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We have a new batch of population estimates that paint a more detailed picture of trends we’ve seen developing for several years now: Virginia’s population growth remains slow, but it’s ticking up slightly as more people move into the state than move out, a continued reversal of a decades-long trend. Beneath the surface of that modest population growth, people are moving out of the Washington suburbs and into virtually all of rural Virginia.
Those trends, which we’ve seen consistently now since the pandemic, are turning some long-held notions of Virginia’s demographics upside down:
Fairfax County continues to lose population, as it now has for every year since the 2020 census. If that continues through the rest of the decade, Fairfax will lose population for the first time in a decennial census since the 1830 count that measured the 1820s.
Danville, which has been losing population since 1990, last year turned around and posted a population gain. This year’s estimates show that population increase has not only continued, but accelerated, a remarkable turnaround for a city once laid low by the collapse of some of its major industries.
Martinsville’s population changes aren’t as dramatic, but they’re still in the same direction: It’s also gaining population again after steadily falling since 1970.
These new numbers come from the annual estimates from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia. They are different from the U.S. Census Bureau estimates, which also came out recently. The two estimates use different metrics, which explains the most confounding numbers:
The Census Bureau said that Roanoke was losing population, and its population decline was on pace to rival its steep decline in the 1960s. The Weldon Cooper numbers come to the opposite conclusion: These estimates say that Roanoke, which a year ago was losing population, is now gaining population and is slightly bigger than it was in the 2020 census. If such wildly different estimates seem baffling, just remember that a year ago the two estimates differed on whether Fairfax County was gaining or losing population. Now the two agree that Fairfax is losing population. Ultimately, that’s why we have a formal headcount every 10 years and don’t rely on estimates. With the exception of those Roanoke numbers, the two sets of estimates are generally in agreement about how Virginia’s population has changed since 2020.
Here are some of the highlights from the Weldon Cooper numbers that came out Tuesday.
Virginia’s population growth has picked up as more people continue to move in than move out
For about a decade, Virginia had seen more people move out than move in. Glenn Youngkin cited that statistic repeatedly during his 2021 campaign for governor. Those numbers turned around under his governorship and now seem to be solidifying. Since the 2020 census, Virginia has added 248,714 people, Weldon Cooper says. Of that population growth, 68.4% of it has come through more people moving in than moving out, the remainder from births outnumbering deaths. The Census Bureau had more detailed numbers on how much of that comes from domestic migration (not much) and how much comes from international immigration (a lot); Weldon Cooper does not. It just says that the state has seen 170,326 more people move in than move out, without getting into where they’re from.
A year ago, Virginia’s population growth from 2020 to 2024 was 1.9%; now the growth from 2020 to 2025 is 2.9%. That’s still relatively slow population growth but is trending upwards.
The Richmond area remains the fastest-growing part of the state
The demographic story of this decade is how population growth has shifted from Northern Virginia to the localities around Richmond — and the northern Shenandoah Valley.
The fastest-growing locality in the state remains New Kent County; its population is up 21.5% since 2020. Eight localities in all have posted double-digit growth rates; four are on the outskirts of the Richmond metro area: New Kent County, Goochland County at 15.0%, Louisa County at 12.8%, Chesterfield County at 10.1%.
In terms of raw numbers, Chesterfield County has added more new people than any other locality in the state — 36,753. Chesterfield outpaces Loudoun, which has added 25,720 people since the last census.
Smaller communities see some big gains
The Shenandoah Valley has been gaining population a long time, but now the rate has sped up. From 2020 to 2024, Staunton grew by 0.9%. Once 2020 to 2025 was factored in, growth jumped to 4.2%. Waynesboro did the same, from 3.3% to 7.9%.
We also now see population growth pushing deeper into Virginia. Lynchburg last year had grown 1.7% since the last census; now that’s up to 3.0%.
Danville, which last year saw its population decline turn around, now sees that 0.3% growth turn into 1.4% growth.
Martinsville, Radford, Roanoke and Salem were all listed last year as losing people; now they’re listed as gaining them.
The steepest population declines remain in two Southwest Virginia counties
Sussex County in Southside shows up with the steepest population decline, -8.6% since 2020, but those figures are skewed by the closure of a state prison and a change in where prisoners were counted, so doesn’t reflect the trends in the community. Let’s set Sussex aside and move on. Next come two localities in Southwest.
Buchanan County has lost 6.6% of its population since the 2020 census; Dickenson County 5.3%.
Buchanan’s population peaked at 37,989 in 1980, at the height of the coal boom brought on by the energy crises of the 1970s. Now it’s down to 19,002, about half that, a stark example of how the decline of the coal industry has ravaged the coal-mining parts of Appalachia.
Dickenson’s decline has been longer and slower. Dickenson peaked at 23,393 in 1950; now it’s down to 13,357.
However, the more significant population losses in Virginia may be on the other end of the state, in a most unlikely place: Fairfax County.
Fairfax County’s population losses are speeding up
On a percentage basis, the population decline in Fairfax seems fairly insignificant: -0.2% since 2020.
However, in a place the size of Fairfax (1,147,514 people) a small percentage still works out to a lot of people. Fairfax has lost 2,795 people. That’s more than any other locality in the state.
What really makes this important is that Northern Virginia in general, and Fairfax in particular, has been the state’s economic engine, so any negative demographic trends there will reverberate through the state’s economy, to the detriment of rural areas that depend on its revenues. We also see some impacts of this Fairfax County decline playing out in the General Assembly: There’s now a push to add Fairfax to the list of localities eligible for a casino as a way to generate additional revenue for the county.
The speed at which Fairfax’ population is shrinking has picked up. A year ago, it was estimated the county’s population was down by 714 from 2020 to 2025; now that figure has nearly quadrupled.
The traditional answer for Fairfax’s population losses has been high housing prices. These numbers come with no interpretation, so I’m sure many will follow. It’s important to note that estimates are intended to compute the population in each city and county in the state as of July 1, 2025 — which means they don’t fully capture the impact of President Donald Trump’s federal cutbacks or immigration crackdown. We should also emphasize that we were seeing these population losses in Fairfax before Trump took office for the second time; his policies may accelerate these outflows but these trends predate him.
Population losses in many rural areas are slowing down
Virtually all of Southwest Virginia and most of Southside Virginia continue to lose population, but those population losses are slowing down.
From 2020 to 2024, Tazewell County saw its population shrink by 1,857; from 2020 to 2025, that loss fell to 1,406, so something happened in the past year to close that gap.
Same thing in Wythe County. From 2020 to 2024, the county lost 375 people. Add in another year and its loss since 2020 decreased to 138.
Halifax County was an even more dramatic change. From 2020 to 2024, the county lost 1,205 people but from 2020 to 2025, the county’s population was down just 654.
What’s going on? All those counties saw an influx of new residents moving in. They weren’t enough to erase the population deficit, but they were enough to reduce it.
Virginia Beach’s population losses are slowing down
The other place that has been showing up in recent years for its large population decline has been Virginia Beach. The estimates show Virginia Beach is still losing population, just not as much as before. A year ago, Virginia Beach had lost 6,505 people since the last census. Now that’s down to a loss of 5,462.
While the Southwest and Southside counties saw their population losses slow because of an influx of new people moving in, Virginia Beach did not. The city continues to see more people moving out than moving in, and at about the same rate as before. What’s happened over the past year in Virginia Beach has been a different demographic trend — a baby boom, with the surplus of births over deaths helping to reduce the population loss.
That’s a cue for tomorrow’s edition, where I’ll take a closer look at what’s driving some of these population changes elsewhere — including the accelerating population growth in Danville and those bizarrely conflicting numbers for Roanoke.
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