In the 2023 House of Delegates elections, Democrats plainly missed an opportunity to pick up a seat. They didn’t give as much money to Lily Franklin as they did other Democratic candidates in competitive races across the state — yet she came within 183 votes of winning anyway in the district that covers parts of Montgomery and Roanoke counties.
After the election, Franklin wrote on the pro-Democratic Blue Virginia website: “The hardest part of this campaign was continually being turned down by organizations that endorsed me because they simply don’t understand or care about Southwest Virginia.”
Democrats do not appear to be making that same mistake this year. Franklin is looking at a rematch against Del. Chris Obenshain, R-Montgomery County — and the campaign finance reports that came out this week show that Franklin has raised more money in the first quarter than any other House candidate in the state, with the exception of House Speaker Don Scott. She picked up $190,388, behind only the speaker’s $813,254.
Furthermore, she’s got nearly four times as much cash on hand as Obenshain: $184,799 to $47,996. That comparison, though, may be somewhat misleading — or, at least, temporary. House members are barred from raising money while the General Assembly is in session, so Obenshain spent most of the first quarter of the year in a “blackout” period as far as fundraising was concerned. That puts a big asterisk beside any comparison of the two candidates’ fundraising. Still, Franklin’s haul is still bigger than all but one other candidate in the state, incumbent or challenger, which signals that Democrats appear to be making a major challenge to win a rare seat for the party west of the Blue Ridge. At present, the only other Democratic legislator on this side of the state is Del. Sam Rasoul of Roanoke.
More on the Franklin-Obenshain race below, but first some other takeaways from the first quarter campaign finance reports. First, though, my usual note of caution: Despite what the great philosopher Randy Newman once said — “It’s Money That Matters” — money does not always equate to victory. What matters is whether candidates have enough money to get their message out and whether that message is one that voters want to hear at any given time. Nonetheless, I haven’t met a candidate yet who wanted to have less money than the other side.
Governor: Spanberger has a big fundraising advantage over Earle-Sears
We knew this already because both gubernatorial campaigns released their figures a week ago but it’s still noteworthy: Democrat Abigail Spanberger has a lot more money than Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.
In the first quarter of the year, Spanberger raised more than twice as much as Earle-Sears — $6.7 million to $3.1 million. As lieutenant governor, Earle-Sears has been in the same blackout period on fundraising as legislators, so I’m prepared to overlook this as an aberration except for one thing. Earle-Sears has had four years to gear up a gubernatorial campaign; Spanberger announced back in 2023 that she was running for governor. The point: Both have had a long time to raise money, and Spanberger’s doing a lot better. I’m often more impressed by cash on hand than actual fundraising because you never know how much campaign spending gets wasted — but cash on hand shows what kind of monetary reserves a campaign has for whatever lies ahead. What really catches my eye is that Spanberger had a 3-1 cash advantage before the quarter began. Earle-Sears made up for lost fundraising time after the session ended, but Spanberger still has nearly three times as much money on hand.
As of March 11, Spanberger had just over $11 million in the bank, Earle-Sears just over $4 million. That’s nothing that a single check from Elon Musk can’t erase, but we should keep an eye on whether this financial gap between the two candidates persists. If so, that will be worrisome for Republicans.
Lieutenant governor: Herrity and Stoney lead fundraising; Herrity and Rouse lead cash on hand
Both Democrats and Republicans will hold primaries June 17 to pick candidates for lieutenant governor (and some other offices), so let’s deal with these separately.
Republicans have a two-way race. I have yet to see a public poll, but when it comes to money, Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity is the clear leader over Richmond radio talk show host John Reid.
In the quarter, Herrity raised $540,273 — more than any other candidate on either side of the ledger in the lieutenant governor’s race and definitely more than the $178,110 that Reid raised. This came even though Herrity was sidelined part of the time after heart surgery. Herrity also leads Reid in the cash-on-hand category: $335,067 to $90,990.
Democrats have a six-way race and, when it comes to money, things are less clear-cut. Former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney raised the most, $428,082, with Virginia Beach state Sen. Aaron Rouse in second place at $399,319, just barely ahead of Prince William County School Board chair Babur Lateef at $398,269.
Rouse, though, has a lot more cash on hand — more than anybody else. He’s got $925,949 in the bank, followed by Richmond state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi with $655,869.
What’s all this mean? It probably means we’ve got a barnburner of a Democratic primary for lieutenant governor going on. For the full numbers, see the box.
The oddity in these reports is that John Curran, who failed to gather enough signatures to qualify for the Republican ballot, still has more than $1 million in the bank. Perhaps he should have spent more of that on petition collectors?
Attorney general: Jones leads Taylor, Miyares waits with more
Democrats will have a primary to pick a challenger against Republican incumbent Jason Miyares, who is seeking reelection.
Former Norfolk Del. Jay Jones leads Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor in both fundraising and cash on hand, with nearly a 2-1 advantage in the former and more than a 2-1 advantage in the latter.
Miyares, though, has more than either of his two aspiring challengers. He’s got $2.1 million in the bank and has no need to spend any of it in a primary. Jones has just under $1.5 million and Taylor has $666,324 but they will burn through that in a primary.
House of Delegates: Key Democratic challengers are well-funded
All 100 seats in the House of Delegates are up for election this year. When we look at first-quarter fundraising, we need to remember that incumbents were unable to raise money for most of that time, so it’s somewhat unfair to compare challengers versus incumbents. Still, one potentially important trend emerges: Democratic challengers who hope to topple Republican incumbents in swing districts have raised more than Republican challengers who hope to oust Democratic incumbents. Democrats currently hold a 51-49 edge in the House, so these reports suggest that Democrats are investing more in trying to expand their majority than Republicans are in trying to win it back.
Six challengers topped $100,000 in the first quarter, five of them Democrats:
Challenger Amount raised Incumbent District Geography Lily Franklin (D) $190,338 Chris Obenshain (R) HD 41 Parts of Montgomery and Roanoke counties John McAuliff (D) $170,820 Geary Higgins (R) HD 30 Parts of Loudoun and Fauquier counties Elizabeth Guzman (D) $149,043 Ian Lovejoy (R) HD 22 Part of Prince William County Jessica Anderson (D) $115,665 Amanda Batten (R ) HD 71 Williamsburg, parts of James City and New Kent counties Tim Anderson (R) $112,912 Michael Feggans (D) HD 97 Part of Virginia Beach Kimberly Pope Adams (D ) $103,042 Kim Taylor (R) HD 82 Petersburg, Surry County and parts of Dinwiddie and Prince George counties
Of those six $100,000-plus challengers, five are returning candidates. Only John McAuliff is new. Relative to her performance last time, Jessica Anderson was perhaps the most underfunded Democratic candidate last cycle. (I looked at all those numbers in a column after that election.) In three months, Anderson has already raised more than half of what she raised in all of the 2023 campaign — when, with just $214,298, she came within 667 votes of winning. It looks to me as if Democrats have learned their lessons and are investing in places where they didn’t last time, while Republicans are off to a slow start, money-wise, although the fundraising blackout period explains some of that.
Separate from the list above, five challengers — three Democrats, two Republicans — have more cash on hand than the incumbents they’re facing (or, in one case, hope to face). That seems more notable to me than the fundraising figures because those incumbents have had two years to build up a fat treasury, knowing they’d have blackout periods, but challengers have already erased that.
Franklin has the biggest advantage, noted above.
In that Petersburg-area seat, Adams has $119,534 in the bank to Taylor’s $61,038.
In the Hampton-Poquoson area, Democrat Virgil Gene Thornton Jr. has $34,049 in the bank compared to $31,081 for Republican incumbent A.C. Cordoza in House District 86.
The Republican challengers who have more cash in hand than the Democratic incumbent are both in Hampton Roads.
Former Del. Tim Anderson in House District 97 in Virginia Beach has $83,233 to Del. Michael Feggans’ $62,090. However, Anderson does face a primary challenger so he will have to spend some of that sooner than he might like.
Next door in House District 96, Republican Kyle Pasquarella has $5,436 to just $551 for Del. Kelly Fowler.
Republicans have lots of money elsewhere, though
These numbers don’t reflect other political money that’s sloshing around the system in various political action committees not affiliated with any particular candidate. In the first quarter, the one that raised the most money was Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC, which raised more than $1.9 million. In second place was the Republican Commonwealth Leadership PAC, which raised $556,639. Much of that money will eventually find its way to Republican candidates; it’s just a matter of which ones need it most. Still, to paraphrase an old adage: PAC money helps those who help themselves. Candidates first need to demonstrate their own fund-raising ability to show they’re serious.
House of Delegates: Most incumbents are well-funded
This isn’t a surprise. Incumbents are supposed to be better-funded. I’ll just point out how well-funded some of them are. These five have the most cash on hand:
- House Speaker Don Scott, D-Portsmouth: $2,456,655
- Del. Luke Torian, D-Prince William County: $716,527
- House Minority Leader Todd Gilbert, R-Shenandoah County: $583,163
- Del. Terry Austin, R-Botetourt County: $499,094
- House Majority Leader Charniele Herring, D-Alexandria: $494,214
All these are legislative leaders of some sort — Torian is chair of the budget-writing House Appropriations Committee; Austin is vice chair of House Transportation and a senior member of Appropriations. Most of these candidates will wind up using a lot of this money to help other candidates. Austin will have to deal with a primary first; he’s the only Republican incumbent to draw a challenger. For comparison’s sake, that challenger, Austin Schwend, has just $2,040 in the bank.
House of Delegates: Whittle’s self-funding boosts his totals
The Danville area has a rare double primary, with both Democrats and Republicans holding elections June 17 to pick candidates who want to succeed Del. Danny Marshall, R-Danville, who is retiring.
Both sides are financial mismatches. On the Democratic side, Gary Miller has raised $13,324 to $950 for Jasmine Lipscomb. On the Republican side, Madison Whittle has raised $100,425 to just $500 for Vanessa Scearce. Whittle’s six-figure number is boosted by $50,000 that he’s personally put into the campaign, plus another $10,319 from his city council campaign committee. As of March 31, he still had more than $65,000 in the bank, which is more than many incumbents, except those who are in leadership positions. Whittle does not appear to lack for funds. I wonder if this will change Democratic perceptions of their chances in that district. Miller has a big advantage now over his primary opponent but he runs far behind Whittle. If they wind up being the two candidates this fall, Miller will need a lot more money than he presently has if he wants to be competitive in that Republican-leaning district.
Boards of supervisors: Some potentially expensive primaries in Botetourt and Montgomery counties
The State Board of Elections this week released the official list of candidates who had made the primary ballot. In our coverage area, we have 10 primaries for board of supervisors seats, all on the Republican side. You can find the full list on our Voter Guide. Based on these fundraising numbers, the most expensive ones may be in Botetourt County and Montgomery County.
Jason Capelle of Orange County has raised more money than any other supervisor candidate in the state — $31,375 — but he doesn’t face a primary.
The second-biggest fundraiser among supervisor candidates is Montgomery County District D Supervisor Todd King, who faces a primary challenge from Dale Buckner. King has raised $22,700; Buckner’s way down the list at $211.
The fourth-biggest fundraiser is Dirk Padgett, who is seeking the Republican nomination for an open seat in the Amsterdam District of Botetourt County. So far, he’s raised $8,400; his opponent, Tim Snyder, has raised $1,200.
You can find all the numbers on the Virginia Public Access Project. And if all this talk of money makes you wonder who’s going to keep watch on all these candidates once some of them get elected, now’s a fine time to sign up as a Cardinal News member to help support independent journalism in Southwest and Southside Virginia.
On the road to Damascus
In this week’s editon of West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter, I’ll take a look at the political implications of the delays in federal relief for Hurricane Helene, as reported this week by Cardinal’s Elizabeth Beyer.
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