Update 8:56 a.m.
Patches of rain, freezing rain, and sleet are moving across Southwest and Southside Virginia on this Sunday morning, with possibly some snow developing near and north of Interstate 64. A winter weather advisory is in effect, having been expanded to include a row of counties along and just east of the Blue Ridge overnight.
While most road surfaces are retaining previous days’ warmth and staying mostly wet, patchy ice or slush may develop on bridges, overpasses, and spotty places on other roadways, such as shaded areas of rural roadways. Caution is advised in travel this morning through the region.
Temperatures will slowly warm through the day and almost all precipitation will become just a cold rain by afternoon.
End update
Light moisture flow overrunning cold air will bring the risk of wintry precipitation types to western Virginia on Sunday morning.
The National Weather Service has placed several localities along and west of the Blue Ridge under a winter weather advisory for the possibility of a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Precipitation is expected to spread into the region near or just before sunrise as a mixed wintry bag, but then become mostly freezing rain and then just plain cold rain as temperatures slowly warm through the day.
Moisture will struggle to reach areas farther east before temperatures rise above freezing, so any wintry precipitation in lower elevations east of the Blue Ridge is expected to be brief if it occurs at all with no problems expected. Some areas in the southwest tip of Virginia west of a Bluefield to Bristol line also may escape frozen precipitation as milder air arrives sooner from the southwest and is less obstructed by the cold wedge of air that will be banked against the mountains from the northeast.
Along and west of the Blue Ridge, patchy ice or slush on roadways is possible as many road surfaces have been fairly cold the past few days. Icy roads will be of most concern in shaded sections of rural roadways, plus bridges and overpasses, though slick patches could develop at least briefly almost anywhere within the winter weather advisory area.
This wintry precipitation flirtation is being caused by high pressure over southeast Canada pressing a wedge of cold air southward, banking against the Appalachians, as a low-pressure system moving northeast toward the Great Lakes region lifts moisture northward over and into that colder air.
Because the high is moving eastward and the low is so far away, the depth of neither the cold air nor the moisture will be sufficient to support widespread or heavy wintry precipitation. Ice accretions are expected to remain less than 1/10 of an inch, below levels that would threaten tree limbs and power lines, and any snow or sleet accumulation that might occur at the start is expected to be minimal.
Total rainfall amounts, including that falling after temperatures rise above freezing, are expected to be below a quarter inch areawide.
Although temperatures this far in December are averaging around 3 to 4 degrees below normal for the first half of the month, wintry precipitation in Southwest and Southside Virginia has thus far been limited mostly to typical upslope-enhanced snow showers behind cold fronts with light accumulation affecting mainly higher elevations in the western fringe and southwest corner of the state.
Long-term dryness, interrupted by three tropical systems in August and September, most prominently the inland effects of Hurricane Helene, has continued, and what wet systems there have been, such as Monday-Wednesday last week, have occurred between cold spells.
Mild temperatures, 50s and some 60s highs, are expected in the week ahead before another cold shot late in the week.
There has been some online chatter about the possibility that an upper-level low may dig into the southern and eastern U.S. next weekend after that cold shot arrives, possibly raising the specter of more widespread wintry precipitation in the days before Christmas, but many details of this, including the actual existence of the upper-level low, are in doubt this far out.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter:
