A winter storm with significant similarities to the early January storm that covered much of Virginia in a snow-sleet-ice shell is set to affect nearly the entire state on Tuesday.
Just like Jan. 5-6, snow is expected to spread across Virginia from the west and southwest, with snow changing to a mix of sleet, freezing rain and rain from the south and southwest during the day and evening. Temperatures are not quite as cold as they were in early January, so it may be a bit slushier to start, but many areas could see similar ice accumulations to the early January storm, and much of Northern Virginia may see similar heavy snowfall amounts.
Snow is expected to spread over much of Southwest Virginia in the pre-dawn hours, reaching the Blue Ridge by sunrise, and then northeastward over much of Central and Northern Virginia during the day. It will quickly change to sleet, freezing rain and rain in the southwest corner of the state and along the southern rim of counties though Southside into Hampton Roads, but just about everywhere else is expecting a prolonged period of wintry precipitation.
Precipitation is expected to remain mostly snow at least through most of Tuesday evening over the northern half of the state, with many locations getting over 4 inches and some possibly as much as 8-10 inches.
After an inch or two of snow, freezing rain is expected to become the predominant precipitation by afternoon near the I-77 corridor in Southwest Virginia, along the Blue Ridge south of Roanoke, and eastward across much of southern Virginia. Damaging ice accumulations of one-quarter to one-half inch may occur in some areas, leading to tree damage and power outages.
A stripe through the middle of the state from the New River Valley across the Roanoke Valley and Lynchburg east to Richmond — the U.S. 460 corridor — has the greatest uncertainty for storm outcome, as the intensity and extent of an early band of snow plus the speed of warmer air moving in aloft from the south and southwest are difficult to predict. Staying slightly colder aloft for longer with heavier precipitation in the morning, this zone could slip more toward the 4-6-inch side of snow accumulations, but an early move of sleet and ice northward plus a weaker early band could leave only an inch or two before changeover.
Either way, sleet and freezing rain are expected over most of the southern half of the state by late afternoon and evening, then encroaching northward into the snow area over the northern half of Virginia during the evening and overnight as well.
The amount of sleet between snow and freezing rain is another uncertain factor in forecasts both for snow and ice accumulation. Sleet, or ice pellets, continues to accumulate similar to a snow, and is in fact counted as snowfall, but at a much slower rate than regular snowflakes. But sleet does not accumulate on trees and power lines like freezing rain, water droplets that freeze on contact with sufficiently cold surface objects.
While there are many points at which Tuesday’s winter storm may divert from many forecasts, travel conditions are almost certain to worsen through the day over a wide section of the state, and scattered to numerous power outages are possible by evening where the greatest ice has accumulated.
Additional wintry precipitation, mostly freezing rain, is possible in some western and northern parts of Virginia late Wednesday and early Thursday, adding to any ice problems that develop with Tuesday’s storm, but the general trend of temperatures through the remainder of the week is warmer. This “glacier” will not last as long as January’s did.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter:
