4 things to know about the court ruling that, for now, blocks Virginia’s redistricting

Virginia Democrats wanted to eliminate four Republican congressional seats through a mid-decade redistricting, which required some unusual legislative manuevers to make happen. On Tuesday, a judge in Tazewell County ruled that those were against the law.

Democrats will appeal this as quickly as they can, so this is by no means the end. As Winston Churchill famously said after the Battle of El Alamein: “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

In the meantime, here are four observations, the same number of Republican seats that had been in jeopardy.

1. This ruling shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone

Republicans went venue-shopping and filed their suit in Tazewell County, where it landed before a judge who once was a Republican candidate for the General Assembly. That doesn’t invalidate his legal logic, though. I’m not a lawyer so I’m in no position to evaluate that, but, politically, we shouldn’t be surprised that a conservative judge agreed with the conservative arguments in the case.

2. If Democrats ultimately lose, it will be because of a Democratic initiative

The state constitution requires the General Assembly to pass a constitutional amendment twice, with an election in between. Democrats contend that intervening election was last Nov. 4. Republicans counter that Democrats were too late, because early voting started in September and the special session was in late October. There are other aspects to the judge’s ruling but if the timing proves to be the fatal flaw for Democrats, it will be because they pushed for early voting.

3. There are some Democratic winners in this ruling

Obviously if this ruling stands, the big winners are the four Republican House members whose seats Democrats were targeting — Rob Wittman in the 1^st, Jen Kiggans in the 2^nd, John McGuire in the 5^th and Ben Cline in the 6^th.

However, there are some Democratic winners, notably the three contenders for the Democratic nomination in the 6^th District — Pete Barlow, Ken Mitchell and, most especially, Beth Macy.

While no official maps had been released, all the maps floating around in public showed only one way for Democrats to draw a 10-1 map — by “burying” the Republican-voting Shenandoah Valley in elongated Democratic districts emanating out of Northern Virginia and by drawing the Roanoke Valley into a district with Charlottesville and Albemarle County.

The former would have been bad news for Barlow (from Augusta County) and Mitchell (from Rockingham County) because both would have wound up in suburban-based districts that already have Democratic incumbents.

The latter would have been bad news for Macy, because she’d have been put in a district where a) there are other candidates from Charlottesville and Albemarle, most notably former Rep. Tom Perriello and b) the Charlottesville area would have twice as many Democratic voters as Macy’s base in the Roanoke Valley. In a 10-1 map, she might not have survived a Democratic primary. With the current map, she’d be considered the favorite for the nomination, although still an underdog to Cline in what has been the state’s second most Republican congressional district.

Barlow had already opposed redistricting; Mitchell and Macy should be cheering this ruling and hope it stands if they really want to be nominees. The ruling is especially propitious for Macy, who on Tuesday picked up an endorsement from Gov. Abigail Spanberger (who has also endorsed Perriello in the 5^th).

4. Democrats might pick up at least two of these seats without redistricting

President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are under 50% in both the 1^st and 2^nd districts; both Wittman and Kiggans are considered vulnerable in the districts as they are now. That means the Democratic push for redistricting could really be a fight not over four districts but two — the 5^th and the 6^th. Ironically, two of the most prolific Democratic fundraisers so far are in those two districts — Perriello and Macy.

We’ll get a new round of congressional finance reports later this week, which will give us a better look at where things stand financially, but Republicans shouldn’t consider themselves home free and Democrats may not want to consider this as devastating a loss as it appears to be.

And now, onto the appeals process.

I’ll have more to say about this ruling in this week’s edition of West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter. Sign up here: