Drought to deluge back to drought again.
That has been the autumn weather saga in Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside Virginia coverage area, as headlines about recovery from epic floods in some areas with Hurricane Helene continue through what has become a historic dry spell in much of our region.
There is currently some potential for rainfall through Thursday with scattered showers as a weak cold front passes, and then possibly something a little more substantial and widespread that might even involve a tropical system by the weekend — maybe. We’ll get back to that. First, we take a look at just how dry it has been since it was very wet.
With only .05 inch, Danville recorded its driest October on record, beating out .13 from the same month in 2000, which continues to lead the list of dry Octobers at Lynchburg and Roanoke, and is second at Blacksburg. This October ranked third driest at Lynchburg (.20), ninth driest at Blacksburg (.61) and Roanoke (.91), almost all of that rain in the first day or two of the month.
Through Tuesday, Lynchburg had gone 34 days without measurable rain. If possible scattered showers miss the Hill City through midnight on this Wednesday, the 35-day dry streak will be tied for second longest since records began in 1893, matching another that ended Oct. 9, 1941 — early October 1941 was extremely hot in our region with upper 90s highs not seen again in October until briefly in 2019. The still-leading dry streak is 40 days that ended Nov. 23, 2001. The parched autumns of 2000 and 2001 were part of a two-pronged extreme drought many of us remember in the years surrounding the turn of the century.
As Oct. 2 rolled into Oct. 3, Lynchburg had recorded measurable rain on 10 of 12 previous days, totaling 4 ½ inches, the combination of a stalling front prior to Hurricane Helene, the inland effects of Helene’s weakening circulation, and then moisture from Helene pulled into a slow-moving upper-level low. Since Oct. 3, sprinkles on Oct. 15 recorded as an unmeasurable “trace” are all the rain that has been fallen in the Hill City.
Roanoke would have a streak one day longer than Lynchburg’s if .01 hadn’t fallen in weak showers with a passing cold front on Oct. 15. The current streak reached 21 days on Tuesday, not quite a top 20 streak historically going back to 1917, as many years have had streaks of 22 to 29 days, most of them in the fall. Like Lynchburg, Roanoke’s record 40-day dry streak occurred in October and November of 2001,
Despite its record-setting dry October, Danville doesn’t have any kind of long dry streak going, as .02 rain fell as recently as Oct. 28. Before getting .01 on Tuesday, Blacksburg had last got rain on Oct. 16.
While the above records focus on the National Weather Service’s four major climate stations in our region, each with at least a century of weather records, other locations are experiencing long dry spells as well. For instance, it appears the Wytheville co-op station, with data going back to 1930, set a new record for consecutive days without rain on Monday, its 35th in a row, beating out 34 ending Feb. 28, 1968.
(A reminder here that Lexington has one of longest data sets of any location in our region, as far back as 1889, but has had no cooperative weather observer since mid-summer. If you live in the Lexington area and have any interest in filling this volunteer role, email me at weather@cardinalnews.org and I’ll get you in touch with the weather service.)
Last week’s U.S. Drought Monitor showed that almost all of Virginia had lapsed back into “abnormally dry” status, except for the Southwest corner mostly west of Interstate 77, which got the most rain from Helene and the preceding stalled front and has gotten somewhat more showers with a couple of passing cold fronts since.
Virginia’s October dryness is not an isolated event, as most of the nation, excluding just a few splotches, was considered “abnormally dry” as of last week with enhanced areas of more extreme drought in West Virginia and Ohio, much of the Ozarks into the Southern Plains, the Big Bend region of Texas, and some areas of the northern High Plains and northern Rockies.
The eastern two-thirds of the nation has been dominated by a strong dome of high pressure aloft, which has blocked most stronger cold fronts and low-pressure systems from dipping southward as often starts happening this time of year, while also suppressing tropical systems.
In the past several days, the jet stream has started dipping farther south in the West, leading to cold weather and mountain snow. This past weekend the new pattern started bringing severe storms along with needed rainfall to parts of the central U.S., and in time this may erode the high somewhat eastward.
Also, there is Hurricane Rafael moving northward out of the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico that may threaten the Gulf Coast by the weekend.
Some of this moisture may get pulled into a sprawling storm system over the central U.S. that might even pull a band of rain through here by Saturday or Sunday, but this is still pretty iffy at this writing — too iffy to say yet if it will be a rain that could ease drought or one that could pour a little too much too fast again, somewhere.
The prospects for ending dry streaks with at least minor rainfall are increasing, but it is still unclear if a soaking rain that might quell growing wildfire risk is in the offing soon.
Halloween extremes
If you sweated a little in your Halloween costume last week, you may have quickly been taken back in your mind to shivering in one not that long ago.
That wasn’t your imagination. Last Halloween was as chilly as this one was toasty.
Using Lynchburg as an example, this Halloween averaged 65.5 degrees, the mean between a 79 high and 52 low, the 10th warmest Oct. 31 on record since official local weather data began in 1892.
Last Halloween was 22 degrees colder, averaging 43.5 degrees between a 54 high and 33 low, the 10th coolest Oct. 31 on record.
Oct. 31, 2023, even brought a few spits of snow to parts of the New River Valley and westward.
But on Oct. 31, 2024, Roanoke almost set a record high temperature on Halloween at 82 degrees, exceeded only by 83 in 1919, 1946 and 1950.
With high pressure expected to dominate over the eastern half of the country, it appears November is likely to tilt warmer than normal at least through mid-month and quite likely beyond, though there may be some cooler interruptions at times. No sign yet of any winterlike Arctic blasts.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter:
