Virginians are united on one thing: They’re glad the presidential election is over.
A post-election poll by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College found that 57% of those surveyed said they were “happy it’s over,” although 26% described themselves as “shocked” and 15% said they were “numb.”
Beyond that, Virginians remain pretty much in the same mood as they were before the election — except for one thing. Republicans, who recorded high “political anxiety” when there was a Democrat in the White House, are now much calmer. Meanwhile, Democrats, who showed little political anxiety with Joe Biden, now have high anxiety as Donald Trump prepares to take office.
This matches other polls we’ve seen nationally: Republicans, who were worried about the economy before the election, now aren’t, while Democrats have taken their place. Such is often the nature of elections.
Roanoke College always asks a question about whether the nation is on the “wrong track” or “right track.” The answer is perpetually “wrong track.” Since the election, we have seen those numbers trend upward — from 64% in October to 73% in November. That number, though, is exactly what it was in February and is lower than the 77% in May 2022, early in Biden’s term. In eight of the past 13 Roanoke College surveys over the past two years, the “wrong track” figure has been in the 70% range, so November’s bad feelings may be more of a return to normal than any new anxiety. Only once in 18 surveys during Trump’s first term did the “wrong track” figure top 70%.
Here’s what really catches my eye as we gear up for a governor’s race next year: While Virginians are sour about the state of the country, they feel OK about Virginia — and Virginia’s governor.
The poll found that while nearly three-quarters of Virginians think the country is on the wrong track, 52% think the state is on the right track. Virginians are almost always optimistic about how things are going here at home. Of 26 surveys since 2017, only two have found Virginians in a negative mood, while one found the answers tied.
Meanwhile, most Virginians continue to approve of how Gov. Glenn Youngkin is handling his job: 52% said they approve, 39% disapprove. Youngkin has been at 50% or higher throughout his term. Previous Democratic governors sometimes scored higher, but it’s notable that Youngkin’s approval rating has generally been slightly higher than the 50.6% of the vote he was elected with.
That raises several questions about next year’s governor’s race, which will apparently pit Democrat Abigail Spanberer, who is retiring as Virginia’s 7th District representative, against Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.
If Virginians are happy with the state of the state, and the performance of the governor, does that help Earle-Sears?
Or will Virginians’ distaste for Trump help Spanberger? In the state elections that followed Trump’s first inauguration, voters reacted by swinging strongly toward Democrats. This Roanoke College poll finds most Virginians still don’t think much of Trump — 55% have an unfavorable opinion. In nine years of polling by Roanoke College, Virginians have never liked Trump, although his unfavorable ratings have been higher at times. In August 2023, they hit 65% unfavorable. Here, though, might be the politically more relevant figure: In the last poll before the 2017 state elections, then-President Trump had a 54% unfavorable rating in Virginia, about the same as it is now. Then Virginians elected a Democratic governor and saw Democrats pick up more seats in the House of Delegates than at any time since 1899. If voters feel the same way about him now as they did then, does that portend the same kind of Democratic swing in 2025? Next year this time, we’ll know.
The poll asked two other questions about Trump that produced interesting results:
Do you think Donald Trump understands and cares about people like you? The poll found that 58% said no.
Respondents were also given five words to describe Trump and asked to pick the one that described him best. Here’s how those answers ranked:
Leader 29%
Criminal 26%
Disruptor 17%
Fascist 15%
Visionary 10%
Unsure/refused 4%
That’s 41% with a negative word (criminal or fascist) and 39% with a positive word (leader or visionary) while “disruptor” seems a more neutral description.
You can find more on the poll here.
Is Bob Good preparing to run for president?
I’ll address the internet speculation about Good’s plans in Friday’s edition of West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter. I’ll also look at how French TV viewed Virginia during the recent election and chat up a country musician from Rockingham County with a new politically-themed song. You can sign up for that or any of our other free newsletters below:
