Update 8 p.m.: As of 8 p.m., power outages had ballooned in Washington County to over 10,000 customers affected, with another 5,000 in Smyth County. Power had been mostly restored in Scott County, with 500 remaining still without power in Grayson County. There were no significant large power outages elsewhere in Virginia, largely because freezing rain ended up being minimal outside these counties.
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A multifaceted winter storm has delivered on depositing its glacier of mixed precipitation on most of Virginia as of Sunday morning, though varying somewhat from the specifics of many forecasts that preceded it.
Precipitation that began as snow Saturday afternoon and evening switched rapidly to sleet overnight, and sleet has been continuing over a large section of Virginia this morning, with 2-6 inch totals of combined snow and sleet common and continuing to build.
What has been limited in Virginia, so far, is freezing rain, really only being severe as of mid-morning Sunday in the localities bordering Tennessee in the southwest corner of the state.
As of 11 a.m., about 6,500 utility customers were without power in Southwest Virginia, the bulk of them in Washington County, with just over 5,000 with no electricity. Neighboring counties Smyth, Scott and Grayson counties had about 500 each without power.
Some of the southwest corner warmed above freezing early Sunday, as did the southeast corner around Hampton Roads. The rest of the state remains in the icebox, mostly in the teens and 20s.
The freezing rain threat is not over for Virginia, as sleet is still expected to change to freezing rain later this afternoon in many locations experiencing sleet, but the fact that is has sleeted so long without freezing rain over such a large area already reduces the potential for extreme ice, and that extends into North Carolina where there were fears of a catastrophic ice storm. Some tree damage and additional power outages are still possible in parts of Virginia if, when and where freezing rain materializes later today before the storm ends tonight.
The most disastrous freezing rain has been occurring in a region stretching from northern Alabama and Mississippi across northern Louisiana into eastern Texas, with about 700,000 utility customers without power at mid-morning Sunday.
Travel has been rendered hazardous to nearly impossible in many areas, with major highways being the focus of early clearing operations.
Virginia State Police said that as of 6 a.m. that officers had responded to 177 crashes statewide, 14 of which had injuries, with one fatality in northern Virginia. This included 26 crashes with 1 injury in its Southwest Virginia division, 23 crashes with two injuries in its central/western Virginia division, and 31 crashes with four injuries in its Roanoke/western Virginia division.
On Thursday, Gov. Abigail Spanberger declared a state of emergency in advance of the winter storm, and President Donald Trump has approved Virginia’s request for emergency assistance for the effects of the storm.
The winter storm is a result of an upper-level low traversing the southern U.S., lifting abundant moisture into an advancing Arctic air mass pushing southward over the central and eastern U.S. At one point, winter storm watches and warnings extended from New Mexico to Maine covering varying aspects of the winter storm.
Though social media chatter based on errant smartphone apps and premature forecast model scenarios drummed up visions of huge snow totals in Virginia and neighboring states of the South and Mid-Atlantic, the broad atmospheric pattern never really supported that kind of snowfall in our region, pushing it more to the north. Reputable forecasters attempted to tone down high-end expectations through the week while at the same time communicating that a high-impact winter storm would occur.
In Virginia, the storm varied somewhat from details of many forecasts in the final 24-48 hours as snow changed to sleet faster than expected and sleet did not change to freezing rain as early as expected.
The answer to the pre-storm question of which would be stronger, milder air moving in at high levels of the atmosphere, or cold air banked against the mountains, was … both. The warmer air aloft proved a little faster than expected, switching snow to sleet a couple hours faster than expected as it pressed northward, but the Arctic air pressed against the Appalachians by high pressure to the north was colder, deeper, and more expansive than many forecasts, keeping precipitation as sleet longer and farther south than many forecasts.
This winter storm is only the beginning of what could be one of Virginia’s most wintry periods in many years. An Arctic cold front will bring gusty winds by Monday and below-zero to single-digit lows by Tuesday morning, with cold temperatures lingering through the week and likely beyond. Additional wintry precipitation chances may develop in the next couple of weeks.
This snow-sleet-icepack isn’t going anywhere soon.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley.
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