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Virginia shakes a little each year with maybe a dozen small earthquakes. With the exception of the 2011 quake in Louisa County that collapsed several buildings and damaged the local high school, we don’t even notice most of these tremors.
On Nov. 4, Virginia experienced a political earthquake, and while we’ve been focused on the big changes to the landscape since then — an incoming Democratic trifecta in the state’s highest offices and an expanded Democratic majority in the House of Delegates — those are all temporary things that could be swept away with the next election.
However, there were two other ways the political ground in Virginia shifted that might have a more lasting impact.
Spotsylvania County and Waynesboro voted Democratic in a gubernatorial election for the first time in 40 years. Those are two very different communities, but the election results in both can be explained the same way: a combination of changing demography and political realignments.
In the case of Spotsylvania County, what we see is Northern Virginia creeping southward, so on the map, Spotsylvania’s flip from red to blue doesn’t look as dramatic as it is on the ground. Four years ago, Democrat Terry McAuliffe managed just 39.5% of the vote in Spotsylvania. This year, Democrat Abigail Spanberger took 51.36%. In terms of raw votes, Republican Winsome Earle-Sears didn’t run that far behind what Glenn Youngkin won there in 2021 — 29,015 for her, versus 32,478 for him four years ago, so a drop-off of 3,436 votes. Nonetheless, Earle-Sears posted the second-highest vote total for a Republican candidate in Spotsylvania County ever. Unfortunately for her, Spanberger grew the Democratic vote by 9,322 votes. This suggests that Spotsylvania saw a lot of new voters this year and most of them voted Democratic. There’s no guarantee that this is a lasting change, of course, but given how counties to the north have moved to the left, we shouldn’t be surprised if Spotsylvania does the same.
Waynesboro might seem more unusual. It’s a city in the Shenandoah Valley, which has been the Republican heartland in Virginia going back to the 1870s. Waynesboro is often described as an “industrial” city — it’s home to what used to be a DuPont chemical plant best known for contaminating the Shenandoah River with mercury. The company is now called Invista, but the mercury is still there in the water, which is why there are health warnings about eating fish out of the river. Industrial cities have generally turned red, not blue, politically speaking, which makes the case of Waynesboro even more interesting. What is going on here?
As it turns out, the description of Waynesboro as an industrial city is simply wrong. The giant plant remains, but the community around it has changed; Waynesboro is now better described as a commuter outpost of Charlottesville. As the city has changed demographically, it’s also changed politically — and this year’s election provides confirmation of that.
As we saw with Spotsylvania County, Earle-Sears polled fewer votes in Waynesboro than Youngkin did four years prior, but she still had the second-highest Republican total on record for a gubernatorial candidate. Measured against other Republican candidates, she did quite well; she just couldn’t keep up with Youngkin, who may come to be seen as an anomaly. Her vote total in Waynesboro was only down by 436 — from 4,473 for Youngkin to 4,037 for her. Spanberger, though, cranked out Democratic voters at a rate never before seen in Waynesboro in a gubernatorial year — from 3,275 four years ago to 4,459 this year. That’s an increase of 1,184 votes.
Here’s another way to measure how the vote in Waynesboro has changed. Let’s go back to 2017, another Democratic (and anti-Trump) year in Virginia, but one where the Republican candidate for governor still won Waynesboro. From 2017 to 2025, the Republican vote in Waynesboro grew by 893 votes. However, in that same time, the Democratic vote there grew by 4,196 votes — an increase of 1,806 votes. In percentage terms, the Republican vote from 2017 to 2025 grew by 28.4% but the Democratic vote grew by 68% — and that faster-growing blue trend line has overtaken the slower-growing red trend line.
How has this happened? Simple: Waynesboro has changed. Here are all the ways how.
Waynesboro is growing faster than the state average
Since the 1960s, Waynesboro’s population growth has generally lagged behind the state average. In the 1970s, when the state was expanding, Waynesboro’s population actually shrank. Since 2020, though, Waynesboro’s population growth has exceeded the state’s, on a percentage basis. Virginia’s is up a scant 1.9%, while Waynesboro’s population is up by 3.3%. That may not be much of a change, but it is a change. It’s particularly unusual for a city. Statewide, cities have only seen their population grow by 0.5% since 2020. Waynesboro’s growth rate is 6.6 times that.
We usually see surrounding counties grow their population faster than cities, but that’s not the case here. Augusta County’s population is up by 0.5% since 2020, right at the state average. Waynesboro, though, is a population growth engine — and the new residents it attracts appear to be more likely to be Democrats than Republicans.
Most of Waynesboro’s new residents are from outside the area
The best way to track where these new residents are coming from is through the Internal Revenue Service, which publishes regular data on where people are moving — in the aggregate, not individually. Unfortunately, the IRS is slow (anybody waiting on a refund check already knows this), so the most recent data is from 2022.
That year, the IRS says 2,031 people moved into Waynesboro while 1,759 moved out, a net gain of 272 people. For comparison purposes, that year Lynchburg saw a net loss of 472 people, Roanoke saw a net loss of 1,093 and Richmond saw a net loss of 1,883. Danville rightly bills itself as the “comeback city.” It saw a net gain of 26 that year, which makes Waynesboro’s growth rate even more remarkable.
Of those 2,031 new people moving into Waynesboro, 576 came from Augusta County, 217 from Staunton, 60 from Rockingham County, 44 from Harrisonburg — so 897, or 44.1%, from nearby places in the Shenandoah Valley. Another 35.9% came from elsewhere in Virginia, while 20% came from out of state.
That percentage of out-of-staters moving into Waynesboro has been pretty consistent for the past two decades. The stereotype might be that these are people moving in from the Northeast, but that’s not so. The single biggest source of out-of-staters moving into Waynesboro is the South, accounting for more than half of the new arrivals. However, Waynesboro also loses a lot of people to the South, so those population trades are about even. While the numbers coming from the Northeast are relatively small, Waynesboro consistently imports more people from the Northeast than it exports there.
Waynesboro is increasingly drawing new residents from the Charlottesville area
The single biggest source of new residents for any locality is almost always those localities next door — small-scale moves.
What’s notable about Waynesboro is the growing number of new residents who are moving in from across the Blue Ridge — specifically Albemarle County, Charlottesville and Nelson County.
In 2022, Waynesboro saw 336 new residents from Albemarle/Charlottesville/Nelson — 16.5% of its total new residents.
Just 10 years before, it saw 198 new residents from there — 12.4% of the total new residents.
Demographers also look at population swaps: Waynesboro consistently draws more people from Albemarle/Charlottesville/Nelson than it loses to those communities. Mountains are often a barrier to movement, but that’s not the case here.
Waynesboro is becoming a commuter city
In 2002, more than one-third of Waynesboro workers had jobs in the city — 35.3%. That was the single biggest place of work for people in Waynesboro.
A decade later, that figure had fallen to 24.3%, although Waynesboro was still the top place of work for Waynesboro residents.
By 2022, the most recent figures available, only 19.5% of Waynesboro’s working residents work in the city, and it’s fallen to second place, behind Augusta County at 22.5%.
(I’m indebted to Harrison Lombard of the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia for supplying me with all these numbers.)
In raw numbers, in 2002, there were 3,062 people who both lived and worked in the city. Two decades later, that figure was down to 1,991 — even though the total number of people in Waynesboro in the workforce has gone up.
So where are they working now? Increasingly, Albemarle and Charlottesville.
In 2002, there were 823 people in Waynesboro who were driving to work in Albemarle or Charlottesville — 9.5% of Waynesboro’s workforce.
By 2022, there were 1,876 Waynesboro residents commuting across the Blue Ridge to Albemarle or Charlottesville — 18.4% of the city’s workforce.
Put another way, there are now almost as many people in Waynesboro working in Albemarle/Charlottesville as there are working in Waynesboro itself — and the former trend line is falling while the latter is rising. If present trends continue, at some point in the coming years, Albemarle and Charlottesville will become the main workplace for Waynesboro residents.
The types of jobs available in Waynesboro are changing
The city has lost two-thirds of its manufacturing jobs over the past two decades, Lombard says. That’s a steep decline, but we’ve seen manufacturing decline nationally. That’s a trend that has defied presidents of both parties. The loss of those jobs “has undoubtedly helped cause more of Waynesboro’s residents to commute further for work,” Lombard says. “The shift from a manufacturing based economy to an education/medicine based one has been a common pattern in many small metro areas in Virginia and the U.S.”
It’s also likely that the types of jobs that new residents are working would be different from what previous ones worked, even if those manufacturing jobs were still available. “With the region attracting more Charlottesville area workers and residents, there have been some noticeable shifts in its demographics,” Lombard says. “Over the last decade, the share of Waynesboro’s population that works in education or medicine rose from 22 to 26 percent, even as it fell in Albemarle and Charlottesville. The number of the city’s residents with a bachelor’s degree rose by over 11 percent between 2018 and 2023, faster than surrounding Augusta County and faster than in Charlottesville.”
Waynesboro, once thought of as a blue-collar city, is now becoming more of a white-collar one. Or maybe a no-collar. When we look at the figures for where people in Waynesboro now work, we see two unexpected entries in the top 10: Henrico County (162 people or 1.6% of the workforce) and Fairfax County (155 people or 1.5% of the workforce). While it’s possible that people in Waynesboro are driving two-plus hours a day to those places, it’s more likely that these are remote workers — who might be working right now in their pajamas. It’s possible, indeed likely, that there are other remote workers in Waynesboro whose official place of work is somewhere other than Henrico and Fairfax, so this figure is probably higher. Even with just these two localities, that means there may be more remote workers in Waynesboro than there are people living in Waynesboro and working in nearby Harrisonburg, and almost as many as those living in Waynesboro and working in Rockingham County.
What we don’t know is even more fascinating: Are these trailing spouses who moved to Waynesboro with someone who works nearby? Or are these primary income-earners who chose Waynesboro because they liked it? Either way, this is a telling sign of how Waynesboro is changing.
Waynesboro is growing more affluent
Waynesboro’s median household income — $56,438 in 2023 — remains lower than the state figure of $97,720, but Waynesboro’s number has been rising at a faster rate. According to the Federal Reserve, the state’s median household income has risen by 16.5% since 2010. Waynesboro’s is up 40.1% in that time, the Fed says. That’s actually a slower pace than the other cities in the central Shenandoah Valley. Staunton’s median household income is up 46.6% since 2010, while Harrisonburg’s is up 57.6%. The central Shenandoah Valley is seeing an economic boom.
Newcomers from Charlottesville and Albemarle County are driving a lot of that. According to the IRS, the people moving out of Waynesboro make more money than those moving in. The only exceptions are those moving in from Charlottesville, Albemarle County, the Northeast and the West — of which those first two categories are far bigger, with Albemarle expats the biggest of all. People moving from Waynesboro to Albemarle made an average of $49,700 a year in 2022, according to the IRS, while those moving in made an average of $60,041. There were also about three times as many of those move-ins as move-outs, so that’s a lot of extra dollars flowing into Waynesboro with each moving van.
Home prices are cheaper in Waynesboro
Here’s one thing that’s likely driving these commuting patterns to Charlottesville: It’s cheaper to live in Waynesboro than in Charlottesville, although the cost differential is closing.
“In 2000, the median home value in Charlottesville was a third higher than in Waynesboro; by 2023, Charlottesville’s home prices were close to 90 percent higher than in Waynesboro,” Lombard says. “A new detached home in the Charlottesville area starts above $550K, in Waynesboro they cost half as much. Still, home prices in Waynesboro have grown less affordable to many of the region’s residents; since 2020 the city’s home prices have risen by over 43 percent, a faster rate than in Albemarle or Charlottesville.”
Waynesboro is growing younger
While Virginia as a whole is growing older, Waynesboro is growing younger. Not by much, but its median age has slipped from 39.1 years to 39.0 over the past four years.
Statewide, the biggest population change has been among those 65 and up, as baby boomers age. In Waynesboro, though, the biggest population change has been among those 25-44. Nearly half the population growth from 2020 to 2024 has come in that age bracket, according to figures from Weldon Cooper. Also, Lombard says, “births have risen in the city since the pandemic, indicating that it is likely attracting a disproportionate number of young families.”
Overall, Virginia saw its under-25 population fall from 2020 to 2024; in Waynesboro, that segment of the population grew. In the first half of the decade, Waynesboro added 306 people under 25; that’s three times more than what Staunton did, just a few miles down the road. It’s more than Charlottesville and Albemarle County did combined. Staunton was up 102 in that age cohort, Charlottesville/Albemarle was up 252. Surrounding Augusta County saw its under-25 population drop by 827. Most places saw their under-25 population drop — but not Waynesboro. It stands out as a place that is attracting people, either through moves or births.
With these population changes come political changes
Voting patterns in the United States are increasingly tied to education, so as Waynesboro attracts a more highly educated population, it’s indirectly attracting a more Democratic one. The Democratic vote in Waynesboro has been creeping up for some time now. We see this most clearly in presidential results: In the 1990s and early 2000s, Democratic candidates typically took a vote share of about 35% or so in presidential elections in Waynesboro. Barack Obama in 2008 was the first Democrat to crack the 40% threshold since Lyndon Johnson in the landslide year of 1964. Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024 were both able to raise that to 46.3%, which set the stage for Spanberger to top 50% in a gubernatorial year.
Spanberger took 52.42% of the vote in Waynesboro; running mate Ghazala Hashmi took 51.18% in the lieutenant governor’s race. Waynesboro didn’t go completely blue; Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares narrowly won the city — but only because 348 people who voted for Spanberger and 216 people who voted for Hashmi withheld their votes from Democrat Jay Jones, presumably over his well-publicized text messages. Those voters came back later on the ballot to mark in the oval for Makayla Venable, the party’s House of Delegates candidate in that district. She wound up with almost exactly the same number of votes in Waynesboro as Hashmi did (Venable was just three votes off). Venable lost the district overall to Republican incumbent Ellen Campbell, who took 57.64% of the vote, but Venable became the first Democrat to carry Waynesboro in a House of Delegates race since the advent of single-member districts in 1983. Even then, no Democrat actually finished first in a House of Delegates race in Waynesboro since George Cochran in 1963, which takes us back to a prehistoric era in Virginia politics.
That’s how historic these election results are in Waynesboro.
Other cities in the Shenandoah Valley have realigned, as well
Waynesboro is late to the party — the Democratic Party, that is. Two nearby cities in the central Shenandoah Valley have realigned as well: Harrisonburg and Staunton. Both voted Democratic in a governor’s race 20 years ago, in 2005, flipped back Republican in 2009, but then returned to Democrats in 2013 and have been in that column ever since.
Harrisonburg, once a Republican stronghold, cast 72% of its votes for Spanberger. Part of that is the James Madison University influence — a state-high 10.4% of the votes cast in Harrisonburg were provisional ballots, presumably from students, and virtually all of those went to Spanberger. Even if those votes didn’t exist, though, Harrisonburg would still be overwhelmingly Democratic.
The city has realigned so thoroughly that the House of Delegates district it’s in almost went Democratic this fall. Republican incumbent Tony Wilt barely held on with 50.38% of the votes over Democratic challenger Andrew Payton.
Interestingly, one place in the central Shenandoah Valley that hasn’t realigned is the county that surrounds Waynesboro — Augusta. In 1985, the last time Waynesboro went Democratic, Augusta voted 57.8% Republican. This year, it voted 71.98% Republican — so it’s turning a deeper shade of red while Waynesboro is turning blue.
I’ll have more about Waynesboro, and other political news, in this week’s edition of West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter. You can sign up here: