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More money was spent last month to win a single ward seat representing one-fourth of Lynchburg than was spent on the entire Roanoke mayor’s race.
That’s the big headline out of the most recent round of campaign finance reports for candidates seeking local office this fall. (Thanks to the Virginia Public Access Project for making those accessible.)
The Ward I seat in Lynchburg is historically a swing district and this year is an open seat with the retirement of incumbent Maryjane Dolan. The three-way race to succeed Dolan is the most competitive race in the Hill City and easily the most expensive local race this side of Richmond.
The spending there is driven by Republican Jacqueline Timmer who, to date, has raised $80,776, more than any other local candidate in the region. By contrast, the most well-funded candidate for Roanoke mayor, Democrat Joe Cobb, has raised $56,800.
Over the past month, the three candidates in Lynchburg’s Ward I combined have spent $31,603. By contrast, the three candidates seeking the mayor’s chair in Roanoke have spent $20,087.
Here’s another way to look at the campaign spending in Lynchburg’s Ward I: Four years ago, Dolan spent $32,769 on her entire campaign, while her opponent spent $21,124, for a total of $53,893. So far this year, the three candidates seeking to win that seat this year have raised $115,881.
Meanwhile, the three candidates for mayor of Roanoke have so far raised $126,918 — which makes that a cheaper race so far than the $192,944 spent in the Roanoke mayor’s race four years ago.
Before I go into the money race-by-race, let me deliver my usual cautionary note about campaign spending: The candidates with the most money don’t always win. What matters is whether a candidate has enough money to get his or her message out. Now, let’s look at the campaign spending in the two biggest cities on the western side of the state.
Roanoke mayor: Cobb has raised the most but has the least going into the final weeks
Three candidates:
Democrat Joe Cobb
Republican David Bowers
Independent Stephanie Moon Reynolds
There are many ways to measure money. Different measurements present different pictures, which may be favorable (or unfavorable) to different candidates. I’ll show them all and you can draw whatever conclusions you see fit.
Total fundraising: Over the course of the campaign, Cobb has raised the most by far:
Cobb $56,800
Moon Reynolds $40,690
Bowers $28,708
For Bowers, that’s significantly less money than he’s had in previous campaigns. Four years ago, when he ran and lost as an independent, he raised $120,968. In 2012, when he ran and won as a Democrat, he raised $133,373. It’s risky, though, to draw too many comparisons. In 2012, Roanoke municipal elections were still in May, so it was up to the local candidates to drive the turnout. Now, those elections align with the presidential race, the highest voting cycle of all, so the candidates don’t have to worry about generating turnout; they just need to capture the vote. By running on a party ticket, Bowers might also need less money than he did as an independent.
Over last month: These reports cover Sept. 1-Sept. 30, so cover the beginning of the early voting period. By this point in the campaign, I’m more interested in how much candidates are spending rather than how they’ve raised (unless there’s some big influx of cash) — presumably they’ve raised money earlier and are spending it now.
In September, Cobb spent the most ($10,575) with Bowers second ($5,616) and Moon Reynolds third ($3,896).
What’s left: It’s also worth keeping an eye on how much candidates have in the bank that they can draw on for a final spending blitz. The classic example is Doug Wilder’s campaign for lieutenant governor in 1985; he didn’t raise much money but he husbanded his money well and had enough to spend on advertising when it mattered most. Things are different now with early voting, but candidates still don’t want to run out.
Going into October, Moon Reynolds had the most money ($13,778), followed by Bowers ($11,220) with Cobb third ($7,230). Moon Reynolds seems well-positioned to outspend her rivals in the lead-up to the election. Cobb, if he’s so inclined, is in a position to plead poverty to raise more money, even though he’s been the best-funded candidate in the race.
Roanoke City Council: Hagen, Nash and McGuire are the best-funded
Seven candidates seeking three seats:
Democrats Terry McGuire, Phazhon Nash, Ben Woods
Republicans Jim Garrett and Nick Hagen
Independents Evelyn Powers and Cathy Reynolds
Updated with final reports posted this morning: Republican Nick Hagen is the best-funded of the seven city council candidates. This is notable because Roanoke hasn’t elected a Republican to city council since 2000. Again, money doesn’t always translate into electoral success but lack of money sure translates into the opposite. Overall, three candidates stand apart from the pack in terms of overall fundraising: Hagen, McGuire and Nash, in that order.
Total fundraising:
Nick Hagen $41,587
Terry McGuire $39,966
Phazhon Nash $37,482
Jim Garrett $19,078
Ben Woods $17,476
Evelyn Powers $10,052
Cathy Reynolds $950
However, some of these figures are misleading because the Democrats’ totals include what they raised to compete in the June primary. That’s why we ought to look at more recent measures to get a sense of the money situation in the Roanoke City Council race.
Over last month: Nash raised the most: $9,305. Hagen was next at $8,625. Woods was further behind at $3,100, followed by Garrett at $2,575, McGuire at $2,205, Powers at $1,626 and Reynolds at $69.
During that time, Hagen spent the most: $15,551. Powers spent the most: $3,586, followed by Nash at $3,374, McGuire at $2,740, Garrett at $2,698, Woods at $1,170 and Reynolds at $69.
What’s left: McGuire has the most: $15,900, which is a substantial chunk of change in a local race. Nash has $9,019 in the bank, followed by Garrett with $5,521, Powers at $4,724, Woods with $3,443, Hagen at $1,831 and Reynolds with $50.
Woods is the least-funded Democrat and presumably the most vulnerable. None of these candidates have been elected before, except for Powers, who has been the city treasurer. Garrett and Hagen have both run and lost before, although Hagen came close two years ago. Is Roanoke so Democratic that the base Democratic vote will carry Woods to victory? Or, with Powers (who won as a Democrat for treasurer) split the vote enough that he might be in jeopardy? This is why we have elections and don’t pick office-holders the way we rank college football teams in a poll.
Lynchburg City Council Ward I: Timmer swamps the competition money-wise but Smith gets the single biggest donation
Democrat Randy Smith
Republican Jacqueline Timmer
Independent Cameron Craddock Howe
Total fundraising: Not even close. Timmer tops the list.
Jacqueline Timmer $80,726
Randy Smith $22,402
Cameron Craddock Howe $12,703
Over last month: Smith raised the most ($12,073) followed by Timmer ($6,455) and Howe ($3,320).
Smith’s fundraising haul was boosted by $10,563 by Rural Ground Game, a Democratic group focused on smaller communities. That’s also more money than Timmer’s single biggest donation to date ($9,377 from R and P Hospitality, Inc.).
With her big financial headstart, Timmer spent the most ($17,177), followed by Smith ($11,410) and Howe ($3,016).
What’s left: Timmer has $18,193 in the bank, Smith $6,695, Howe $2,356. That means she has more money to spend for a single ward seat than any of the candidates for Roanoke mayor do. That’s how disportionate the spending is in this race.
Lynchburg City Council Ward 2: Wilder also gets boost from Rural Ground Game
Democrat Sterling Wilder (incumbent)
Republican Rodney Hubbard
Independent Tori Howard
Total fundraising: Wilder has outpaced Hubbard, $6,646 to $4,347. Howard’s report had not been filed as of Tuesday night.
Over the last month: Wilder raised $5,236, with $4,356 of that coming from Rural Ground Game. Hubbard raised $1,150. With that Rural Ground Game money, Wilder outspent Hubbard $4,536 to $2,012.
What’s left: Wilder has $980, Hubbard $162. When it comes to spending, this race is on a much lower level than any of the others.
Lynchburg City Council Ward 3: Diemer makes up for late start but Coleman leads fundraising
Democrat James Coleman
Republican Curt Diemer
Updated 6:25 p.m., Oct. 16 after Coleman’s campaign filed an amended report.
Total fundraising: This race is notable because incumbent Jeff Helgeson, a Republican, abruptly dropped out in early September just before the deadline for when parties could replace candidates on the ballot. The substitute nominee, Diemer, started with $10 and has now raised $11,600. With Coleman’s amended report, Coleman now stands at $15,159, about twice what his original report said.
Over the last month: Well, that is the last month. Despite his late start, Diemer also managed to outspend Coleman, $4,475 to $3,962. Unlike the other Democrat candidates in Lynchburg, Coleman’s report shows no money from Rural Ground Game. (Note: VPAP has posted new total for Coleman’s campaign, but hasn’t updated the details. I’ll update them when I get them. It seems highly likely that will change the original figure reported below.)
What’s left: Diemer has $7,194 on hand, Coleman $4,985.
Lynchburg City Council Ward 4: Faraldi has the most, but Watson gets a big donation and outspends him
Republican Chris Faraldi (incumbent)
Democrat April Watson
Total fundraising: Just as with the Democratic candidates for Roanoke City Council, the overall fundraising here is misleading because the totals include what Faraldi had to raise for a hotly contested primary (and the legal challenge that followed afterward). For the cycle, he’s at $74,483 and Watson is at $15,187 but that’s not truly reflective of the current state of things, so let’s move on.
Over the last month: Watson outraised Faraldi in September, thanks to a big donation from Rural Ground Game. She raised $12,132 for the month; $10,563 of that from Rural Ground Game. Faraldi raised $6,348. With that big donation, Watson also outspent Faraldi, $12,301 to $3,884.
What’s left: Faraldi has the most: $6,721 to Watson’s $1,290.
Other races are much less expensive
Other communities across Southwest and Southside don’t have races anywhere as expensive as the ones in Lynchburg and Roanoke. In Danville, where nine candidates are seeking five seats on council, Madison Whittle has raised the most at $30,972, with Lee Vogler second at $11,446. In Salem, the top fundraiser is Jim Wallace at $11,402. In Martinsville, Julian Mei who has raised $4,725. One of the most inexpensive places to run is Radford. With two reports still unfiled, the biggest fundraiser there has raised just $2,376 for a school board race; $1,736 is tops in the council race. That doesn’t mean there isn’t interest in the race. Over the past week, the four most-searched-for candidates in our Voter Guide are from Radford (and six of the top seven, and eight of the top 10). Meanwhile, the mot parsimonious candidate is Radford school board candidate Rebecca Dunn. Her report shows she’s raised $0 and spent $0.
More on these campaign finance reports
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