps there could be some grand bargain where everyone got something they wanted — the governor would get the arena and maybe some tax cuts, Democrats would get retail cannabis and a minimum wage increase. Clearly, in hindsight, that was as fantastical as a unicorn. There may be plenty of blame to go around — the governor often gets faulted for not engaging Democratic legislators early enough on the arena, but also at some point Democrats, especially senators, decided they didn’t need to do much negotiating because they know they’ll be around longer than the governor will be.
I thought Democrats would be more eager to get retail cannabis up and going and a minimum wage increase this year, but I’ve had some tell me they’re fine waiting two years until there’s a Democratic governor. That, of course, assumes Virginians will elect a Democratic governor in 2025. Democrats have been wrong before; they legalized personal possession of cannabis in 2021 and fully intended to come back in 2022 and set up the rules for a retail market — they never seem to have envisioned they’d lose both the governorship and the House in 2021. The same thing could happen again next year.
As a practical matter, much could depend on the presidential race — a Trump victory makes it easier for Democrats next year, a Biden victory makes it easier for Republicans. Regardless, Youngkin’s vetoes this year (and those he’ll probably issue next year) give both parties talking points: If you like all the bills the governor has vetoed, you should vote for Democrats next year because then you can get them. If you think the governor has saved us from all manner of misfortune, you should vote for Republicans who will block those measures again. Virginians obviously like Youngkin personally, but what do they think about his policies? In a way, Virginia’s election next year may be what defines Youngkin’s legacy: Do they think he’s been right to be Horatius at the bridge, or has he been wrong?
