We need rain. We’ve been over this a few times. But it’s also Memorial Day weekend, when cookouts and water sports kick off the summer season, culturally.
It appears the needs of drought-easing rainfall and the wants of three-day weekend outdoor fun are on a collision course this weekend.
The philosophical and theological implications of the farmer praying for rain for his dry soil versus the bride down the road begging the heavens not to rain on her outdoor wedding can be a fascinating discourse, but just suffice it to say that there might be some time for both desperately needed rainfall and some periods of outdoor fun on this weekend.
A cold front will slide through on this Wednesday evening, then stall not far south and flip and flop back and forth near us through the weekend.
Combined with some upper-level disturbances from the west and a renewed flow of moisture from warm seas to our south and southeast in the Atlantic basin, a multi-day period of frequent showers and scattered thunderstorms unlike anything we’ve seen in many months appears to be on tap through the Memorial Day weekend and into next week.
Break from record heat
Wednesday’s cold front, besides possibly spurring a few strong to severe storms amid fairly widespread showers, will also slap down this week’s summerlike heat.
In fact, by Friday, many locations may be stuck in the 60s after topping 90 on Monday and Tuesday. Cool high pressure from the northeast will wedge southward, with some moisture overrunning the cool dome for intermittent showers.
Monday brought a record May 18 daily high temperature to Danville at a scorching 95 degrees, tying records at Lynchburg with 93 degrees and Blacksburg at 88 degrees.
Lynchburg set another record high on Tuesday at 94 degrees, beating 93 from May 19 in 1962. Highs of 94 at Danville and Roanoke fell just short of May 19 records, 95 and 96, respectively, also set in 1962.
This week’s heat spike partly offset what had been an unusually cool start to May, following record to near-record heat in April. The first 15 days of May were the coolest in 29 years at Lynchburg and the fifth coolest of all time going back to 1917 at Danville.
Significant but not constant rain
It is difficult to project how much rain may occur as it will not be coming in a long, steady, continuous flow, but rather in spurts of showers and, on warmer days, thunderstorms that could be heavier in some places than others.
By that same token, this Memorial Day weekend won’t be a total washout at every location all the time in our Southwest and Southside Virginia coverage area of Cardinal News.
As reflected in the official National Weather Service forecast, your favorite television meteorologist’s five- or seven-day forecast, and whatever smartphone weather app you use, there are some pretty high probabilities of at least some rain each day through at least Tuesday of next week.
But there will almost certainly be periods of no rain and even sunshine between more frequent showers and thunderstorms, and a day or two of that may end up not being as soggy as it appears now.
As the time gets closer to each day, forecasts may hone in better on what may be some lesser-chance periods of showers and storms, and you may see blue sky and sunshine for a few hours on just about any day. A lot of it depends on how quickly the cool-air wedge erodes over the weekend.
So if you have outdoor fun scheduled this weekend, you might find some warm, sunny periods or, at least, less damp ones to enjoy life. Just keep an eye to the sky and a good online weather radar source to note what may be coming, and get off the water or the golf course or any open area if there is lightning nearby.
This is usually the song and dance for the next three months anyway, as even sunny, hot, relatively dry periods can cook up the occasional isolated thunderstorms, so it’s time to get back in the practice of living with that.
As for rain totals, it is reasonable to think as of now that most locations in our region will see 1 to 3 inches total over the next week, counting whatever falls on this Wednesday as this Cardinal Weather column posts, but there may in fact be some heavier amounts where thunderstorm downpours are particularly strong.
Drought and deluge
It may seem odd but flash flooding may even become a possibility if heavier downpours are realized in local areas. Prior dryness does not preclude rain falling faster than drainages can funnel it, and in some cases, can even cause harder-packed soils that increase runoff.
Current rainfall total estimates to end the drought in our region are around 10 inches for a single month, 17 to 20 inches over three months, or 27 to 30 inches over six months. So this coming rain isn’t going to end the drought, but could provide considerable temporary relief for agricultural interests, though it will take a lot more in weeks ahead to refill water tables and reservoirs.
If you’re on an area lake this Memorial Day weekend, you may well note low water levels and sandy shoals where you don’t normally see them. On top of existing drought, utilities released more water out of some reservoirs early this week to enhance power generation for usage spikes related to the heat wave we experienced.
So this gets us back to the central premise: We need rain.
As discussed last week, the shift to an El Niño or a warm-water pattern in the Pacific Ocean from its cold water opposite La Niña offers some distant promise of perhaps a wetter pattern later this year into spring of next year, but that has some iffy caveats that could leave us drier and, conversely, could well turn into too much of a good thing.
For now, frequent showery periods typical for May and June would be the most reasonable medicine to at least treat some of the symptoms of long-term drought.
Perhaps the stray digging low-pressure system scooping warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico/America and the western Atlantic or perhaps even a tropical system could rain on us more — but again, that could be too much of a good thing too fast.
Let’s just live in the tension this weekend that, yes, rain would be beneficial, but it might mess up some outdoor plans, though probably not all the time everywhere.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley.
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