Updated Nov. 21: State Navigate has recalculated results based on new numbers from Hampton, and that changed the number of districts from seven to eight. This column has been updated to reflect that change.
Even in a weak year for Democrats, Kamala Harris carried 59 of Virginia’s House of Delegates districts, according to computations by the Virginia-based State Navigate site that tracks state legislative races across the country.
Democrats currently hold 51 seats in the House, with Republicans claiming 49.
The fact that the Democratic presidential candidate carried eight districts now held by Republicans raises the question of whether Democrats are positioned to increase their majority in the House in the 2025 elections.
In addition, three other Republican-held House districts saw Donald Trump carry those districts but with less than a majority vote. In four more, Trump won with less than 52% of the vote, which suggests that those Republican incumbents might be vulnerable, too. Ten more Republican legislators are in districts that Trump carried with between 52% and 55% of the vote.
By contrast, no Democratic legislators are in districts that Trump won. Only one is in a district where Harris won with less than 52% of the vote; three are in districts where she won with between 52% and 55%.
The State Navigate analysis, which was shared with Cardinal News, suggests that Republicans will be playing more defense than offense in next year’s elections. This is not necessarily unusual. Before Trump, it was common for General Assembly districts that voted Democratic in a presidential election to vote Republican in a state election, primarily because many Democrats tended to only vote in presidential years. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 17 House of Delegates districts held by Republicans. The next year, though, Democrats turned out in force and won 14 of those districts, the biggest legislative shift in Virgnia since 1899.
That brings us to three political factors that will be at play next year that could emphasize or negate these numbers:
- How Virginians react to the second Trump administration: With just one exception since 1977, the party out of power in Washington has won the governor’s race in Virginia. When Trump was president the first time around, Virginians reacted negatively, and Democrats saw those big gains in the House of Delegates in 2017. Will Virginians react the same way this time around, or are they more numb to Trump these days? They certainly didn’t react as negatively in the recent election; will things be different once Trump is actually in office?
- Which party does the better job of turning out their voters: Off-year elections have traditionally favored Republicans because Democratic voters tended to be more low-propensity voters who only showed up in presidential years, which is how Republican state legislators held onto those state legislative districts that otherwise voted Democratic. As the parties have realigned, Democrats have picked up more white-collar voters (who tend to vote regularly), and Republicans have picked up more blue-collar voters (who tend to show up less regularly). Glenn Youngkin was able to buck that trend in 2021; rural turnout was up markedly, and it benefited him, but that was also against the backdrop of a Democratic presidency. Can Republicans repeat that with Trump in office?
- How Virginians feel about the state’s direction, and who they credit or blame for that: The Roanoke College poll shows that Virginians generally think the state is on the right track. If that mood holds, will voters credit their outgoing Republican governor or their Democratic legislature?
Here’s a look at the most vulnerable House districts in 2025 (the Senate won’t be up for reelection until 2027):
The 8 Republican districts that went for Harris
We’ll look at these in descending order, from the highest Harris vote to the lowest. Consider these the most vulnerable Republican incumbents.
House District 57: Del. David Owen (R-Henrico County)
2023: David Owen (R) 50.77%, Susanna Gibson (D) 48.77%
2024: Kamala Harris (D) 53.53%, Donald Trump (R) 44.12%
Of the seven Republican districts that Harris won, this is where Democrats did best and Republicans worst (we’ll take these in descending order). This is the district where last year the Democratic candidate had her sex videos exposed. I wrote a post-election analysis in which I concluded that Owen would have likely won anyway but every year is different. One thing that will be very different in all these races in 2025: The General Assembly candidates won’t be at the top of the ticket as they were last year; they’ll be running at the same time as the candidates for governor. In an era with less ticket-splitting than in the past, that might influence some of these races.
House District 75: Del. Carrie Coyner, R-Chesterfield County
2023: Carrie Coyner (R) 52.76%, Stephen Miller-Pitts Jr. (D) 46.97%
2024: Kamala Harris (D) 52.51%, Donald Trump (R) 45.94%
Coyner has been one of the Republicans’ rising stars and has struck a more moderate tone than most. She was one of three Republican legislators to vote to abolish the death penalty and one of five to vote to protect same-sex marriages. She also has the political misfortune to be in Chesterfield County, a county that’s been trending Democratic and one of the few localities where Harris got more votes in 2024 than Biden did in 2020.
House District 71: Del. Amanda Batten, R-James City County
2023: Amanda Batten (R) 50.90%, Jessica Anderson (D) 49.03%
2024: Kamala Harris (D) 51.61%, Donald Trump (R) 46.68%
Batten is a member of the Republican House leadership; she’s the caucus chair. She also narrowly won reelection last year, by just 667 votes. Batten also benefited because Democratic donors didn’t put much money into Anderson’s campaign. I wrote a post-election analysis that showed how underfunded Anderson’s campaign was relative to some other Democratic candidates who didn’t do as well as she did. Will Democrats make that same mistake again?
House District 82: Del. Kim Taylor, R-Petersburg
2023: Kim Taylor (R) 50.05%, Kimberly Adams (D) 49.78%
2024: Kamala Harris (D) 51.51%, Donald Trump (R) 47.36%
This race went to a recount last year, with Taylor winning by 53 votes, so this district was always expected to be close, no matter how the presidential candidates fared. One thing of note: This district includes Surry County, which voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1972 until this one, when it went Republican. While some suburban Republicans might suffer from realignment, Taylor might benefit.
House District 89: Del. Baxter Ennis, R-Chesapeake
2023: Baxter Ennis (R) 50.76%, Karen Jenkins (D) 48.97%
2024: Kamala Harris (D) 50.83%, Donald Trump (R) 47.58%
Of the seven Republican districts that Harris won, this was the last one where she won a majority. In the final two, she won only a plurality, which makes things a wee bit better for Republicans next year.
House District 86: Del. A.C. Cordoza, R-Hampton
2023: A.C. Cordoza (R) 56.35%, Jarris Taylor (D) 43.48%
2024: Kamala Harris (D) 49.86%, Donald Trump (R) 48.30%
A.C. Cordoza won this districtly handily in 2023 but new calculations how it went slightly for Harris this year.
House District 73: Del. Mark Earley Jr., R-Chesterfield County
2023: Mark Earley Jr. (R) 54.41%, Herb Walke Jr. 45.40%
2024: Kamala Harris (D) 49.57%, Donald Trump (R) 48.50%
Earley, the son of a former attorney general, won by a comfortable margin last year, but this is Chesterfield County, which, as we noted, has been trending blue. Still, Harris couldn’t quite manage a majority here, although she still outpolled Trump, slightly.
House District 22: Del. Ian Lovejoy, R-Prince William County
2023: Ian Lovejoy (R) 52.19%, Travis Hembhard (D) 47.58%
2024: Kamala Harris (D) 48.8%, Donald Trump (R) 48.09%
Lovejoy won one of the closer House races last year; this year, of the seven Republican districts that went for Harris, his was the closest.
* * *
Other vulnerable Republicans
There are 13 other Republican legislators in districts where the presidential race was close but tipped toward the Republican side. I’m counting anything under 55% as close. Of those 13, here are eight where Trump took less than 53%.
House District 30: Del. Geary Higgins, R-Loudoun County
2023: Geary Higgins (R) 53.12%, Rob Banse (D) 46.71%
2024: Donald Trump (R) 49.39%, Kamala Harris (D) 48.21%
This had been considered a close race last year but didn’t really end up that way. Might next year be different? The presidential results suggest “maybe.”
House District 69: Del. Chad Green, R-York County
2023: Chad Green (R) 91.27%, Write-ins 8.73%
2024: Donald Trump (R) 49.89%, Kamala Harris 48.29%
It seems safe to say that Green is going to have a tougher campaign next year than he did last year, when there was no Democrat on the ballot to oppose him.
House District 64: Del. Paul Milde, R-Stafford County
2023: Paul Milde (R) 54.32%, Leonard Lacey (D) 45.29%
2024: Donald Trump (R) 49.94%, Kamala Harris (D) 48.03%
Milde won by a decent margin last year. However, Stafford County is one of five localities in the state that voted for Trump in 2016 but didn’t in 2020 or 2024. This is a county that’s realigning, and his challenge will be to not get caught in those electoral changes.
House District 41: Del. Chris Obenshain, R-Montgomery County
2023: Chris Obenshain (R) 50.31%, Lily Franklin (D) 49.57%
2024: Donald Trump (R) 50.35%, Kamala Harris (D) 47.47%
Blacksburg, a blue island surrounded by a red sea, is what makes this district competitive. Franklin came close two years ago and complained after the election that Democratic donors “didn’t understand or care about Southwest Virginia.” She pointed out that she received one-fourth of what some battleground races received but wound up running better. My post-election analysis found that, mathematically speaking, she was right: Democrats underfunded this race, along with Anderson’s race in James City County. Franklin has already announced she’s seeking a rematch; will Democratic donors take her more seriously this time? Conversely, will Republicans realize that just because this district is west of the Blue Ridge, it’s not a given for their party and invest more in Obenshain?
House District 66: Del. Bobby Orrock, R-Spotsylvania County
2023: Bobby Orrock (R) 55.61%, Mark Lux (D) 44.13%
2024: Donald Trump (R) 50.42%, Kamala Harris (D) 48.10%
Orrock has been a popular vote-getter in this district, but Trump barely scraped out a majority. If there’s a voter backlash to Trump next year the way there was the last time he was president, can Orrock manage to disassociate himself?
House District 99: Del. Anne Ferrell Tata, R-Virginia Beach
2023: Anne Tata (R) 57.28%, Cat Porterfield (D) 42.61%
2024: Donald Trump (R) 51.46%, Kamala Harris 46.71%
Tata won handily last year, but Trump struggled in this district. Virginia Beach is one of five localities that he won in 2016 but lost in 2020 and 2024. If “the beach” is realigning, will secure Republicans such as Tata find themselves in trouble? We’ll find out.
House District 100: Del. Robert Bloxom Jr., R-Accomack County
2023: Robert Bloxom (R) 59.64%, Charlena Jones (D) 40.23%
2024: Donald Trump (R) 51.95%, Kamala Harris (D) 46.75%
The Bloxom name goes back a long way in Eastern Shore politics, and this particular Bloxom won by a landslide margin last year. Trump, however, did not. Will Democrats see an opportunity here or think Bloxom is immune?
House District 34: Del. Tony Wilt, R-Harrisonburg
2023: Tony Wilt (R) 56.87%, Esther Nizer (D) 43.04%
2024: Donald Trump (R) 52.28%, Kamala Harris 45.74%
The key to this district for Democrats is Harrisonburg; can they squeeze more student votes out of James Madison University? For Republicans, the hope is they can’t and the Republican base in Rockingham County holds (including my hometown of McGaheysville).
The other six Republicans who represent districts where Trump took between 53% and 55%:
House District 83: Del. Otto Wachmann, R-Sussex County; Trump vote 53.47%
House District 74: Del. Mike Cherry, R-Colonial Heights; Trump vote 53.49%
House District 49: Del. Danny Marshall, R-Danville; Trump vote 53.70%
House District 40: Del. Joe McNamara, R-Roanoke; Trump vote 53.79%
House District 52: Del. Wendell Walker, R-Lynchburg; Trump vote 54.85%
* * *
Vulnerable Democrats
There aren’t nearly as many, at least based on the presidential math, but there are some. Three are in districts where Harris took less than 53% of the vote:
House District 21: Del. Josh Thomas, D-Prince William County
2023: Josh Thomas (D) 51.72%, John Stirrup (R) 48.10%
2024: Kamala Harris (D) 51.26%, Donald Trump (R) 46.03%
This was one of the closest races in the state last year; there’s no reason to think it won’t be again.
House District 55: Del. Amy Laufer, D-Albemarle County
2023: Amy Laufer (D) 61.38%, Steve Harvey (R) 38.50%
2024: Kamala Harris (D) 52.66%, Donald Trump (R) 44.79%
Laufer won by a thunderous margin last year, but Harris was not nearly so popular in this district this time. Based on the 2023 results, Laufer would seem to be safe. Based on the 2024 numbers, maybe not so much. Of note: Laufer is one of the few Democrats these days whose district has a lot of rural territory. No doubt mindful of that, she recently attended the Virginia Rural Summit in Wytheville.
House District 97: Del. Michael Feggans, D-Virginia Beach
2023: Michael Feggans (D) 52.37%, Karen Greenhalgh (R) 47.52%
2024: Kamala Harris (D) 52.99%, Donald Trump (R) 45.15%
This was one of the most closely contested House races last year and could well be so again next year.
One other Democrat has a district that came close to hitting the 53% or less mark: Del. Joshua Cole, D-Fredericksburg, represents House District 65. He won last year with 52.84% of the vote. Harris this year took 53.59% in that district, an unusual case of a district where the Harris mark exceeded the Democratic share a year ago.
In presidential races, we’re accustomed to having battleground states. These districts will be the battleground districts in next year’s House races.
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