Virginia Democrats could gerrymander the state’s congressional lines enough that they could pick up at least three extra seats and possibly four seats in next year’s midterm elections, according to some possible maps already being circulated.
As soon as it became clear that Democrats were going to call a snap special session of the General Assembly this week to set in motion a rare mid-decade redistricting, political junkies fired up their mapping programs and set to work to see how many new seats Democrats could squeeze out.
Some may have been doing this already. Rep. Morgan Griffith, R-Salem, shared two maps with Cardinal. He said both are circulating among Republicans on Capitol Hill who apparently obtained them from a loose-lipped Democratic consultant. One shows a plan that could reduce Virginia’s five Republican-held seats to two; another version showed a way to reduce the Republican representation to just one.
Whether those are “real” plans or not hardly matters at this point. Taken together with the maps that others have drawn, we can easily see what’s possible if Virginia’s congressional lines are redrawn with a partisan motive in mind.
In a column posted Friday, I looked at the procedural and legal challenges that Democrats will face in drawing new lines in Virginia — it will require a constitutional amendment, which requires multiple steps, the first step of which must happen this week to meet the state’s deadlines for such changes. Even then, Republicans have already raised legal questions about whether it’s already too late to do all this in time for the 2026 elections. See my previous column for those details about why Republicans contend the legal window has already closed.
Today I’ll look at possible maps and some of the political consequences they’d trigger. First, though, let’s look at our current map and the considerations that went into drawing it.
Here’s the gerrymandered map we had before our current one
This the map we had from 2013 through the 2020 elections. I won’t detail all the political considerations that went into drawing this map, but I will call your attention to the 5th District, in bright green, which stretched all the way from the state’s southern border along the North Carolina line to almost its northern border. If you look closely, you may also see that the 2nd and 3rd Districts in Hampton Roads don’t appear to be contiguous. They actually are, legally speaking, because some locality borders are out in the water.
Our current map was drawn without partisan considerations
In 2020, Virginia voters approved a constitutional amendment to take the power of redistricting out of the hands of the majority party in the General Assembly and instead gave it to a newly created bipartisan commission. When that commission predictably deadlocked because an equal number of Democrats and Republicans couldn’t agree, the task fell to the Virginia Supreme Court — which appointed two “special masters,” one from each party. Together they drew the lines, which the court approved in December 2021.
These were the only redistricting maps in Virginia ever drawn without partisan considerations. They are also the most geographically logical district lines I’ve ever seen in the state. You can quibble about this line here or there but, broadly speaking, they are compact, coherent districts that ignore partisan considerations on the ground. The only weird part is how the 1st District hooks around Richmond to the west. However, once you get to the eastern part of the state and communities with large minority populations, you have to pay attention to whatever remains of the Voting Rights Act. The 1st borders Virginia’s two districts that have a majority minority population — the 3rd and the 4th — so that strange crook in the 1st feels to me like something that was left over and had to go somewhere because the option of tweaking the 3rd and 4th may not have been possible. In any case, this map may not be perfect but to my civic eye, it was a profound improvement over whatever gerrymandering would have created — but my criteria is geographical logic, not which party benefits.
In drawing this map, the two special masters — Bernard Grofman of the University of California-Irving and Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics — set out to respect city/county lines as much as possible and split them only when necessary. They also set out not to have district lines cross the Blue Ridge Mountains unless necessary. That’s why the 6th District is long and narrow. The mapmakers started drawing around Winchester and went south until they had picked up enough people. That’s why the Roanoke Valley is split between the 6th and 9th. Because there aren’t enough people in Southwest Virginia to fill up the 9th, the special masters then had to take the district east of the Blue Ridge. The 5th, once an elongated district, became almost a rectangle.
Another consideration the special masters tried to follow: You shouldn’t have to leave the district to get from one end to the other. There are some places around the Roanoke Valley where the borders of the 6th and 9th don’t work that way, but that was the goal.
None of those considerations come into play if you’re trying to draw lines to reach a certain political outcome. Often, they get in the way.
Here’s how Democrats could go from 6-5 to 9-2 in Virginia
Virginia’s current congressional delegation consists of six Democrats and five Republicans.
One of those Democratic seats — the 7th, held by Eugene Vindman — is competitive, so Republicans have a maximum potential of six seats. Maybe seven if there’s ever a red wave high enough to reach into the 10th District, held by Suhas Subramanyam.
One of those Republican seats — the 2nd, held by Jen Kiggans — is competitive, so Democrats could go to seven seats if an election went their way. Or maybe eight if they could knock off Rob Wittman in the 1st. That’s a district they’ve targeted. I wrote a recent column looking at why Democrats consider the 1st within reach but not the 5th.
Democrats, though, could draw lines to make it possible to pick up three seats to go to nine — and leave Republicans with just two seats. Here’s how.
This is of two maps that Griffith shared. It doesn’t include district numbers, so I’ll have to refer to them in other ways. This map also doesn’t show city and county lines, although in some places we can make things out. This map does create a pretty logically shaped (and Democratic) district around Richmond. To do that (and other things), look at the topmost Republican district. It stretches from Alleghany, Bath and Highland counties along the West Virginia border all the way to the Chesapeake Bay.
Beneath that a light blue district, signifying it’s Democratic-leaning. This map seeks to unite Democratic voting college communities from Radford and Blacksburg through Roanoke to Lexington to Charlottesville to … you see that tentacle stretching north? (The preferred redistricting term is “tendril.” That’s to be able to reach to Harrisonburg and pick up some more college town Democrats. Lynchburg is in this district, as well.
The other red district, akin to our current 9th District, stretches east to Appomattox County. It also takes in most of Pittsylvania County, but Danville — prized by Democratic mapmakers because it votes blue — is moved into a Democratic district to the east.
Some of these districts make sense to my eye, but that West Virginia-to-the-Chesapeake Bay district sure doesn’t. Now let’s look at the political implications of this map.
Who could be in, who could be out
The first thing to know is that members of Congress don’t need to live in the district they represent — just the state. There’s nothing to stop Southwest Virginia from electing a representative from Northern Virginia, although any NoVa candidate who tries that better have an NRA bumper sticker on his pickup truck and know the correct pronunciation of the town of Dante (it’s “daint.”). Morgan Griffith, who currently represents the 9th, doesn’t live there. He used to. When the district lines changed in 2021 to put his home in Salem in the 6th, he kept running — and winning — in the 9th.
This map would put Griffith’s home in Salem in that light blue Radford-to-Charlottesville-to-Harrisonburg district, but that probably doesn’t matter. He could keep right on running in the 9th. He’d just rack up some extra mileage to get to the eastern parts in what I’ll call an Appalachia-to-Appomattox district.
Politically, this would make no difference to him. He has an overwhelmingly Republican district now; he still would after this.
That college town district, as I’ll call it, is much more politically interesting. Ben Cline, the Republican congressman from the current 6th District, lives there — in Botetourt County, a few hills over from me. Most of his current constituents, though, would be in other districts, primarily that mountains-to-the-bay district. By my math, only about 37% or so of the voters Cline now represents would be in this new district. He’d have a legitimate claim to run in that mountains-to-the-bay district on the grounds that he’s simply following his constituents.
Who does live in that college town district? So far, four Democratic candidates have announced to run in the 5th District — three of those are from Albemarle County/Charlottesville, one from Lynchburg. They would all now be in this district. So would Roanoke author Beth Macy, who has been contemplating a plunge into politics. She’d been looking at running against Cline in a ruby red district; this would be a district much more conducive to her, or any other Democrat. If she ran, she’d enter a crowded primary field but have higher name ID than all the other candidates combined. Of course, some other candidates might also look at this reconfigured district and think it’s right for them, as well. Del. Sam Rasoul, D-Roanoke, would be in this district and he’s run for Congress before. The two candidates who have already announced for the Democratic nomination in the 6th District would wind up in that red mountains-to-the-bay district. Let’s move on.
Kiggans, the Virginia Beach Republican who represents the current 2nd District, would wind up in a light blue district under this plan. However, two other Republicans — Rob Wittman in the current 1st and John McGuire in the current 5th — would wind up in strongly Democratic districts. Wittman, from Westmoreland County, would be in the blue district that runs from the Northern Neck up into Northern Virginia. McGuire, from Goochland County, would be in the blue district around Richmond.
If you’re trying to keep score from home, consider this: Of Virginia’s current five Republican representatives, all five would be placed in Democratic-voting districts — Cline and Griffith in the college town district (although, as we’ve seen, Griffith doesn’t live in his current district), Kiggans, McGuire and Wittman in others. I’m sure some clever Democratic mapmaker is very proud of that, although whoever drew this one might be prouder:
Democrats could go from 6-5 to 10-1
Here’s another map that Griffith says Republicans have obtained. Again, whatever the provenance, it shows what’s possible, which is the real point of this exercise. If this is an actual Democratic map, it begins with a blatant insult — by giving a district anchored in Northern Virginia the historic number of the 9th District, once known as the “Fightin’ Ninth.”
The naming convention aside, the real import of this map is that it manages to draw just a single Republican district, which starts in Southwest Virginia and eats into Southside. The Republican bastions in the Shenandoah Valley are drawn into long district emanating out of Northern Virginia, which effectively “buries” those Republican voters in Democratic-dominated districts. Without county names, it’s hard to divine some of the geography, but what shows here as the 2nd District runs from what is probably Radford all the way to the Richmond suburbs. Bath and Highland counties along the West Virginia line are drawn into an 11th district that goes perhaps to Arlington. Martinsville and Danville are put into a 4th District that winds up east of Richmond. In all, five congressional districts grow like vines out of Northern Virginia and take in Republican communities downstate.
Right now, Virginia has three representatives from Northern Virginia — Don Beyer in the 8th, Suhas Subramanyam in the 10th, James Walkinshaw in the 11th. Depending on where candidates came from, this map could produce five representatives from Northern Virginia. It would also have the same representative in that new 9th District speaking for both Data Center Alley in Loudoun County and the Turkey Capital of the World in Rockingham County.
If the goal is simply to create as many Democratic districts as possible, this would seem to be the one Democrats would want, no matter how awkward the mapping might be.
Who could be in; who could be out
Like the map that leaves Republicans with just two seats, this would put all five sitting Republicans into Democratic districts, with Cline and Griffith in the 2nd, McGuire in the 3rd, Wittman in the 6th and Kiggans (depending on where she lives in Virginia Beach) in the 5th.
Griffith would stick with the Southwest district, however it’s numbered. All the others would appear to be out of luck. Macy and the three already announced Democratic candidates from Albemarle/Charlottesville area would be together in the 2nd District while the announced Democratic candidate from Lynchburg would be in the 3rd.
Now let’s look at some other maps.
Other ways to get to the same results
I’ve seen at least three other maps floating around — drawn by journalists, mapping hobbyists or who knows who — that all get to the same result (just two Republican seats) via different routes.
Here’s one that Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate posted, which draws tendrils to unite the Democratic voting Radford, Blacksburg, Roanoke, Staunton and Harrisonburg with Charlottesville, as well as parts of Lynchburg, Farmville and some piece of Northern Virginia. We once had a 5th District that stretched from the southern border to almost the northern border; this eliminates the “almost” and bisects the state northo-to-south. Martinsville would get drawn into a district with Virginia Beach and Richmond.
In case the lines there hard to read, here’s another version, just color-coded to political leanings:
Former Del. Tim Anderson, R-Virginia Beach, who is challenging Democratic incumbent Michael Feggans in the current election, posted this map below on social media, which he said he got from Zachary Donnini of Decision Desk HQ. It would put Roanoke in the traditional District, which would be renumbered. The the current 6th District would be stretched from the state’s northern border to the southern one and renumbered the 2nd. Danville would be part of that reconstituted 4th District:
Here’s one that Joseph Szymanski of Election Daily posted:
Here’s one from an account called “The Louisiana Democrat,” which manages to draw a district that runs from Loudoun County to Lee County and a 10th Ditrict that appears so pinched it places I imagine a single country road connecting the parts (assuming there’s even a road there):
And here’s one from someone named “Thomas Brown” that appears to have a district stretching from Radford to Frederickburg and another from Carroll County to the Richmond suburbs:
All these have the same thing in common: Southwest Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley, both Republican bastions, stay in Republican districts for the most part because if you’re making other places more Democratic, you need a place to “pack” Republican voters you don’t want. Some of these maps are more bizarre than others and show just how well computer programs can slice through election data and achieve desired outcomes. If Republicans were trying the same thing, their maps would be equally odd-looking.
Who wins? Who loses?
Obviously the goal here is for Democrats to win, but what about other considerations? How much do communities gain or lose from some of these maps? Do Democratic-voting Blacksburg and Charlottesville lose now because they’re both in Republican districts — and win if they’re drawn together in a more Democratic-leaning district, no matter how oddly shaped? Does Republican-voting Frederick County lose if it’s placed into a district with Democratic-voting Northern Virginia as some of these maps propose?
Here’s one thing to think about: In their final report to the Virginia Supreme Court in 2021, special masters Grofman and Trende wrote: “We agreed beforehand that we would work, if necessary, to ensure that the median district in the state roughly reflected the statewide performance of the parties. We also recognized that while Democrats in recent years have been winning a majority of the statewide vote, as shown in 2021 it is still possible for Republicans to win in the Commonwealth. Thus, a balanced map should give each party a realistic chance to control the congressional delegation … when that party has a good year, even if the overall partisanship of the Commonwealth makes it substantially easier for Democrats to do so in most years.”
The current delegation of six Democrats and five Republicans reflects that. Percentage-wise, that’s 54.5% Democratic, 45.5% Republican. That’s almost right in line with the 2020 presidential election in Virginia, which went 54.1% for Joe Biden, 44.0% for Donald Trump. Last year saw results tighten: 51.8% for Kamala Harris, 46.1% for Trump.
The 9-2 map that Democrats appear to be aiming for, and which is certainly possible cartographically speaking, would be 81.8% Democratic and 18.2% Republican. That 10-1 map, which is also possible if Democrats are brazen enough, would be 90.9% Democratic and 9.1% Republican.
In effect, these maps would disenfranchise most Republican voters in Virginia. Democrats might say “tough luck,” we need to do something to stop Trump’s power grab and save the republic. In effect, Democrats are telling Virginia: Make gerrymandering great again.
For more on this year’s election
All six statewide candidates, along with many House candidates and local candidates, have answered our issues questionnaire. See their responses on our Voter Guide.
For more political news and insights, sign up for West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter that goes out on Friday afternoon.