Satellite imagery captures the swirl of Francine, in the western Gulf of Mexico just off the Texas coast at the left of the photo, just as it was declared a hurricane by the National Hurricane Center early Tuesday evening. Courtesy of NOAA.
Satellite imagery captures the swirl of Francine, in the western Gulf of Mexico just off the Texas coast at the left of the photo, just as it was declared a hurricane by the National Hurricane Center early Tuesday evening. Courtesy of NOAA.

A slumbering 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has awakened with the emergence of Hurricane Francine in the western Gulf of Mexico, due for a Louisiana landfall on this Wednesday afternoon.

You can check up on the latest information on Francine by clicking this link to the National Hurricane Center.

Perhaps the name “Francine” has you scratching your head that maybe you’ve lived through this storm sometime before — we’ll explore that farther below. (We’ll also take a look at recent unseasonably cold mornings deeper in this column.)

At this point, it appears the circulation center of Francine will stay well west of Virginia, essentially following the Mississippi River northward to somewhere near Memphis by Friday. The heaviest rainfall with its inland track is expected to paint a stripe east of the center, south to north through Mississippi and into western Tennessee.

The projected course of Hurricane Francine and its inland circulation center. Courtesy of National Hurricane Center.
The projected course of Hurricane Francine and its inland circulation center. Courtesy of National Hurricane Center.

Barring a hard right turn, Francine’s effects on Virginia are expected to be indirect or occur so long after its inland dissipation that it may be hard to tell if they’re connected to the former tropical cyclone or not.

Virginia being east of the circulation center, the counterclockwise spin may pull some Gulf of Mexico moisture our way over the next few days, increasing humidity after several crisp, cool, dry days, and bolstering shower chances somewhat over the weekend and into early next week.

Also, there isn’t much to steer Francine around once it moves inland, with the stronger jet stream flow retreating to Canada as warm, dry high pressure builds back over us after our early taste of fall, so Francine may dither and wither somewhere east of the Mississippi, and that might randomly spin some showers and thunderstorms toward us at some point.

If you’re looking for Francine to break the once-again deepening dryness in and around Cardinal News country that Tropical Storm Debby and some occasionally more organized storminess helped ease in late July and the first half of August, you’re likely going to be sorely disappointed.

Projected rainfall from Hurricane Frances and its inland remnants stay south and west of even the southwest corner of Virginia. Courtesy of National Hurricane Center.
Projected rainfall from Hurricane Frances and its inland remnants stay south and west of even the southwest corner of Virginia. Courtesy of National Hurricane Center.

(There is the potential for another tropical system off the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. We’ll revisit that down the road if it becomes likely.)

Stoked autumn juices with recent unseasonably chilly mornings and cool to mild afternoons in Southwest and Southside Virginia have come with the price of having only spotty and usually minimal rain in the region for at least three weeks. A Canadian air mass allowing temperatures to drop into the 30s and 40s in early September by necessity must be so dry that it isn’t going to allow much rain to develop.

You can’t have your pumpkin spice temperatures and your pumpkin-growing rainfall at the same time in early September.

Historically, we tend to have three air masses that alternate dominating our Septembers — hot and dry summer leftovers, cool and dry autumn preview, or tropically oversaturated. Cool and dry has won out so far in September 2024, though it will be getting warmer in days ahead. Francine looks very unlikely to be able to saturate us.

In case that name “Francine” sounds familiar, it may be that you remember Hurricane Fran in 1996 and Hurricane Frances in 2004. Those “Fran” storms directly affected Virginia, both in early September, in a weakened but still potent inland form. Both names have been retired permanently from the hurricane list because of their track record of coastal damage plus inland effects.

Luray endures record Shenandoah River flooding from the inland effects of former Hurricane Fran in September 1996. Courtesy of Town of Luray.
Luray endures record Shenandoah River flooding from the inland effects of former Hurricane Fran in September 1996. Courtesy of Town of Luray.

Hurricane Fran, 1996

After a Category 3 hurricane landfall at Cape Fear, N.C., with 115 mph sustained winds, Fran beelined for the heart of what is now Cardinal News country, its circulation center passing over Danville and Lynchburg as a tropical storm — there was even an eye-like calm noticed by some as the center passed over. More than 400,000 utility customers lost power as stiff easterly gusts topped 50 mph at times north of the storm center.

But as with most inland tropical systems affecting our region, Fran was primarily a super-soaker, dumping over 6 inches of rain on Lynchburg on Sept. 6 and over 4 inches on Danville. This rain came after several days of periodic rain — Danville got even more rain on Sept. 4 ahead of Fran, 4.76 inches, than it did with the bulk of Fran, 4.22 inches. An upper-level low parked over the Tennessee Valley pulled in a lot of moisture from the Atlantic over our region before it guided Fran north-northwestward to its North Carolina landfall.

The James River at Holcomb Rock near Lynchburg crested at 30.99 feet, nearly 9 feet above flood stage and the fifth highest crest on record, trailing three floods caused by hurricane remnants — Juan in 1985 (42.15 feet), Camille in 1969 (35.5 feet), and Agnes in 1972 (32.38 feet) — and a March 1913 flood (31.30 feet).

The swath of rainfall dumped by Hurricane Fran and its inland remnants in September 1996. Courtesy of NOAA.
The swath of rainfall dumped by Hurricane Fran and its inland remnants in September 1996. Courtesy of NOAA.

It was the 14th highest flood on record on the Roanoke River at Roanoke, where about 2 ½ inches of rain fell. Danville’s Dan River gauge only started reporting data in 1996, so the flooding from Fran was the highest crest on record at 28.65 feet, nearly 8 feet above flood stage, until Hurricane Michael topped it in 2018 at 30 feet.

But Fran saved its worst torrents of rain for northern parts of the state, with more than 16 inches at Big Meadows in Shenandoah National Park, which had to close Skyline Drive and its hiking trails from the combined effects of higher-elevation wind gusts topping 70 mph and rampant flooding. It’s still the record Shenandoah River flood at Strasburg and Luray. Meteorologist Aubrey Urbanowicz of KHSV (Channel 3) in Harrisonburg looked back at the Shenandoah Valley-area effects of Hurricane Fran in this report four years ago, linked here.

In all, seven people were killed by ex-Hurricane Fran in Virginia, including two in Montgomery County, with nearly 300 homes destroyed in flooding and about 100 people needing rescue from floodwaters.

Rainfall dumped by the inland track of what was previously Hurricane Frances in September 2004 focused along and just west of the Blue Ridge in Virginia. Courtesy of NOAA.
Rainfall dumped by the inland track of what was previously Hurricane Frances in September 2004 focused along and just west of the Blue Ridge in Virginia. Courtesy of NOAA.

Hurricane Frances, 2004

Hurricane Frances is often the storm Virginians tend to forget in a truly remarkable stretch of tropical influence on the Old Dominion 20 years ago this month.

Late August had already brought the Shockoe Bottom-filling inundation of Gaston (originally considered a tropical storm at its South Carolina landfall but, upon further review, posthumously upgraded to a hurricane) in the Richmond area along with a spate of tornadoes, and later in September would bring the Virginia record 38 tornadoes of Hurricane Ivan’s remnants followed by widespread flooding from Hurricane Jeanne’s remnants.

But Frances, a depression by the time its circulation center tracked just west of Virginia, primed the pump for the flooding that Jeanne would later cause, dumping 3- to 7-inch rainfall amounts near and west of the Blue Ridge that raised some rivers into minor to moderate flood stage, with lesser amounts to the east. And there were 14 confirmed tornadoes between Interstate 64 and the Washington, D.C., area, causing mostly minor damage.

Hurricane Frances had made landfall at Sewall’s Point, Florida, as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. Remarkably, Hurricane Jeanne made landfall at almost exactly the same location as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds three weeks later.

Crepuscular rays burst over the mountains of Bland County at sunset on Friday, Sept. 6. The split in the sun's light is often caused by blockages from mountains or clouds on or beyond the horizon. Courtesy of John Dodson.
Crepuscular rays burst over the mountains of Bland County at sunset on Friday, Sept. 6. The split in the sun’s light is often caused by blockages from mountains or clouds on or beyond the horizon. Courtesy of John Dodson.

Freezing temperatures

Our region has already had its first subfreezing temperatures for the latter half of 2024, at the most expected place, but an unusual time.

Southwest Virginia icebox Burke’s Garden in Tazewell County dropped to 31 degrees on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday mornings, Sept. 7-9.

Even for a known temperature sink like Burke’s, this was unusual — it was the earliest subfreezing temperatures on the back half of the calendar in 27 years, since dropping to 30 and 31 on Sept. 5-6, 1997. Historically, Burke’s Garden averages Sept. 26 for its first temperature 32 or below in the fall.

The coldest temperature recorded elsewhere in Cardinal News’ territory was 35 degrees on Tuesday morning, Sept. 10, at Pearisburg in Giles County, following lows of 37 and 36 on the previous two mornings.

Other regional temperatures in the 30s early this week included: 38 at Clintwood on Monday; 37 on Sunday at 36 on Monday at Copper Hill (Floyd County); 39 on Monday and Tuesday at Covington; 38 on Monday and 39 on Tuesday at Gathright Dam (Alleghany County); 39 on Sunday and 38 on Monday at Pulaski; 39 on Monday at Radford; 39 on Monday and Tuesday at Richlands; 39 at Saltville on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday; and 38 at Wytheville on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

Roanoke’s low of 45 on Monday morning (Sept. 9) was the coolest it has been so early on the back half of the calendar in 36 years, since it dropped to 42 on Sept. 8, 1988.

Lynchburg set a record Sept. 8 low of 44. The Hill City’s weather records go back to the early 1890s, but the previous Sept. 8 record low was set only seven years ago, 45 in 2017. Our region had a similar early September cool spell in 2017, really the only similar one thus far in the 21st century to date.

Just as the first 90-degree temperature beat me to the release of the snowfall contest results in the spring, so the first freezing temperature has beat me to the release of the heat prediction contest results. I’m planning to announce that next week.

The sun sets brilliantly to end the day on Monday, Sept. 2, as seen from the Blue Ridge Parkway near the Botetourt-Bedford county line south of the Peaks of Otter. Courtesy of Sammy Oakey.
The sun sets brilliantly to end the day on Monday, Sept. 2, as seen from the Blue Ridge Parkway near the Botetourt-Bedford county line south of the Peaks of Otter. Courtesy of Sammy Oakey.

Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter:

Kevin Myatt has written about Southwest and Southside Virginia weather for the past two decades, previously...