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Scott County would seem to have absolutely nothing at stake in whatever immigration crackdown President-elect Donald Trump has planned.
The U.S. Census Bureau says that Scott saw absolutely no immigration, legal or otherwise, in 2023.
It was one of 10 localities that appear to have had no immigration that year, the others being Bland, Buckingham, Charles City, Craig, King and Queen, Mathews, Sussex and Wise counties, plus the cities of Franklin and Norton. Census estimates may not be absolutely exact, but the point is, Scott County is not exactly a magnet for immigrants.
However, it stands out in another way, which may at first seem completely unrelated but is actually quite related: Scott County is more dependent on state funding for its schools than any other locality in the state. According to the most recent superintendent’s annual report on file with the state Department of Education, 65.4% of Scott County’s education funding comes from the state.
It’s that figure that ties apparently immigrationless Scott County to the nation’s immigration policy — and, more specifically, to the high immigration levels on the other end of the state. That’s because the single biggest source of the state tax revenue that helps subsidize most of the funding for Scott County’s schools (and other rural schools) comes from Northern Virginia.
That’s why the economic fortunes of Northern Virginia matter so much to the rest of the state. The late Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau (father of the current PM, Justin) once said that living next to the United States was like sleeping with an elephant. “No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast,” he said, “one is affected by every twitch and grunt.” The same principle applies here: Northern Virginia is doing a lot of twitching lately, and that should concern every locality that depends on its economic health to generate the revenues that get cycled through Richmond and spent in the rest of the state (sometimes to the chagrin of those in Northern Virginia who think their relationship with Richmond is a money-losing proposition).
Multiple census reports have shown that more people are moving out of Northern Virginia than moving in. A relatively young population, where births outnumber deaths and out-migration, has kept some localities growing, but now we’re seeing Fairfax County losing population outright. If that trend were to continue for the rest of the decade, Fairfax County would post its first population loss in a census since the 1830 census measured a population decline in the 1820s.
Now comes Old Dominion University’s annual State of the Commonwealth Report with more warnings about the Northern Virginia economy.
I dealt with some of the figures in that report in a previous column: “New River economy is hot; Northern Virginia is not.” Namely, over the past five years, Northern Virginia has seen the state’s slowest growth in taxable sales, which the report’s authors consider a better measure of economic performance than gross domestic product. Furthermore, since the pandemic, the civilian labor force in Northern Virginia has shrunk (at a faster rate than the Kingsport-Bristol metro in Southwest Virginia). Over the same time period, overall job growth in the region has barely changed. Northern Virginia has also posted the slowest income growth in the state since 2018. (Although, since Northern Virginia starts at a high base, income-wise, a slow percentage change may not be as significant as it would be elsewhere. Still, it’s the slowest in the state.)
The report had two other warnings, though, both of which relate to policies that are near and dear to Trump’s heart but could depress the Northern Virginia economy and, ultimately, hurt the rural localities that voted mostly enthusiastically for him.
The first concerns his desire to reduce, and disperse, the federal workforce. “For Virginia, attempts to reduce or relocate the federal workforce are likely to have significant negative consequences of employment, incomes, and real GDP growth if these efforts occur in a short period of time,” the ODU report warns. That’s not politics, just math. “Average federal employee compensation is higher than private sector employee compensation,” the report says. “If thousands of federal employees faced elimination of their positions, there would not be a corresponding number of open private-sector positions offering similar compensation. Moving these jobs out-of-state would have a similar impact: a reduction in Virginia’s GDP, concentrated in Northern Virginia.”
The second deals with immigration. “Removing those convicted of crimes and existing removal orders will, if it occurs in an orderly manner, likely have little significant impact on economic activity,” the ODU report says. “A broader targeting of immigrant communities, on the other hand, could disrupt construction, agriculture, and other industries.” After all, a disproportionate number of workers in those fields are immigrants, and not all may have legal status. As I’ve written before, there’s been insufficient attention given to the economic consequences of a large-scale deportation program.
The ODU report doesn’t say this explicitly in words, but some accompanying charts speak the message clearly in a visual format: Virginia’s two biggest metro areas — Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads — are both reliant on immigration to prevent population loss.
From July 1, 2020, to June 30, 2023, the population of Hampton Roads grew by 5,457 — but that was only because of an influx of 8,447 immigrants. Without those immigrants, Hampton Roads would have lost population.
During that same period, the population of Northern Virginia grew by 44,664 — but that was only because of the arrival of 109,336 immigrants. Without those immigrants, Northern Virginia would have shrunk by 64,672 people — the equivalent of Page County and Shenandoah County being blipped out of existence.
Here’s how to think of this: Our two biggest metro areas are now entirely dependent on immigration to drive their population growth. While it’s fair to argue about how much population growth is too much, population loss is almost always synonymous with economic decline — and without immigration, both Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads would be losing population.
It’s not just the two biggest metros, either. Virginia overall has seen its population grow by 78,505 since 2020 — but that’s entirely due to immigration. Virginia has recently reversed its out-migration trends — more people are now moving into the state than out. That’s a welcome change. Nevertheless, without immigration, Virginia would be losing population by a very modest amount — 1,352 people, or about the size of the Wise County town of Appalachia — but it would definitely be on the minus side. Keep in mind that these numbers reflect rising immigration numbers under the Biden administration. What happens if those numbers slow down? Nobody should expect that current trend to continue, particularly with Trump coming into office. Our next governor may have to grapple with something no Virginia governor has faced since Thomas Mann Randolph Jr., James Pleasants, John Tyler and William Branch Giles presided over the state in the 1820s: a shrinking population.
You may recall a recent column in which I looked at the latest census reports, which showed that, without immigration, 18 states would have lost population. Virginia wasn’t among those. What’s the difference? That Census Bureau report looked only at the past year. ODU has compiled figures for the past three years to get a more comprehensive look. Over the past year, Virginia would have still gained population, slightly, without immigration. Over the past three years, though, immigration has kept Virginia out of the population-losing column.
The census doesn’t distinguish between types of immigrants — who’s here legally and who’s not — but Trump has made it clear he’s not keen on a lot of immigration, even of the legal kind. This is a policy position with economic consequences.
Voters in rural Virginia may not have intended this, but they may have just voted in favor of population decline in the state’s two biggest metros. Or, put another way, they may have voted to slow down, or even reverse, economic growth in the state’s two main economic engines.
Lots of politics coming this week
On Tuesday, Virginia holds special elections in three General Assembly districts to fill vacancies. On Wednesday, the legislature convenes for this year’s session. Cardinal’s Richmond-based reporter Elizabeth Beyer will be on hand for the action. That’s a good reason to sign up for our daily newsletter, if you’re not already subscribed. I also write a weekly political newsletter, West of the Capital, that goes out on Friday afternoons. You can sign up for any of all of those (and others!) here: