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Hurricane Idalia’s passing delivered cool mornings and a jaw-dropping, flaming sunset (scroll down for more photos) to Southwest and Southside Virginia last week, but summer heat came back with a vengeance this week.
The latest expansion of the heat dome over our region will meet a similar fate as its previous brief intrusions have this summer, with northwest flow bringing new cold fronts down to curb the heat the remainder of this week, kicking up some showers and thunderstorms (though likely not nearly enough rain for the extreme dryness licking at region’s northern edges – see third segment about that).
And, for the first time, there are growing signs the persistent summer balloon of hot air may be about to pop for good.
Temperatures over the past week have ranged from the mid-40s on a couple mornings late last week in some rural valleys to the mid-90s at several lower elevation locations in the Roanoke Valley and east of the Blue Ridge on Tuesday. Tuesday’s highs were close to or, in some cases like Blacksburg’s high of 91, slightly higher than the hottest temperatures of summer experienced during the short hot spells of late July and late August.
Wednesday’s highs, being reached about the time this column was scheduled to post in late afternoon, were expected to be similar to Tuesday’s. But, after that, temperatures start backing down to mostly 80s highs for the rest of the week, and likely drop to mostly 70s with some lower 80s by early next week.
Looking out about a week to 10 days, there may be a downright frosty dip into the Great Lakes region, with some of that spilling toward us with below-normal temperatures.
The atmospheric furniture is beginning to be rearranged with some northern latitude blocking high pressure developing that will force cooler air masses southward over the eastern U.S. and a southwestward retreat, and perhaps total dissolution, of the summer “heat dome” high-pressure that we’ve been talking about since June, expanding and contracting to our west.
There may be another hurricane involved next week too, named Lee, spinning somewhere just east of the U.S. (some chance it’s very close to the East Coast, definitely worth watching). The counterclockwise circulation around that storm, presuming it goes east of us, would help circulate cooler air southward from Canada with a bit more gusto.
Rule No. 6 of August 9’s “7 things to know about hurricane season in inland Virginia,” which is “Hurricanes help autumn happen,” may need to be invoked again.
That’s not all hurricanes missing us to the east help bring.
But what about that sunset?
Hurricane Idalia brought serious issues with wind damage and flooding from Florida to South Carolina. For our backyard, though, it may be best known for an extremely bright and colorful sunset sky painting that produced an outpouring of photos posted on social media on Wednesday, August 30.
This is not the first time over the years we have seen such a sunset display as a hurricane goes safely by us. Hurricane Dorian in early September 2019 provided extraordinary sunset scenes on consecutive nights.
When a hurricane passes a few hundred miles to our east and southeast, the clockwise outflow venting the storm often puts us under a wide shield of cirrus clouds, ice-crystal clouds 4 or more miles up.
When the late day sun is able to shine underneath these clouds, lighting the underside, it results in a spectacular display of red, pink and orange colors. The sun’s light often highlights perturbations and underhanging cloud formations in the cirrus shield. That’s what gives it the swirly impressionist painting look.
Serious drought on northern doorstep
Rainfall has been inconsistent and splotchy across Southwest and Southside Virginia this summer, but most locations have had enough to avoid major drought (and some spots last week teetered into flash flooding).
Much of Northern Virginia, extending almost as far southward as where our coverage area begins near Interstate 64, has experienced a continual and extreme lack of rainfall in previous months going back to spring, to the extent that usually rushing streams and rivers have largely dried up.
The northwest flow has helped short-circuit heat waves for Virginia all summer, but it hasn’t helped bring much rainfall, beyond sporadic showers and storms. The only significant bodies of water to our northwest are the Great Lakes, and whatever moisture can be carried on northwest winds from those often dries up crossing the Appalachians.
We need moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico and/or the western Atlantic to bring widespread, significant rainfall. That has been largely lacking this summer, with brief instances of it mostly affecting the southern parts of Virginia, however unevenly, not extending much past Interstate 64.
Beyond the obvious concerns for agriculture in affected areas, ongoing drought will increase wildfire risk as we get into windier weather patterns later this fall, and may sour the fall colors in areas most affected.
El Niño often begins bringing a train of moisture-bearing storm systems across the southern U.S. by late fall and winter, some of them climbing up the East Coast. We’ll keep an eye out for this pattern actually developing and whether it can possibly bring sustained relief to dry areas in and near our region.
Heat prediction contest
The contest period for the heat prediction contest ended on August 31. This week’s high temperatures, even if they’re a little warmer, won’t count as the highest temperature for any of the 12 regional sites in the contest.
The contest has, somewhat expectedly, ended in a multiple-way tie among several entries that picked the correct highest temperature of the summer for the particular station chosen among the 12. All of those entries are winners, but only one will get the gift card, based on the first-to-my-inbox tiebreaker.
I hope to announce the winners in the next couple of weeks after double-checking some things.
By that time, it will be almost time to consider the second Cardinal Weather snowfall prediction contest.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley.
