“But my weather app says …”
These are five of the most horrifying words many meteorologists and weather geeks can ever hear, especially after explaining a weather situation in great detail and nuance, cast aside in favor of blind faith in the bloated confidence of a digital display.
A quarter-century deep into the 21st century, we weather enthusiasts are going to have make peace with the fact that smartphone apps are often the first thing many people not as meteorologically involved look at to get a sense of what the weather might do, and it’s going to be this way moving forward.
But users of weather apps need to realize that those apps vary greatly in their accuracy and usefulness, and absolutely none of them are capable of precise predictions of precipitation start and stop times, nor have much clarity on what is going to happen five or seven days out.
The best ones can provide a general guide for what weather is expected. And so can Cardinal News’ new “weather widget.”
For the past couple of months, Cardinal News has been providing a graphical display of current and forecast weather for six locations in its coverage area on the front of the Cardinal News web page.
This “weather widget,” developed and operated by tomorrow.io, displays current weather conditions and the daily forecast for, in order from left to right, Blacksburg, Wytheville, Roanoke, Lynchburg, Danville, and Bristol.
Clicking on each individual square in the widget opens up a much more detailed account about future weather for the specific location, including forecast temperatures and conditions for the hours and days ahead, air quality information and more.
Tomorrow.io describes itself as “the world’s premier weather intelligence and climate adaptation platform,” utilizing its own space-based data collection systems in addition to weather observation data provided by the government and other private entities, all of that funneled through artificial intelligence-driven weather models.
“Tomorrow.io’s constellation of microwave sounder satellites provides global, high-frequency measurements of atmospheric temperature, water vapor, and precipitation—even through cloud cover,” claims the tomorrow.io web site. “These advanced observations enable more accurate, real-time forecasts in areas traditionally lacking reliable weather data. By capturing comprehensive atmospheric data from space, Tomorrow.io is building the backbone of the next generation of weather forecasting.”
As we discussed in the Cardinal Weather column near D-Day in 2024, looking back on the amazing forecasting success that helped the Allies succeed in the pivotal invasion of World War II, the limits to modern weather forecasting aren’t so much the predictive abilities of AI-driven computer forecast models as they are the relative lack of data being fed into those models. Perhaps tomorrow.io’s “constellation” can fill some of that gap.
But how accurate are these forecasts, specific to Southwest and Southside Virginia?
I really don’t know yet. It will be interesting to see, especially as we get to the more erratic weather of our cooler seasons. Â
Weather entities that are more national or global in scope often misfire on the particular geographic quirks of our region. After a quarter-century of weather observation, I know about where the upslope snow squalls will stop when the winds blow northwest over the mountains. Quite often, the weather apps from national companies don’t.
But I encourage you to click on the Cardinal News “weather widget” several times in the next few months and see for yourself if it is helpful for you.
I know not everyone lives in those six places, but most of you know if your spot typically runs a little cooler or warmer than the closest one, and you can adjust expectations accordingly.
There is an important distinction in what the Cardinal News’ weather widget attempts to do and what the Cardinal Weather articles and weekly newsletter are about.
Clicking on the big “Cardinal Weather” header over the weather widget on our home page takes you to all the articles carrying the Weather tag on Cardinal News, shown in reverse chronological order, newest ones first. Most of these are my Wednesday Cardinal Weather columns, but other weather-related articles written by me and others are there too.
The weekly Cardinal Weather columns are usually not focused on granular details of a specific location’s expected weather, but rather what could be called “big picture weather” — the movement of recent, current and near future weather patterns, the historical context for the weather our region has recently experienced or will soon experience, some climate background and how some things might connect to global trends, and more generally focused articles on the weather we commonly experience in our region, especially that which carries more risk to life and property.
And you can sign up here for the Cardinal Weather newsletter that goes out each Wednesday evening about 6 p.m. There is also a line just under the weather widget where you can do the same.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Â
To submit a photo, send it to weather@cardinalnews.org or tweet it to @CardinalNewsVa or @KevinMyattWx. Please identify the location and date of the photo with each submission.
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