Second in a four-part series on the Roanoke Valley’s water supply. Part one dealt with where the current water levels at the valley’s two main water sources stand compared to previous years.
In 2010, the Roanoke Valley-Alleghany Regional Commission set out to study the region’s water supply. It hired a well-known engineering firm that produced a 351-page report.
The bottom line: Given the valley’s population growth rates and water usage rates, the Roanoke Valley was projected to run out of water in 2060.
We are now closer to that date than we are to the date of the study, so it seems wise to check to see where we stand — particularly since the 2060 date is now being cited by those concerned about how much water Google’s data center in Botetourt County will suck out of the system. More to the point: Will that data center hasten the day when the Roanoke Valley runs out of water?
(Disclosure: We have received a grant from the Google News Initiative to support our expansion in the New River Valley, but donors have no say in news decisions; see our policy.)
Technically, yes. However, since that 2010 report was produced, the Roanoke Valley’s water usage has consistently run below what was projected — and the date at which the valley is set to run out of water is now closer to 2100. That’s according to Will Bulloss, chief strategy officer for the Western Virginia Water Authority, who has run the figures on the valley’s water supply and compared them to that 2010 report.
That 2010 report foresaw the valley’s water usage steadily increasing each year. Instead, the amount of water the authority treats each year (its measure for how much water goes into the system) has actually gone down.
In 2010, the authority treated more than 7.9 billion gallons of water. That fell to as low as 6.7 billion in 2023 (it was lower still, 6.6 billion, in the pandemic year of 2020, but that may not be the best measure). Last year, the volume edged back up to 7.4 billion — primarily because there’s repair work being done at the Spring Hill Reservoir, so the authority is drawing more from Carvins Cove, and the pipes leading from Carvins Cove have more leaks. (I’ll deal with those leaks in a future column; there’s fascinating data there.)
Interestingly, water usage was going down even as that 2010 report was being prepared. The authority’s highest water usage came in 2006, with 8.5 billion gallons. That means, even if we take last year’s 7.4 billion figure as the current benchmark (even though it’s unusually high due to the temporary switch to heavier reliance on an older part of the system), that’s still a 1.1 billion gallon drop from almost two decades earlier.
We’re even further below what we were projected to use. The 2010 report said that by 2025 the valley’s water usage would be 11.7 billion gallons a year, so even last year’s 7.4 billion figure is 4.3 billion gallons below where we were projected to be — that’s 36.4% below projections.
For those who are curious, Google has “reserved” 2 million gallons per day. At 365 days per year, that’s 730 million gallons a year, which means Google could open tomorrow (it won’t), use its maximum allotment and the valley would still be using less water than we did two decades ago. Google will use a lot of water, to be sure, but it’s not going to drain the valley’s water supply dry. This chart shows how the valley’s water usage has changed since 2005; the valley uses less water than it once did, largely due to more water-efficient appliances. The uptick in 2005 is attributed to repairs at the Spring Hollow reservoir, which has forced the Western Virginia Water Authority to use more water from Carvins Cove; the pipes leading from the cove have more leaks than elsewhere.
For now, the focus is on how the projections on water use haven’t panned out. We could open six water-guzzling Googles and still just be at the water usage we were projected to have at this point — and still have water left over. If Google built out to its aspirational end point and used 8 million gallons of water per day, that’s 5 billion gallons a year — which would put us above those 2010 projections. We’d still have water capacity left over, but we would then be on track for that run-out date of 2060 — assuming other water projections prove true, which so far they haven’t.
As of last year, the “unused capacity” in the Western Virginia Water Authority system was 24 million gallons per day (12 times more than what Google has reserved, three times its aspirational goal). However, the 2010 report projected that we’d have about 16 million gallons per day left at this point.
Why were these 2010 projections so far off?
It’s not that the engineers back then were wrong; it’s that the underlying facts have changed — often dramatically.
I detailed the reasons why the valley’s water usage is declining in a previous column: Water usage nationally is declining, primarily because of the National Energy Policy Act of 1992, which mandated more water-efficient appliances. Every time we replace an old toilet (the most thirsty appliance in a house) or an old showerhead, we wind up using less water.
The engineers in 2010 knew those changes were happening, but they couldn’t have foreseen just how much technology would reduce our everyday water use.
The economy of 2026 is also much different than the economy of 2010, and that has also driven down water use.
The authority has three types of water customers: residential, commercial and industrial. The residential usage has basically remained flat over the years, even as the Roanoke Valley has seen modest population growth. However, commercial and industrial water usage has fallen. Commercial water usage peaked in 2016 and is now down 12.9%. Industrial water usage peaked in 2014 and is now down 31.1%.
These dramatic drops in commercial and especially industrial water have come even though the number of commercial customers has increased and the number of industrial customers has stayed the same, according to authority records.
It’s possible that the nature of those businesses has changed. However, in general, businesses have become more water-efficient. If you think the change from a toilet that uses 7 gallons per flush to one that requires just 1.28 gallons makes a big difference, wait until you start thinking in industrial terms. Ford Motor Co. has reduced its water usage by 70%; we don’t have a Ford plant here, but you get the idea. The energy transition has also helped reduce water usage nationally; coal requires water in processing, while solar and wind energy do not. The point is that there are market pressures that are driving down water usage.
The Roanoke Valley also hasn’t seen the economic development that the 2010 report thought it might. That report wrote: “To account for the unanticipated arrival of unique large demand users (e.g., a bottling plant like Coca-Cola in WVWA service area, which uses approximately 135 MG), it will be assumed that a new large demand user will begin operation every ten years until 2060.” That simply hasn’t happened.
Since that 2010 water report, the Virginia Economic Development Partnership shows four jobs announcements in the Roanoke Valley of 300-plus jobs: Two were customer support operations, one was the Eldor auto parts factory in Botetourt County, the fourth was the recent announcement about the headquarters of the RINGANA skin care companies. None of those are water-intensive operations. There was a time a decade ago when the Roanoke Valley envisioned itself developing as a brewery center; the Oregon-based Deschutes Brewery had bought property and planned an East Coast operation. A related kombucha company soon announced, as well. Neither happened. One reason Google stands out (aside from the fact that data centers are controversial) is that it is water-intensive, which is something the Roanoke Valley hasn’t been accustomed to. In effect, it’s the “large demand user” the report envisioned, although Google’s water demands will be significantly more than Coca-Cola’s. Records show the Coke plant uses 260,000 gallons per day; Google has reserved 7.6 times that. Nonetheless, even with Google, the valley will still be using less water than we once did.
All these factors — more water efficiency, an economic forecast that didn’t pan out — help explain why the Roanoke Valley’s water usage hasn’t come close to meeting those 2010 projections and why the run-out date of 2060 is no longer applicable.
Coming Wednesday: A look at how much water is lost due to leaky pipes in the system.
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