It’s a bit hard to believe after the flooding of February that we’re already talking about dryness again.
But one of the wettest Februarys on record across much of Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside Virginia coverage area has been followed by what is on pace to be one of the driest Marches on record.
Because of the wet February, we are not — yet, at least — back at the point of highly impactful long-term drought that would severely affect agriculture or dry up stream flows.
In our region, “abnormally dry” conditions only painted a few North Carolina border counties on the U.S. Drought Monitor as of last week — the new one issued Thursday based on data through Tuesday may show wider coverage. The northern third of Virginia ranges from abnormally dry to a small pocket of severe drought not far from D.C.
A couple more weeks of little or no rain would get us into more widespread, deeper drought just as the new growing season really gets going. We’ll see if a storm system Sunday and Monday can deliver meaningful rain to our region, along with, possibly, a risk of stronger thunderstorms. States west of us may again experience a severe storms outbreak.
We are already very much at the point where dry surface fuels and occasional windy cold fronts are ramping up the risk of wildfires. Brief periods of light showers like Monday’s or late Tuesday into early Wednesday — maybe even snow showers in higher elevations near the West Virginia line — don’t do a whole lot to quench the overall dryness.
For instance, Friday and Saturday brought successive large wildfires covering hundreds of acres in the mountains west of the Roanoke Valley, first in the Hanging Rock area just to the west and later on Brush Mountain farther west near the Craig County line. Neither fire affected any structures, thanks largely to the work of forestry and fire crews to contain the flames.
For much of March, the weather pattern has flipped from the western U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough pattern that brought our region its coldest winter in a decade and likely its iciest in over three decades, to its almost mirror opposite, with a diving jet stream trough in the West and a high pressure ridge over the East.
This has resulted in a series of strong low-pressure systems forming on the temperature gradient between cold to the west and warmth to the east, riding the jet stream flow northeastward. These lows have been tracking too far west and north to pull a heavy slug of moisture across our region, but they are proficient in dragging through cold fronts from the west, behind which winds whip up in the pressure gradient around the deep low-pressure systems.
The gusty post-frontal winds fan in extremely dry air (sometimes accompanied by dust lifted out of the arid terrain of the Southwest U.S.), which can quickly dry out surface fuels that are even moderately damp, let alone almost totally dry as they often have been.
Surface fuels include the annual carpet of fallen leaves and dried up near-ground vegetation left over from the fall. Also, much of our region’s forests are littered with fallen trees and limbs from the gusts of Hurricane Helene’s inland impacts in September and two winter ice storms. Every new windy cold front drops a few more limbs and trees, many loosened by the aforementioned prior inclement weather events.
With such gusty wind and dry fuel to work with, fires can spread quickly from a small spark to acres of burning brush within minutes.
We are not so tinderbox that forest fires which burn entire trees and jump treetop to treetop are likely, but fires which burn through brush and leaves along the ground underneath the trees and singe the trunks, or else burn through open fields, are quite easy to spread during periods of gusty winds and low humidity.
Wildfires are a regular occurrence in our region and can serve some beneficial purposes in the ecosystem, but structures near these fires, including homes, and even human life can be threatened, more so the stronger the winds fanning the fires.
Until we get a couple of soaking rains, it would be a good idea to avoid lighting outdoor fires in our region as much as possible.
March of drought after flooded February
Only eight-hundredths of an inch of rain fell on Lynchburg in early Monday showers, but that was just enough to ensure this wouldn’t be the driest March on record in the Hill City.
Lynchburg, through Monday with a week left in March, had measured just 0.43 inch of rain for the month. Were the month complete, that would be the second driest March on record in 133 years of data, wetter than only 0.36 inch in 1910. Just five other Marches besides those two have had less than an inch of rain, the most recent in 2006 with 0.76 inch.
The dry March has followed Lynchburg’s fifth wettest February on record with 5.92 inches.
Elsewhere, Blacksburg would also have had its second driest March on record had it ended Monday, with 0.90 inch, wetter than only 0.60 in 2006. Blacksburg, also like Lynchburg, had its fifth wettest February on 118 on record with 6.22 inches.
At Wytheville, the wettest February out of 101 on record, 6.25 inches, has turned into what would be the seventh driest March, were it over Monday, with 1.57 inches. Burke’s Garden’s third wettest February of 119 on record, with 8.10 inches, has been followed by a March with just 1.65 inches through Monday, which like Wytheville would be the seventh driest March were the month over.
Roanoke’s February was its third wettest of 114 on record with 6 inches on the button, but only 1.48 inches of rain had fallen in March through Monday, which would have been the 10th driest March were it over.
Differing from the regional trend somewhat is Danville, which wasn’t as wet in February and hasn’t been as dry in March as most of the rest of Southwest and Southside Virginia. Danville was a little south of the month’s flooding rain on Saturday, Feb. 15, totaling 3.90 for the month, or the 30th wettest February out of 104 on record. Similarly, being a little farther east has helped Danville get a bit more rain in March, with 2.36 inches through Monday, which would have been 25th driest were the month over.
The important phrase above is “were the month over.” The month didn’t end on Monday, but beyond the weak showers that may have added a little bit overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday, there isn’t any solid chance of rain until the last couple days of the month on Sunday and Monday.
The recent trend has been for rain and storms ahead of cold fronts to dry up quite a bit from earlier forecasts as the fronts approach. We’ll see if that continues Sunday and Monday, or whether enough rain can fall to lift March out of historic dryness while also providing a soaked soil for new spring growth and quelling fire danger.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter: