We have reached the portion of the annual cycle of seasons when pumpkins are getting frosted and there starts to be at least a hint of some flakiness.
The mention of “snow” in a headline for today’s Cardinal Weather column may seem a bit gratuitous. It is a numerically proven fact that no other topic engenders more pageviews than this particular four-letter “s” word. We could divert here into a deep sociological discussion of why that’s the case, why tornadoes and heat waves can’t seem to compete with fragile ice crystals for regional weather interest.
But it’s not entirely an empty mention, as there was a little bit of snow at least near our region earlier this week, and there may well be some more next week.
On Sunday night into early Monday morning, the first snowflakes of the season were observed in the highest elevations of West Virginia and North Carolina.
I am not aware of a report of snow from Virginia, but knowing it was happening on the highest ridgetops of our neighbors, it is probable that there were a few icy bits in the air at some point that night in the mile-high-plus elevations around Grayson Highlands/Mount Rogers/Whitetop Mountain, or perhaps along the highest ridges near the Virginia-West Virginia border.
We’ll get back to next week. Halloween might turn blustery.
Frosty mornings
A different form of ice crystals — those that condense on exposed objects on calm, clear nights when the temperature drops to very near the dew point — have been seen more widely in Southwest and Southside Virginia this week, though not yet areawide.
Some locations saw frost, and a pretty heavy one in some places, on Monday morning as temperatures dropped into the 30s to near 40 across the region. An official weather sensor near Pearisburg in Giles County actually dipped to 29 on Monday morning, with Burke’s Garden at 30, Wytheville at 31, and Brookneal at 32.
This followed some spotty cold mornings late last week as well, with Burke’s Garden dipping all the way to 24.
A cold front that kicked up a few showers Tuesday night has been followed by a reinforcing mass of chilly, dry air. High temperatures mostly in the 60s and lows mostly in the 30s and 40s will settle in for the rest of this week.
By Friday and Saturday mornings, when the wind dies down, we may see temperatures over our entire region ranging from the upper 20s to the mid 30s, and a much more widespread frost. With our patchwork of ridges and valleys, forests and open areas, and urban and rural areas, it’s difficult to have a truly areawide frost, and this may not be the season-ending “killing” freeze. But there will be some Halloween pumpkins with a crusty white coating.
Storm system next week … maybe wintry?
After some more potentially frosty mornings over the weekend into early next week, there is a strong possibility during the early to middle part of next week that a deep southward dip in the jet stream, trapped by high pressure to the west and north, will plop down a dollop of cold air from the northern latitudes and spin up a vigorous and perhaps quite moist storm system.
If this comes to fruition, it could be a major help with regional dryness, possibly the first widespread soaking rain we have seen in at least a month, depending on how you want to define “widespread” and “soaking.”
If this were December to February, or maybe even late November, there would be considerable interest in this atmospheric setup regarding winter storm potential in or near our region. Late October is usually a bit early to be considering this, though both 2011 and 2012 brought significant snow to parts of the Appalachians in late October.
And there actually is at least something of a reasonable chance that enough cold air could get trapped east of the mountains that there would be a slushy mix or wet snow element to the precipitation for a while next week, especially in higher elevations, depending on how the storm evolves and tracks.
In any event, some snow showers blowing over the mountains in cold, northwest winds once the storm passes look to be a strong possibility around the middle to latter part of next week.
Whether we see some seasonally premature snow or not, you might do well to consider how to dress the kids for what may be a blustery Halloween.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter:
