New VCU poll gives Spanberger a lead of 12 percentage points. Here’s what to know about that.

This has not been a good month for Virginia Republicans.

Last week CNBC released its annual rankings of best states for business, in which Virginia dropped from first to fourth. This wouldn’t be a big deal except that Republicans have spent the past year bragging about how their policies helped return Virginia to the top spot; now CNBC says it’s Republican policies — or, more specifically, the policies of one particular Republican, Donald Trump — that have cost the state its No. 1 position.

The main reason that Virginia dropped is that CNBC now factors in dependence on the federal workforce. What was once an asset for Virginia has become a liability now that Trump is downsizing the federal government. (See my previous column that details how the CNBC rankings work). A new round of unemployment figures shows unemployment now inching up in Northern Virginia: “Number of unemployed Fairfax residents reaches a level not seen since mid-2021,” reports FFXnow. “Arlington unemployment rate reaches highest point since the pandemic,” reports ARLnow. “Virginia unemployment rate hits longest rise since ’08 crisis,” Axios headlines.

The actual figures are relatively small: Unemployment in Fairfax County is 3.3%, which is still below the state average of 3.4%, and definitely lower than the 5.7% in Buchanan County or the 6.3% in Emporia, the state’s highest. The endemically high rates in parts of Southwest and Southside don’t spark a political crisis, but Northern Virginia is the state’s economic engine, so when that starts to flutter, we all should pay attention. Northern Virginia is also the source of the largest number of Democratic votes in Virginia, and Democratic politicians have not been adverse to using these trends to sound alarms that they hope will crank up voter turnout. On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell, D-Fairfax County, and Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Jeff McKay released a statement on the county’s “unemployment crisis,” as they billed it: “With over 21,700 residents now unemployed — a shocking 35% increase from last year — it is clear that the reckless policies of Donald Trump and the complicity of statewide Republican leadership are directly responsible for this crisis. This threatens the decades of leadership that has made Fairfax County the economic engine of Virginia.”

It might be easy to dismiss all that as simply overrated Democratic talking points — except that they are now Democratic talking points, and there’s often nothing better than a talking point that relies on some outside source (in this case, CNBC, or unemployment statistics). It’s harder for Republicans to ignore the more objectively bad news in the campaign finance reports that were filed late Tuesday night, which show Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger amassing more than three times as much campaign cash as Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, a financial trend replicated at varying levels in many other campaigns across the state.

Then, Wednesday morning, things appeared to get worse: Virginia Commonwealth University released a poll — the first since the June 17 primary — that showed Democrats leading all three statewide races, with Spanberger’s lead stretching out to 12 percentage points.

Before anyone pronounces this race over, let’s pause and take a closer look at this poll.

First, the happy numbers for Democrats and the painful ones for Republicans:

Governor:

Abigail Spanberger (D) 49%, Winsome Earle-Sears (R) 37%

Lieutenant governor:

Ghazala Hashmi (D) 46%, John Reid (R) 36%

Attorney general:

Jay Jones (D) 47%, Jason Miyares (R) 38%

Here’s the most important thing to know: This is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters. We know that not everyone will vote. Four years ago, 54.9% of registered voters cast ballots in the governor’s race, and that was the highest figure since the “motor voter” law expanded the number of people on the voting rolls. Obviously that raises the question of who will vote — and whether those who bother to do so will look like voters overall. More on that to come.

Broadly speaking, the VCU poll is not that different from a Roanoke College poll in May that showed Spanberger up by an astounding 17 percentage points — 43% to 26%. That was also a survey of registered voters. A poll about the same time taken by both a Democratic pollster and a Republican pollster for the pro-business group Virginia FREE limited its sample only to likely voters and found that Spanberger led by just 4 percentage points there.

There’s not a right way and a wrong way here. Some pollsters are skeptical that you can identify likely voters this far out — some years certain types of voters get excited, some years they don’t.

That’s why I would avoid jumping to the conclusion that Democrats really do have these huge leads. I don’t doubt that this is what the polls show — the political lay of the land this year certainly seems to benefit them. However, we don’t know yet who will actually bother to vote, and that will make all the difference. That’s what campaigns are all about, motivating potential supporters to take time to do something that many people consider a bother — to vote.

Here’s another reason to be skeptical that Spanberger’s big leads among registered voters, in both the VCU poll and the Roanoke College poll, foretells a November blowout of the same size. No Democrat in the modern era of Virginia politics has won by margins this big. The last time a Democrat was elected governor of Virginia by a double-digit margin was 40 years ago, when Gerald Baliles won by a margin of 10.4 percentage points. Before that, we have to go back to 1961, when the state’s political landscape was very different, to get a double-digit Democratic victory. We’ve had some Republicans win by double digits, but in what I’d consider the modern era (starting in 1969), Baliles stands alone among Democrats. Maybe this year will be the exception; maybe Spanberger can turn these big leads among registered voters into a similarly big lead among actual voters, but inclination is to be cautious about such things.

I do think we can take these numbers and draw some conclusions from them, not about who’s going to win but about why the campaigns are unfolding the way they are:

We may have no debates

This is probably why Spanberger didn’t agree to the traditional July debate before the Virginia Bar Association — and has yet to accept a joint invitation from the Appalachian School of Law, Cardinal News and PBS Appalachia to hold a fall debate in Bristol. If you think the political environment is this favorable, why risk doing a debate?

Earle-Sears isn’t taking serious questions

This makes Earle-Sears’ campaign strategy all the more baffling. She didn’t agree to the bar association debate, either, nor has she accepted our invitation. If you’re the underdog, you always want to debate — the more the merrier. Earle-Sears has also made a point of avoiding settings where she might face serious questions. As I wrote in a column last week, Virginia FREE — a group run by a former Republican legislator — had been trying to get a meeting with her for three months without success. I made more than a dozen requests for an interview to talk about energy and economic development, two topics that ought to be easy for any gubernatorial candidate, but especially a Republican one. I’ve interviewed Spanberger twice on those subjects, but have yet to net an interview with Earle-Sears. I may not be so special but Virginia FREE is; this is a “who’s who” of Virginia business leaders who the next governor will need to work with in one way or another. Nothing much gets done in Virginia without the support of the business community; spurning Virginia FREE isn’t just inexcusable, it’s political malpractice, especially for a Republican.

After my column ran, Earle-Sears’ campaign contacted both Virginia FREE and me to offer interviews, although none have yet been scheduled. For reasons that many Republicans don’t understand, Earle-Sears is acting as if she’s the one ahead and is trying to run out the clock, rather than a candidate who needs to make up lost ground and make it up fast.

Republican support is consistent for the whole ticket

The numbers for the Republican candidates are all very similar, which suggests two things. First, there doesn’t appear to be any dropoff for Reid, the first openly gay candidate nominated by statewide office in Virginia. I continue to hear that some evangelicals aren’t happy about Republicans nominating Reid, but those anecdotal rumblings aren’t reflected in the actual poll numbers. Second, the numbers suggest we won’t see much ticket-splitting. It’s been 20 years since we’ve had a statewide election that resulted in a split decision — 2005 gave us a Democratic governor (Tim Kaine), a Republican lieutenant governor (Bill Bolling) and a Republican attorney general (Bob McDonnell). If that trend holds, that could be a worry for Republicans if they conclude the governorship is out of reach but want to avoid a Democratic sweep.

Before Republicans discount this poll (and I realize it’s always easy to discount ones you don’t like), I’ll point out that it generally matches lots of other polls we’ve seen in the state:

Virginians like Youngkin

Youngkin is popular: 49% approve of his handing of the job, 39% don’t. While his numbers jiggle up and down, we have yet to see a poll where he was getting bad marks. Youngkin’s relative popularity ought to be an asset for Republicans.

They don’t like Trump

The challenge for Republicans is that Virginians’ approval of Younkin is outshone by their disapproval of Trump. This poll finds that 56% of registered voters disapprove of his handling of the job, and those tend to disapprove very strongly: 50% “strongly disapprove” while 6% “somewhat disapprove.”

Independents don’t like Trump

The love for Youngkin is mild; the hatred of Trump is intense. Is it possible for Republicans to separate themselves from Trump? That’s hard. The problem for Republicans is that even if you filter out Democrats, independents really don’t like Trump, either: 49.5% of independents “strongly disapprove” of Trump, another 16.8% “somewhat disapprove,” so Trump’s disapproval rate among independents in Virginia is 66.3%. No wonder Democrats have spent so much time talking about Trump: He provokes strong feelings from the voters that Democrats need most.

Independents are up for grabs in governor’s race

Independents are split on who should be governor. Under the circumstances, this is probably good news for Republicans. Among independents, 24.9% back Spanberger, 24.0% back Earle-Sears while 47.4% are undecided. Again, this is a reason for Democrats to talk more about Trump — if independents aren’t persuaded by Spanberger, maybe they will be persuaded by Trump.

The issues this year may benefit Democrats with one big caveat

Those surveyed were asked: “What is the most important issue impacting your vote.” The issue most often cited, by 29%, was “rising cost of living.” A year ago, that would have benefited Republicans; now it works against them, although Republicans can make it work for them if they can blame rising energy costs on Democratic policies. That’s why I’m so surprised Earle-Sears hasn’t made herself available yet for an interview on energy policy. There are certainly tough questions for all parties here but I’d suspect any Republican answer would begin with a critique of the Democratic-backed Clean Economy Act that mandates a carbon-free power grid by 2050.

The second most cited issue was a tie — both “women’s reproductive rights” and “immigration” were listed by 14%. We don’t know on which side of the issue those people stand, but given the way the former is worded, I’m guessing that’s an issue that benefits Democrats. Immigration could go either way.

I said earlier that the most important thing to know about this poll is that it’s a poll of registered voters, not likely voters. The second most important thing to know about it is that it’s July. Voting starts a lot earlier than it used to — the first day of voting is now Sept. 19. Still, it’s midsummer. The political ground appears to be quite favorable for Democrats but for many Virginians, the ground that they’re most concerned about right now is the sand on the beach. 

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