Sunday’s high temperatures topped 70 degrees in several locations, but the first accumulating snow of the season is on the way for parts of Southwest Virginia come Monday, possibly the earliest in more than a decade for several locations.
Arctic air behind a cold front that moved through Sunday will turn on the upslope snow jets, as northwest wind blowing over the Appalachians lifts and condenses moisture originating mostly from the Great Lakes. This will lead to bands of snow crossing the mountains, weakening as they move eastward past the spine of the mountains near the Virginia-West Virginia border, a common occurrence behind almost every cold front in winter, but particularly noteworthy now being early November and the season’s first snowfall for many locations in western Virginia.
Most counties along and west of the Interstate 77 corridor in Southwest Virginia are under a winter weather advisory. Not every square inch of real estate in these counties will get the 2 inches of snow or greater generally seen as the low bar for an advisory, but periods of snow are expected at most locations intermittently through Monday into Monday night, with 1-2 inches for many and some higher elevations getting 2-4 inches.
Farther east, periods of snow showers and snow flurries may blow across the New River Valley to as far east as the Blue Ridge on Monday, with streaky minor accumulation possible. By Monday evening, with colder air settling in and a stronger piece of upper-level lift moving through, some brief snow showers or flurries could even reach into the Roanoke Valley or east of the Blue Ridge, but little or no accumulation is expected.
Monday will be a raw January-like day with 30s-40s highs over most of Southwest Virginia and 20s lows by Tuesday morning, some upper teens west of the Blue Ridge. This will be a quick shot of cold air, not an early winter starting, as highs warm back into the 60s by late in the week with lows rising above freezing again.
A Nov. 10 snow of even 1/10 of an inch would be the earliest snowfall capable of reaching a tick mark on a ruler in more than a decade at many locations in Southwest Virginia.
Burke’s Garden in Tazewell County averages Nov. 22 for its first snowfall of a 0.1 inch or more in about 80 years of consistent snowfall records, but hasn’t had 0.1 inch of snow or more earlier than Nov. 10 since getting 2.4 inches on Nov. 1, 2014. That was also the last time Clintwood in Dickenson County got a tenth of an inch snow or more earlier than Nov. 10, with 0.7 inch on Nov. 1, 2014. These locations appear likely to see measurable snowfall on Monday.
Abingdon last had at least a tenth of an inch of snow on Nov. 10 in 1996 and before Nov. 10 on Oct. 31, 1993. Wytheville’s last snow of a tenth of an inch or more before Nov. 10 was also Oct. 31, 1993 Updated: Blacksburg’s last accumulating snow of at least 0.1 inch before Nov. 10 was when 0.5 inch fell on Oct. 30, 2012. Before that, the last accumulating snow before Nov. 10 was Nov. 3, 1999, as previously reported, but incorrectly as the most recent one. These locations are marginal for getting measurable snow on Monday.
The early taste of snowfall is also a reminder of the coming Cardinal Weather snowfall prediction contest that begins taking entries Wednesday. Snowfall in November does not count toward the season totals that entrants will attempt to guess in that contest.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter: