Eight of the 10 candidates running in Roanoke this November have answered Cardinal’s questionnaire about where they stand on key issues. See their responses in our Voter Guide.
Roanoke has a controversial rezoning plan going before the city council on Sept. 16.
Earlier this year, a divided council voted to approve a development plan for the Evans Spring area, which some wanted to leave as green space.
More recently, 14 homeowners in the Deyerle neighborhood filed suit against the city after a rezoning will allow townhouses to be built in their single-family neighborhood.
All these things have one thing in common: a push to create more housing in the city.
Meanwhile, there are municipal elections coming up to fill the mayor’s chair and three regular seats on the city council, enough to create a new majority if voters are so inclined — and housing and zoning issues are coming up in that.
Let’s take today then to look anew at the changing demographics of Roanoke and what’s driving all this. I took one look earlier this year, but now we have some new Census Bureau data that helps paint a more complete picture. Here are five things to know.
1. Roanoke is losing population
Public perceptions often lag behind reality. Roanoke was thrilled when the 2010 census showed it had two decades of population gains — and even more thrilled when the 2020 census found that the Star City had pulled back across the 100,000-population line. However, more recent estimates by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia show that the city is losing population again — down 966 to 99,045.
Roanoke’s not alone — Botetourt County, Roanoke County and Salem are all losing population, too.
While too much population growth can cause its own problems and its own controversies, losing population is universally seen as a bad thing: Fewer residents means fewer customers for local businesses and fewer people paying taxes for services that can’t always decrease proportionately. (It costs just as much to heat a school with a full classroom as one that’s half full.) You may not want to gain a lot of people, but you sure don’t want to lose any, either. Fewer residents also likely mean a smaller workforce, which makes it harder to attract new employers because many companies prefer to locate in communities where the labor pool is growing, not shrinking.
You’d think that population declines would make it easier to find housing, not harder, but that’s not necessarily how things work. Picture a house in the Williamson Road neighborhood, built as part of the post-World War II housing boom. Once there might have been a family of four (or more!) living there. Now, though, the children have moved away and one spouse has died — so that’s a population loss of three for that house, but the house is still occupied. If someone wants to move into the community, they can’t live there; they need to go somewhere else. That’s one of the things we need to wrap our heads around: A community might be losing population but still have a housing crunch because people are moving in, just not enough to offset all the losses.
2. Roanoke is losing population two ways
Roanoke is one of just 19 localities in the state that are “double losers” — they’re losing population two ways: Deaths outnumber births, and the number of people moving out outnumbers the people moving in.
In Roanoke’s case, about 70% of the population loss is because deaths outnumber births by 683, a function of both an aging population and a declining birth rate. As demographics go, it’s probably better to have deaths over births be the main driver of population decline because that doesn’t really reflect poorly on the city in the same way that net out-migration suggests that people are “voting with their feet” against a community. However, Roanoke does have some net out-migration. From 2020 to 2023, the city saw 283 more people move out than move in. By contrast, Botetourt County, Salem and Roanoke County all saw net in-migration.
In fact, across Virginia, we’re now seeing a post-pandemic migration rearrange traditional demographic patterns. Many localities that once were seeing net out-migration are now seeing net in-migration.
Why, then, isn’t Roanoke finding itself the beneficiary of this Zoom-era migration? I don’t have a good answer for this. Cities often have people moving out. Some of that is just the cycle of life. A young couple moves into an apartment in the city because that’s what they can afford and they like the idea of the downtown nightlife. Then they have children and priorities change. They want a house, they want a yard, maybe they want a different school system, and so they wind up moving out of the city — so where two people moved in, four people moved out. However, some other cities are seeing more people move in than move out. Among them: Danville, Galax, Lynchburg and Martinsville. Why are they seeing in-migration while Roanoke is seeing out-migration? I am baffled because Roanoke seems a very desirable place to live to me, but the numbers don’t lie.
All the above deals with data that’s been out awhile but remains necessary to understanding what’s going on. Now let’s weave in some new data.
3. Roanoke is losing population in all age cohorts except 65-plus
Here might be the most worrisome set of figures: Roanoke is among a group of just 20 localities that in the three years since the last census have lost population in every age group except those 65-plus. There are generally two types of localities in this category. The most unusual are our biggest metros, because both Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads are such large population outflows. The most expected are some localities that we’ve all come to identify as hard-luck communities — the coal counties, for instance. And then there’s Roanoke. Roanoke fits in neither group. It’s not one of those big metros, and it hasn’t been hit by the decline of its main industry, either — yet Roanoke exhibits the same demographic characteristics.
Under 25? Roanoke is losing population.
Those ages 25 to 45? Roanoke is losing population.
Those 45 to 65? Roanoke is losing population.
I don’t mean to sound as if I’m piling on, but I do want to make sure people understand just how unusual this is. A quarter-century ago, Danville and Martinsville were hit by economic trauma when textiles, furniture and tobacco all collapsed about the same time. Now, those cities are coming back: In the three years since the last census, Danville and Martinsville both saw population gains among those under 25 and those 25-45. So why isn’t Roanoke? It’s odd to me since Roanoke never fell as economically low as those communities did.
Neighboring localities are facing demographic challenges, but not to the degree that Roanoke is. Both Botetourt County and Roanoke County are gaining in the 25-45 cohort; Salem is gaining in both under-25 and 25-45. The nature of these demographic changes leads to several other key points.
4. Roanoke is getting older
OK, this isn’t a surprise. The nation, as a whole, is getting older as the baby boomer generation ages. However, some places in Virginia — including many in Southwest and Southside — are now getting younger. Their median ages are dropping thanks to that in-migration of newcomers. Because Roanoke hasn’t had net in-migration, and is losing population in every age cohort under 65, its median age is pushing up. Roanoke isn’t aging nearly as fast as some places. Over the past three years, its mean age went up 0.2 years; Manassas Park went up 1.7 years. With a median age of 38.6, Roanoke isn’t that much higher than the national median of 38.3. Once again, though, we see a directional contrast: Danville and Martinsville are getting younger while Roanoke is getting older. Why?
5. Roanoke school enrollment is declining
Again, this isn’t surprising given declining birth rates and the figures you’ve just seen on falling population. Still, here are the numbers. Two decades ago, in the 2003-2004 school year, Roanoke had 13,568 students. For the 2023-2024 school year, the number was 13,088, which isn’t that much of a change, especially given the growing popularity of homeschooling. However, here’s where demography kicks in, regardless of political or social choices. The Weldon Cooper Center forecasts that by 2028-29, Roanoke’s school enrollment will fall to 12,569. That’s a drop of 4%, although that still isn’t as much as the 7% drop forecast for Portsmouth or the 16% drop for Buchanan County. Still, it is a decline, and here’s why that matters: All these students are future workers, so this means the future labor pool will be smaller than it is now — unless we’re able to add more people with in-migration, be that domestic migration or international immigration (which generally isn’t a big factor in Roanoke, percentage-wise).
A shrinking labor pool (and an aging population) makes a community less attractive to potential employers. Meanwhile, an aging population also requires more services — health-related and otherwise. I recently had a business in the Shenandoah Valley invite me to speak to their board about demographics because the facility is having trouble finding enough workers. (I’m available to speak to your civic group, too; just let me know.)
This is why Roanoke needs more people and why it needs places for them to live.
Different people may prefer different solutions, but the math is the same for all of them.
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More polls, more presidential politics
I write a weekly political newsletter, West of the Capital, that goes out Friday afternoons. This week I’ll look at some of the latest presidential polls in Virginia as well as an on-the-ground report from the 5th Congressional District. You can sign up for that or any of our free newsletters here: