Grab your Prilosec, your Xanax or, for some of you, something stronger brewed or grown-up the hollow on Copperhead Road — whatever it is that soothes your heartburn or calms your nerves. The latest Roanoke College poll has just enough good news for Democrats to unsettle Republicans, but not enough good news to leave Democrats worry-free.
You may have already read about the headline numbers — Kamala Harris holds a lead of 3 percentage points over Donald Trump in Virginia, a figure that’s within the margin of error. Now let’s take a deeper dive. First, a key consumer advisory:
Not all polls are the same
Democrats got worried, and Republicans got excited, when a flurry of polls in July showed the race tied in Virginia. Some polls (from Emerson College and Florida Atlantic University) even showed Trump with a slight lead in Virginia, although within the margin of error.
Either way, those were significant results because Democrats have now carried the Old Dominion in four straight presidential elections. If Democrats were in trouble in Virginia, that suggested they were in even deeper trouble elsewhere — and, indeed, there were lots of polls then showing Trump leading Biden in one swing state after another.
Those polls in other states now show some momentum for Harris, although there’s still much dispute among pollsters as to how much. Here is where the details really matter. Is this a poll of likely voters or registered voters or adults? Roanoke College surveys likely voters, which is the best choice — people who aren’t registered, or who are registered but don’t plan to vote, really don’t matter. Also, is this a survey of a two-way race or does it include more candidates? The reality is that there will be other candidates on the ballot, so I’d contend the head-to-head matchups here aren’t as realistic as the ones that include various third-party candidates. The trick in Virginia is that we don’t know yet which of those third-party candidates will make the ballot.
The data website FiveThirtyEight ranks pollsters based on the confidence it has in them. Roanoke College gets a rating of 2.6 stars out of a possible 3.0 and ranks 31st out of 277 pollsters graded — in the polling world, this is like a school being named a Top 50 research university. Only three polls got a perfect 3.0 rating: New York Times/Siena College, ABC News/Washington Post and Marquette University. From that (plus my own understanding of how accurate the Roanoke College poll has been in the past), we can move forward with assurance that, historically, this has been a pretty good poll.
Here are 10 insights into what this poll tells us about the presidential race, plus two bonus insights about other political figures in Virginia.
1. The race hasn’t changed that much. Or has it?
Given what I said above, we should probably look at the scenarios with more than just two presidential candidates on the ballot. We won’t know until early September which third-party candidates have made the ballot, but some always do — the last two-way presidential race in Virginia was back in 1928 between Herbert Hoover and Al Smith.
With all the likely third-party contenders listed, the Roanoke College poll found Harris at 45%, Trump at 42%, Robert F. Kennedy at 6%, and Cornel West and Libertarian Chase Oliver at 2% apiece. That difference of 3 percentage points isn’t much different from the 2-point gap that Biden had in May when the Roanoke College poll found the race at Biden 40%, Trump 38%, Kennedy 8% and others further back.
By that measure, not much has changed in the race, which sure seems at odds with what we’re seeing nationally, where there’s definitely been some movement toward Harris.
On the other hand, this is a swing from a poll in mid-July by Florida Atlantic University — taken before Biden dropped out — that showed a then-hypothetical race in Virginia as Trump 45%, Harris 41%, Kennedy 5%. However, a poll just before that by The New York Times/Siena College showed Virginia as Harris 43%, Trump 39% and Kennedy 7%.
If we just compare the two Roanoke College polls, then Harris hasn’t really improved on Biden’s showing. If we compare Roanoke College to Florida Atlantic, she’s turned things around. If we compare Roanoke College to New York Times/Siena College, then she’s slipped a bit. Let’s move on.
2. Trump is in better shape in Virginia than he was at this point in 2020 or 2016.
Even if Trump is down by 3 percentage points in Virginia right now, he’s closer to winning the state than he was in his previous two runs. At this point in 2020, the Roanoke College poll showed Virginia as Biden 53%, Trump 39%. At this point in 2016, the Roanoke College poll had the race at Hillary Clinton 48%, Trump 32%. In both cases, the Democratic candidate went on to carry the state. Right now, the Roanoke College poll points to a closer contest in Virginia for Harris than either Biden or Clinton faced. Here might be the reason why:
3. Trump’s favorable rating is second-highest he’s ever had in Virginia
More people have an unfavorable opinion of Trump than a favorable one, but that’s also true for almost every politician asked about in this poll. Let’s just look at the favorable rating. It’s at 40%, the Roanoke College poll says. That’s up from 36% in May and up from 30% a year ago this time, and far higher than the 24% it was in February 2021, a month after he’d left office. Only once in the nearly nine years that the Roanoke College poll has been asking about Trump has he polled this high — 41% in October 2020, a month before he lost the state to Biden.
4. Virginians think only marginally better of Harris than they do Trump
The favorable rating for Harris is 43%, just 3 percentage points better than Trump. Her unfavorable rating is 53%, while Trump’s is 57%. On the plus side for Harris, her favorable rating is noticeably higher than Biden’s — he’s at 37% in Virginia.
Also of note: These figures are at odds with what we’ve seen in national polls. A recent national poll by Emerson College found that Harris was the only national figure who had more favorables than unfavorables (although it was close). It seems odd to me that Harris would poll so well nationally but not so well in Virginia, a four-time Democratic state.
5. Trump is winning independents, although Harris is gaining ground
If I were to single out one set of numbers (other than the bottom line), it would be this. Before Biden dropped out, Trump was thrashing him among independents, 46% to 21%. With Biden out and Harris in, she’s been able to win back a big chunk of independents but is still way behind with that voter group. In a two-way race, independents back Trump 50% to 34%. In the more likely five-way race, independents back Trump 47% to 35%.
By contrast, at this point four years ago, Biden was leading Trump among independents, 42% to 35%.
The Virginia number matches what we’ve seen both nationally and in certain other state polls: Harris has made gains with independents but still trails. For her to win, she’ll probably have to do better.
6. Harris has energized Democrats — and some independents — but there’s still an enthusiasm gap that benefits Republicans
The poll shows how dispirited Democrats were at the prospect of Biden heading their ticket again. Only 77% of Democrats said they supported Biden, compared to 87% of Republicans backing Trump. Now, with Harris, 90% of Democrats are behind her, while Trump is at 85% with Republicans.
I’m trying not to overload you with too many numbers, but a separate question in the poll gives insight about how enthusiastic people are about voting. Still, Republicans remain more excited than Democrats: 70% for Republicans, 62% for Democrats.
My take on these numbers: Harris needs to both energize Democrats (which she seems to be doing) but also needs to win back independents. That is a challenge for both parties because sometimes the things that fire up partisans aren’t the things that woo over independents.
7. Independents are concerned about things that help Trump more than Harris
The poll offers only limited insight into what motivates those independents. Here’s what we do know:
- They overwhelmingly think the country is on the wrong track — only 18% say it’s headed in the right direction.
- They think Trump would be tougher dealing with foreign adversaries, specifically Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
- They are more concerned about how Democrats pushed out Biden than they are about Trump being a threat to democracy.
None of that is happy news for Democrats. I must caution that there are surely other things that motivate independents; we’re just limited here by the data available.
8. A potential danger sign for Harris: liberalism
The poll found that 45% of those surveyed believe she’s to the left of Joe Biden, 37% about the same as Biden. That’s something that might excite Democrats but may not excite independents.
9. The top issue remains the economy
The list of top issues and their rankings remains the same: 48% say it’s the economy, far ahead of the 16% who say abortion or 15% who say immigration. (The poll doesn’t offer insight into which way voters feel on those topics, so don’t infer that all those who list abortion are pro-abortion rights or those who say immigration are anti-immigration.)
This suggests that the candidate who eventually wins will be the one who does the best job addressing voters’ concerns about the economy.
10. Voters say their interest level has increased
In May, 68% of those surveyed said they were almost certainly going to vote. By August, that figure was up to 77%. Is that because Harris has replaced Biden? Or simply because the election is now three months closer? We don’t know. However, at this point four years ago, the figure among likely voters was 97%, which suggests that something is still depressing voter interest even among those most inclined to vote.
Now, for the two bonus insights:
11. Kaine leads Cao by a wide margin
In the U.S. Senate race, the poll came back as Democrat Tim Kaine 49%, Republican Hung Cao 38%. That’s an almost exact match with what previous polls have shown. In early July, Virginia Commonwealth University put the race at Kaine 49%, Cao 39%.
This is why I am utterly baffled that Cao has skipped two debates with Kaine that are historically “must-attend” events, one before the Virginia Bar Association and the other before the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce. Both of these are influential audiences — influential audiences with money! Normally, a challenger wants as many opportunities as possible to stand on equal footing with an incumbent and land some blows. Both of these are big missed opportunities for Cao. I can’t tell if he’s simply disorganized, unprepared to debate, or thinks it’s a good strategic move to have just one debate in hopes that raises the attention level. For now, what I see is a candidate trailing by double digits who is passing up chances to knock down a popular incumbent. Also of note: Kaine’s favorables (50%) are higher than his unfavorables (41%). Cao’s not going to change that by staying home.
12. Youngkin gets a popularity boost
The poll gives Gov. Glenn Youngkin the highest approval rating he’s ever had — 59%. That’s up from 52% in May. It’s hard to tell what’s driving this — there have been no dramatic developments since May. A cynic might say that Virginians like Youngkin better when nothing much is going on, but the reality is that Youngkin has always polled well; his approval ratings have never been lower than 50%.
Here’s one key: He’s very popular among independents: 66% of independents approve of the job he’s doing. That’s far higher than they score any other politician or institution that the Roanoke College poll asked about. In second place among independents: the U.S. Supreme Court at 47%. In last place: Biden at 24%.
Finally, a personal observation: I’m not putting much stock in national polls until after the Democratic convention — we’ve had a politically tumultuous summer, so I’d like to wait for a while to see how things settle in. I also write a weekly political newsletter, West of the Capital, that goes out Fridays at 3 p.m. I’ll have a few more nuggets from this poll in this week’s edition. You can sign up for that or any of our other free newsletters below:
