Lynchburg Republicans have spoken. They did not do so as clearly as they could have, because they delivered mixed results in Saturday’s party-run nominating process, picking two members of one slate and one from another when they could have delivered a clean sweep for one side or the other.
However, by nominating incumbent Marty Misjuns and picking Misjuns-aligned newcomer (at least to council politics) Veronica Bratton over incumbent Stephanie Reed while retaining Reed-aligned incumbent Larry Taylor, the party gave an advantage to one of the two Republican factions on the council that until now has been equally divided. In a statement just after midnight Saturday, Misjuns said the results were “a mandate for change.” It’s hard to argue with that. His statement also suggested that Taylor just barely won a spot over the third member of the Misjuns-Bratton-Trae Watkins ticket because “well over 100 known Lynchburg Democrats” managed to vote in the Republican event.
“The Republicans of Lynchburg, with the help of Democrats who participated in this primary, have given him one more chance,” Misjuns said of Taylor in his statement. “But they have spoken loud and clear that they want the policy results promised by our campaign — to defend taxpayers, deliver safer streets, ensure accountability, and put the taxpayers of Lynchburg first.”
More broadly, the Lynchburg results seem to be of a piece with other, more formal, Republican primaries around the country, where the most conservative candidates have won (such as recent Senate primaries in Louisiana and Texas). The only difference here is that President Donald Trump was not involved in making endorsements; the issues here were purely local ones in Lynchburg. Four years ago, Stephanie Reed led the balloting in the November general election and went on to be chosen mayor; this time, she didn’t even finish in the top four in a party nominating event. Could she still win a citywide election in Lynchburg? We won’t get to find out.
The Republican nominating event sets the stage for a fall council race that, whichever way it goes, will change the dynamics on the Lynchburg City Council.
Even though Republicans made just one change to their at-large ticket from four years ago — ousting Reed in favor of Bratton — that one change could made a big difference in city hall. If the three Republicans — Bratton, Misjuns and Taylor — win, that could give a majority on the council to a more conservative group of Republicans (Bratton, Misjuns and current incumbents Curt Diemer and Jacqueline Timmer, who aren’t up for reelection) who are inclined to be more critical of the city administration. That creates an issue for the general election: Should the city administration stay or should it be changed?
If the three Democrats — Christina Delzingaro, Dave Henderson and Nat Marshall — win, then that could turn a 6-1 Republican majority on council into a 4-3 Democratic majority.
If there’s a split ticket in the fall, well, who knows?
The Republican ticket begins with one advantage: Lynchburg’s Republican leanings and the fact that the council elections coincide with a congressional election. Two years ago, Republican John McGuire took 54% of the vote in Lynchburg for the 5th District seat, although this time he will likely face a stronger opponent, likely in the form of former Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello.
The Democratic ticket will likely look for help from Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., who is up for reelection and won Lynchburg six years ago with 51.8% of the vote. Even before they knew who the Republican candidates would be, Lynchburg Democrats had focused on the infighting among Republican council members, declaring they would “make city council boring again.” They will surely focus on Misjuns and blame many of the council controversies on him; Republicans have already begun to tie Democrats to any unpopular Democratic figures they can find (and given Lynchburg’s Republican voting history, just about any Democrat will do as a target). And then, of course, there’s the basic question of which direction Lynchburg voters want the city to go. Are they supportive of the city administration or are they more critical? We’ll see in November.
One aspect to Saturday’s nominating process is that it was not a state-run primary but a party-run process. This marks the first time under a recent state law governing party nominations that a party has found a way to avoid a state-run primary for a general election nomination (the law allows parties to design their own process for special elections, when time is a factor).
Republicans have long chafed at that law, often called “Helmer’s Law” after the sponsor, Del. Dan Helmer, D-Fairfax County. That law comes close to requiring a state-run primary and spells out certain requirements parties have to meet if they want something else. For now, Lynchburg Republicans appear to have found a way to do that “something else.” I say “for now” because Helmer has asked Attorney General Jay Jones for a formal opinion on whether the Lynchburg Republican process complies with the law. Jones has yet to deliver that opinion. Even if he produces one, his opinion alone may not matter unless it’s accompanied by some legal action. Did the voting process on Saturday produce anything that Jones might find actionable? We’ll see. At least one prospective voter posted on social media that she was unable to cast a ballot because she’s disabled and couldn’t stand in the line; in a state-run primary, she could have had an election official come to her car to take her vote through “curbside voting.”
Another difference: The party only announced vote totals for the three winners, not all 10 candidates who were on the ballot.
For now, here are some numbers to help put Saturday’s event in context.
About 1,600 people voted. The Lynchburg Republican City Committee said that was five times as many people as participated in its nominating process four years ago.
While that’s a large number for a firehouse primary, as this event was called, it’s small compared to the number of people who vote in an actual state-run primary.
In 2024, when Virginia Republicans held a statewide primary to pick a U.S. Senate candidate, there were 4,745 voters in Lynchburg. Earlier that year, Lynchburg saw 5,140 people cast ballots in the Republican presidential primary.
The approximately 1,600 people who took part Saturday to nominate candidates for three at-large seats was also smaller than the 2,051 voters who took part in a Republican primary in 2024 for a single ward — the Republican nomination for Ward 4. (Of note: Republicans allege that some Democrats cast votes in that primary. Virginia doesn’t register voters by party so there’s nothing to stop that, which is one reason Lynchburg Republicans have been eager to find a way around a state-run primary and create a system where they can screen prospective voters.)
One of the main legal points of Helmer’s Law is that if parties don’t use a state-run primary, they must still find a way to accommodate certain groups of absentee voters, such as military personnel.
In that 2024 Republican presidential primary, there were 355 Republicans in Lynchburg who voted by mail and officially counted as absentee. In the 2024 Republican Senate primary, there were 339 Republicans in Lynchburg who voted that way. On Saturday, the number of absentee ballots was put at “two dozen or less.”
Saturday also saw more ballots listed as “provisional” until the party had a chance to review them than astate-run primaries in Lynchburg usually have. In the 2024 Republican Senate primary, Lynchburg had 14 provisional ballots. On Saturday, there were 119, with 28 of them being rejected. Those 28 votes, though, were not enough to change any outcomes.
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