And they’re off!
The General Assembly is now in session, with so many bills being introduced that the Division of Legislative Services — which processes those bills and gets them online — is running behind.
With some bills, they really don’t need to bother. Most of these bills won’t become law.
Even when Democrats controlled both chambers of the General Assembly, plus the governorship, only 57% of the bills passed. With a split legislature the past two years, the percentage of bills passed dropped to 40% in 2022 and 43% in 2023. This year, with Democrats in control of both chambers, we may see more bills passed, but that doesn’t mean they’ll become law, not with a Republican governor.
Some bills — the ideological ones introduced by Republicans — we know the outcome of already.
For instance, newly elected Del. Tim Griffin, R-Bedford County, has introduced bills to reinstate the death penalty, allow people to carry concealed handguns without a permit and do away with same-day voter registration. Those bills would have interesting prospects in a Republican legislature. With a Democratic majority, the only question is whether Democrats will kill them right away, or have some sport with them first the way a cat does with a mouse before delivering the fatal blow.
Likewise, I suspect the governor is putting in an order for more pens because he’ll need extra ink for all the Democratic bills he’ll veto.
Much of this session will be Shakespearean. More specifically, Macbeth, Act 5, Scene 5: “sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
Well, maybe not nothing. Many of those Republican bills that get killed, and those Democratic bills that get vetoed, will be the subject of many a campaign commercial in some future election — for both sides. “Can you believe what [insert party] tried to do?”
In other words, let’s not get too excited about some of these bills one way or another because many of them won’t become law. That leaves the question of which ones should we get excited about? This by no means is a complete list, but it is a list of 10 measures of particular interest to Southwest and Southside:
1. Alexandria sports arena
Yes, I know that Alexandria is on the other side of the state from us, but hang on, there are potential connections to Southwest and Southside.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin wants to bring the NBA’s Washington Wizards and NHL’s Washington Capitals to Alexandria, just as three decades ago then-Gov. Douglas Wilder tried to bring Washington’s NFL team to Alexandria. That deal obviously didn’t happen; what about this one? The politics of this are fascinating: The Associated Press suggests that Democrats might be more open to this deal than Youngkin’s fellow Republicans are. Many Democrats are also geographically closer to the teams’ fan base than Republicans are. To make this deal happen, the General Assembly needs to pass legislation to create a sports authority that would own the property — and issue bonds that would get repaid through the tax revenue the site generates.
As I pointed out in Tuesday’s column, this arena could be the subject of a lot of legislative horse-trading. State Sen. Louise Lucas, D-Portsmouth, who chairs Senate Finance, has made it clear she has no interest in backing the arena — unless the state comes up with money to reduce or remove the tolls from the two tunnels that connect her district with Norfolk. What will other legislators want? If they’re not setting a price for their votes, they ought to be (unless, of course, they’re just philosophically opposed to the whole notion of a state role in sports arenas). Those who are philosophically flexible on the matter ought to be able to get something, though.
2. Cannabis
Democrats, led by state Sen. Adam Ebbin, D-Alexandria, will renew their push to create a legal retail market for what we used to call marijuana. Or pot. Or weed. Or the devil’s lettuce. There will surely be lots of haggling over the details but ultimately I’d expect something to pass. Depending on how the bill is written, a lot of Republicans seem inclined to go along with retail cannabis, if only as a way to crack down on the black market (and bring in more tax revenue). The big question: Will Youngkin actually sign a cannabis bill? Another question, one that so far only I seem to be posing (as least in public): Will this bill be written to guarantee that some of the production jobs go to rural areas? I’ve written before about ways that could be done.
3. Constitutional amendments
Here’s where Democrats can act without worrying about what the governor will do. With a majority, they can pass proposed amendments to the state constitution — those don’t go through the governor. Virginia requires those amendments to be passed twice, with a legislative election in between, so the earliest any of these could go to a referendum would be November 2026, but the process can start now.
Democrats are expected to set in motion at least three constitutional amendments: one to guarantee the right to an abortion, a second to automatically restore civil rights to convicted felons once they’ve served their time, and a third to remove from the state constitution the language that bans same-sex marriage.
That prohibition on same-sex marriage was rendered moot by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in 2015, but if the high court ever reversed that decision, then Virginia’s ban would come back into force. That ban was called the Marshall-Newman Amendment after its sponsors at the time, then-Del. Bob Marshall, R-Manassas, and then-state Sen. Steve Newman, R-Bedford County. Both are now gone from the legislature, Marshall by defeat, Newman by retirement.
There are other proposed amendments that have been introduced — Del. Tom Garrett, R-Buckingham County, has one to allow governors to seek reelection; state Sen. Mark Peake, R-Lynchburg, has one to impose term limits on the lieutenant governor and attorney general. In theory, neither of those is partisan, but Democrats will probably be wary of loading up too many constitutional amendments for that 2026 ballot.
4. The New College Institute
Youngkin has zeroed out funding for the Martinsville educational entity in the second year of his budget, and required a business plan, presumably as a prerequisite for future funding. State Sen. Bill Stanley, R-Franklin County and chair of the institute’s board, is particularly unhappy about this. This is ultimately something that will be decided in the budget but it’s worth calling special attention to. The institute is not helped by the fact that it’s hard to describe. It was founded with the idea that it might evolve into a four-year state university — hence the generic name — but that hasn’t happened and isn’t likely to. With colleges across the country staring at an “enrollment cliff” of potential students brought on by demographic trends, Virginia’s not in any mood to create a new university.
Instead, NCI has pursued a different path, focusing on workforce training. Stanley makes a passionate case for why NCI is a necessity for the Martinsville-Henry County area as it tries to build a new economy — if it were to fail, that would send a bad signal about the region, he says. Youngkin no doubt takes a more distant, and more corporate view, that it needs a business plan. We’ll see whose will prevails here.
5. Sales tax for schools
There’s a separate category on taxes coming up but here’s another tax-related question: Which localities, if any, should be allowed to raise their local sales tax for schools? Right now, a mish-mash of nine localities have permission from the state to do so: the counties of Charlotte, Gloucester, Halifax, Henry, Mecklenburg, Northampton, Patrick and Pittsylvania and the city of Danville. Prince Edward County, which has a school with such a leaky roof that three rooms are unusable, has been trying to get permission to do so. Last year, then-Del. Jim Edmunds, R-Halifax County, introduced a bill to give Prince Edward that authority; fellow Republicans voted it down because they’re averse to taxes, even if approved in a local referendum. This year, Prince Edward is represented in the House by Del. Tommy Wright, R-Lunenburg County, and he’s back with that bill.
Meanwhile, state Sen. Jeremy McPike, D-Prince William County, has introduced a bill (SB14) that would give all localities this authority. Look for a companion bill on the House side. I’d expect these bills to pass; how will Youngkin view these? Will he see these as tax bills — or as local empowerment bills? And would he oppose these sales tax bills when he’s trying to raise the sales tax as part of his budget plan?
6. Secretary of Rural Affairs
Earlier this year, a University of Virginia law professor and one of his students (Andrew Block and Antonella Nicholas) wrote a law review article about rural Virginia. As part of that, they made the case for a Cabinet secretary devoted to rural areas. I’ve written that there’s been quite a interest in such a position, and former Secretary of Commerce and Trade Michael Schewel has written about why it’s a bad idea. I’ve also look at how Canada has a national cabinet position dedicated to rural areas and interviewed the first minister to hold that position to see how it worked there. Now. Del. Israel O’Quinn, R-Washington County, has introduced a measure (HJ32) to call for a formal study about creating a Secretary of Rural Affairs. Update: Sen. Lashrecse Aird, D-Petersburg, will sponsor the Senate version (SJ21).
7. Shared solar
Anything dealing with energy is complicated — and political. “Shared solar” allows people who otherwise wouldn’t have access to solar panels to band together to buy solar power jointly — for instance, those in apartments or townhomes. In 2020, the General Assembly created a shared solar program, but only for customers of Dominion Energy. Now, Del. Rip Sullivan and Sen. Scott Surovell, both D-Fairfax County, have bills that would expand that statewide. Appalachian Power, which serves much of the western part of the state, historically hasn’t liked this. For more details on shared solar, see the story that Cardinal’s Megan Schnabel wrote in 2022.
8. ‘Skill’ games
Those electronic games you often see in convenience stores are either “skill games” (if you’re in favor) or “neighborhood slot machines” (if you’re against). The former name is used most commonly so we’ll stick with that. They were legal, now they aren’t — but there’s a push to make them legal again (and regulated and taxed). There’s a bipartisan lineup behind the bills that makes state Sen. Louise Lucas, D-Portsmouth, and Del. Terry Kilgore, R-Scott County, into unlikely allies. I’ve written before about how the revenue from these games has a disproportionate benefit for certain rural areas.
9. Taxes
There are lots of moving parts here. The two big ones are the governor’s twin proposals: to lower the income tax and raise (and expand) the sales tax. There’s bipartisan skepticism about the latter. Democrats see the sales tax as a regressive tax because lower-income people have to spend a greater share of their income on it. Republicans aren’t keen on raising taxes, period, and now represent a lot of those lower-income voters.
An analysis by the left-leaning Commonwealth Institute for Fiscal Analysis says Virginians making $58,000 or less would wind up paying more. If localities were people, that means most of Southwest and Southside — the heart of the Republican legislative delegation — would pay more, while Democratic-voting localities in Northern Virginia would pay less. (The per capita income in Roanoke County is $43,125; the per capita income in Loudoun County is $67,251.)
Youngkin sees things quite differently. Here’s what press secretary Christian Martinez says: “In the first two years, Governor Youngkin has delivered $5 billion in tax relief for all Virginians which included nearly doubling the standard deduction, eliminating the state portion of the grocery tax, and making the earned income tax credit refundable. These actions have made Virginia’s tax code more progressive. His proposed budget outlines a plan to reduce costs for all Virginia taxpayers by cutting tax rates across the board by 12% and empowers low-income Virginians by increasing the earned income tax credit, including those who make over $17,000 a year and pay the top marginal tax rate ensuring low-income filers can receive a refund even with minimal or no tax liability. The net effect of all tax actions signed or currently proposed by Governor Youngkin is to make Virginia’s tax code fairer and more competitive.”
Meanwhile, there are other tax proposals floating around. State Sen. David Suetterlein, R-Roanoke County, and Del. Joe McNamara, R-Roanoke County, want to eliminate the sales tax on food, for instance. And then there are those sales tax-for-schools bills I mentioned earlier. In fact, there are so many tax bills — to raise, to lower, to make some technical change — that it’s hard to keep track of them all. McNamara alone has eight. (Republicans, rest assured: McNamara’s not one of the tax-raisers.)
10. Tobacco Commission
Last year, Del. Jason Ballard, R-Giles County, introduced a bill to add Giles County and Pulaski County to the territory covered by the Tobacco Commission (and eligible for its economic development funds). That bill was defeated, but he vowed to come back, and he is. This year’s bill would add all the localities in Planning District 4 — Floyd County is already a member but Ballard’s bill would add Giles and Pulaski, plus Montgomery County and Radford.
Here’s some information Ballard might find useful — or not. In 1929, the nation’s agricultural census found that all those localities, with the exception of Radford, were growing tobacco. Now for the downside: They weren’t growing much. Montgomery had just 48 acres, Pulaski had just 20 acres, Giles only 2.
Giles, though, did go on to become home to the Celanese plant that made filters for cigarettes, so it’s certainly been affected by the downtown in tobacco. Back on the plus side: Montgomery and Pulaski grew more tobacco than some counties that have been in Tobacco Commission territory from the get-go. Carroll County grew just 30 acres in 1929; Grayson County just 6.Whatever happens with this bill, I’ll point out what I did a year ago: These counties all are affected by the same economic convulsions that have overthrown traditional employment sectors. It’s hard for me to make the case that college-dominated economies such as Montgomery County and Radford need help from the Tobacco Commission, but if Giles and Pulaski can’t share in the Tobacco Commission funds, then what fund should be set up to benefit them — and other rural localities just like them? Perhaps some revenue from that sports arena in Alexandria should come their way? There’s a grand bargain for you.
