The state’s most accurate pollster in 2025 released a survey Wednesday that should come with flashing red lights and blaring sirens for Virginia Democrats and Republicans alike.
The poll by State Navigate shows the “yes” side with a 5 percentage point lead of 50% to 45%, which is both outside the margin of error (good news for the “yes” side) but also close enough that a late campaign surge could flip the results (good news for the “no” side).
The poll also finds that Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s approval and disapproval rates are tied at 47%, giving her the lowest approval and highest disapproval rate for any early-term governor since such polling began in the early 1990s. Those results mirror those of a recent Washington Post-Schar School poll and help explain some recent developments in the campaign — with the “yes” side dropping Spanberger from their ads while the “no” side has launched ads that essentially say vote “no” to send a message to Spanberger.
While the April 21 special election on redistricting is drawing money and voters at a pace that rivals last year’s gubernatorial race, there’s been relatively little public polling — only four since the start of the year.
A Christopher Newport University poll in January showed “yes” leading, 51% to 43%.
A Roanoke College poll in early February found “no” ahead, 52% to 44%.
The Post-Schar School poll in late March had the race at 52% “yes” to 47% “no.”
The State Navigate poll of 50% “yes” to 45% “no” is roughly in line with that survey, but might also suggest some tightening of the race.
Significantly, the three polls that have “yes” ahead all show it with a majority of the vote, however slim. If accurate, that means for the “no” side to win, either some potential “yes” voters will need to change their minds or the “no” side will need a bigger-than-expected turnout that undermines the polling models about who will show up to vote.
That’s what the “no” side has been trying to do with a heavy emphasis on rural voters, who overwhelmingly vote Republican but also tend to have some of the lowest turnout rates. That’s how Glenn Youngkin was able to lead the Republican ticket in 2021 to a statewide sweep — turnout in Democratic localities stayed fairly normal but turnout in Republican localities surged, allowing the party to eke out a narrow win.
If you dig deep into the poll, there are some warning signs for both sides.
While there’s a clear partisan split on the proposed constitutional amendment, with Democrats pushing “yes” and Republicans backing “no,” some leading the “no” campaign hope that they can peel off 10% of Democrats who might be queasy about engaging in gerrymandering. The goal seems high. The Post-Schar School poll had 7% of Democrats voting “no”; State Navigate shows 5%. The “no” campaign may be overestimating the number of Democratic voters it can get.
However, the State Navigate poll suggests independents are a big problem for the “yes” side. State Navigate used a series of screening questions to try to identify “true” independents, and not just partisans who prefer to call themselves independents. Among those “true” independents, 56% are “no” while 32% are “yes,” according to State Navigate. This is significant because in last fall’s election, those “true” independents backed the Democrats by wide margins. The weakest Democrat with “true” independents in the final State Navigate poll last year was Jay Jones, who led by 9 percentage points in his race for attorney general. Now these “true” independents are backing the Republican position on redistricting by 24 percentage points, so that’s a swing of 33 percentage points with that particular group of voters.
The challenge for both sides is how to persuade those “true” independents if they’re not inclined to respond to a partisan-tinged message.
In the final days, those are the types of messages we’re likely to see. Typically, a governor would be one of the best assets for the governor’s party. However, Brandon Jarvis of Virginia Scope reported this week that there would be no more Spanberger appearances in ads for the “yes” side. “Whether this is due to the Governor’s frustration that her approval rating could be sandbagged by the divisive issue of Democratic gerrymandering, or if the Yes campaign felt that her support did more harm than good, we don’t know,” State Navigate writes in its analysis.
Meanwhile, the “no” side is now featuring Spanberger in some of its ads, with a narrator warning if the new map is adopted, “Spanberger and the Democrats can raise our taxes, grab our guns and give welfare to illegal aliens.” That’s not quite how redistricting works since Spanberger is in state government and the redistricting is about congressional seats, but it seems a potent combination of trigger phrases for some voters. The signoff: “Don’t let Spanberger and the liberals win.”
Her name wouldn’t get invoked like that if her approval ratings were higher. What’s notable in the State Navigate findings is not the level of her disapproval rating, but its intensity: While 47% disapprove of her job performance, 41% strongly disapprove, 6% somewhat disapprove. That is almost as intense as the disapproval of President Donald Trump — just a different set of voters.
State Navigate found, as have other pollsters, that Trump’s disapproval rate in Virginia is higher than his approval rate: 46% approve, 57% disapprove. Among those who disapprove, it’s 53% strongly disapprove, 4% somewhat disapprove.
Those on the “yes” side have regularly invoked Trump’s name as a reason to redraw congressional maps. Now the “no” side is starting to invoke Spanberger’s as a reason not to.
For more on Virginia politics . . .
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