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UPDATES AS OF 7 P.M., 1/14/2024:
· Earlier timing: Initial bands of snow may arrive even as early as pre-dawn hours on Monday, with intermittent periods of snow during the day Monday before main accumulating snow arrives by mid to late Monday afternoon through the evening and into early Tuesday.
· Larger amounts: Somewhat higher amounts than previously expected appear likely with widespread 1-3 inches over most of Southwest and Southside Virginia near and east of the Blue Ridge, 2- 6 inches to the west of the Blue Ridge (New River Valley, Mountain Empire areas), and potentially 4-8 inches over Southwest Virginia from Abingdon to Bluefield and westward. These are still subject to change and localized banding could raise totals over small areas.
· Warnings: Winter storm warnings now cover Grayson, Smyth and Bland counties and everything westward to the southwest tip of the state. Winter weather advisories extend eastward to Danville and Appomattox.
END UPDATE
A focused firehose of moisture spraying into recently refreshed Arctic air is expected to trigger a band of snow across the Tennessee Valley that will reach the southwest corner of Virginia during the day Monday, with lighter snow spreading over most of Southwest and Southside Virginia overnight Monday into early Tuesday.
The result, if it comes to fruition, could be the most widespread snowfall the Cardinal News coverage area has seen in what would be exactly two years as of Tuesday. It is not expected to be a “plowable” snowfall, or 3 inches or more, except in some counties west of Interstate 77, where winter storm warnings and watches were in effect for Monday and Tuesday as of Sunday morning, but snowfall of an inch or two may reach as far east as Roanoke and Lynchburg and enough to whiten the surface is a growing possibility regionwide.
For the latest watches and warnings in various parts of the region, please link to National Weather Service websites for offices in Blacksburg (most of region); Wakefield (eastern Southside); Sterling (some counties near I-64); Morristown, Tennessee; and Charleston, West Virginia (final two cover Southwest areas expecting most snow).
A strong pocket of upper-level winds is providing the lift for moisture to condense and fall as snow in a relatively narrow zone from southern Arkansas across the length of Tennessee to the southwest corner of Virginia, with 3-6 inches across much of that stretch. The upper-level wave responsible will tend to weaken and dry out headed eastward, but enough is expected to be left to spread widespread light snow Monday evening into early Tuesday over most of the rest of Virginia.
Overnight guidance data Saturday into early Sunday ticked upward with the probability and potential amounts of snowfall farther eastward in Virginia, and there is still time for forecasts to either move upward to more widespread 1-3 or 2-4-inch snow or slightly downward to something more streaky with only scattered light accumulations beyond the expected heavier snow zone in the southwest corner. And, of course, the actual results of the snow still have potential to be somewhat less or more than whatever is forecast, with some localized bands that vary from widespread amounts.
Southwest and Southside Virginia have seen little in the way of widespread or significant snowfall since 3-8 inches topped by sleet in a Jan. 16, 2022, winter storm. Streaky light accumulation snows occurred later that winter, a few times in a historically snowless 2022-23 winter and on a couple of dates earlier this winter. Even 1 inch of snow would be the largest snow in two years for several locations in our region and would exceed last winter’s season snowfall totals at many of them.
Keep in mind that winter weather advisories are typically issued where there is a reasonable expectation that 2 inches of snow may fall. Amounts less than that may not trigger advisories for your location but roads could still be slick with minor accumulations, or ice from early snow that melted and refroze later, as temperatures are expected to be falling through the 20s as snow is occurring.
The coldest morning since Christmas 2022 is expected on Wednesday, with single-digit to lower teens expected across the region. Another weather system by Friday and Saturday could pose a risk of wintry precipitation across part or all of the region.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley.
