For a ballot question with a simple “yes” or “no” choice, the special election on the constitutional amendment on redistricting sure has inspired a lot of questions. We asked readers to share their questions and promised to answer as many as we can. Our first batch contains a lot of questions that require a more analytical — some might say more speculative — answer than a simple factual one. There’s a reason why my columns are labeled “opinion.” Anyway, here we go.
1. Ballot language
How is it decided what is written on the ballot when you go to vote yes or no?
Emily Seawell, Amherst
The ballot language is written by the General Assembly — more practically, the majority in the General Assembly. The language on this ballot is particularly controversial. It reads:
“Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia’s standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census?”
Republicans contend that the use of the phrase “restore fairness” is quite unfair. A judge in Tazewell County agreed; that case is now on hold and won’t be decided by the Virginia Supreme Court until after the election. That gives me one of my periodic opportunities to remind people that the results of the election may not be final; the court could well invalidate the election on the grounds that it was improperly put before voters. For more on that legal reasoning, see my previous column on the case that justices are relying on.
A review by David M. Poole for Cardinal News found that of 45 previous ballot questions in Virginia, the language of 44 seemed absolutely neutral. The lone exception was a 1996 constitutional amendment that asked if the constitution should be amended so that “victims of crime shall be treated with fairness, dignity and respect.”
There is one difference: Those other amendments were part of larger elections. Here, the amendment is the only thing on the ballot. Just a practical question: Will anyone going in to vote be relying on the actual ballot language one way or another? Or will they already know how they intend to vote?
2. Future redistricting
How likely is it that the next census would generate interest in returning to a more balanced districting approach? … A “temporary redistricting effort” was how the 10-1 proposal was billed. Is there any precedent (anywhere) for a temporary gerrymander, meant to counteract perceived flaws in national policy, to later be replaced with a more balanced districting effort? Or would the next state Republican administration likely decide to redraw boundaries to that party’s advantage? In other words: Is the 10-1 redistricting effort (if it passes) likely to set off a chain reaction?
Lillian Trettin, Roanoke
That’s a lot of questions packed into one — all good ones, too.
Let’s start with the temporary nature of this proposed amendment. If approved, it would last until 2030. (More on that later.) I can’t say there’s never been a temporary constitutional amendment, but I’ve never heard of one. We do, though, have lots of ordinary laws that come with sunset clauses that cause them to expire at certain times.
Let’s assume the amendment passes and then expires in 2030. At that point, the current redistricting mechanism comes back into force. That method, which voters added to the state constitution in a 2020 referendum, requires a bipartisan commission to draw the lines. Note: Not a nonpartisan commission, but a bipartisan one, composed of equal members of each party. The only time that commission operated — in 2021 — it deadlocked along partisan lines, which then threw the line-drawing to the Virginia Supreme Court, which, under the rules, appointed two “special masters,” one from each party, to draw the lines. That’s where our current map comes from.
This requires looking ahead (hence the speculative part I mentioned), but unless there’s some miraculous epiphany on one side or the other, a bipartisan commission is almost always going to deadlock. I suspect, given what happened last time, both parties this time will be more determined than ever to make sure they don’t appoint any “wobbly” commission members who are tempted to compromise with the other side. That means the commission is probably just a fruitless exercise on the way back to the Virginia Supreme Court.
Now it’s my turn to ask a question: Will there be any interest in changing that existing constitutional provision before the next census? I’ve not heard of any, but legislators don’t confide everything in me, as much as I wish they would! Given our current politics, it would be more in the interest of Democrats than Republicans to change the rules on a more permanent basis. For that to happen, they’d need yet another constitutional amendment. Virginia requires an amendment be passed twice by the legislature, with an election in between, before it goes to voters, so one scenario would be for Democrats to pass this in 2027, when they have a legislative majority, then hope they win the 2027 legislative elections, and pass it again in 2028, so it’s on the ballot for the November 2028 presidential election. Given our political history for the past two decades, the Democratic candidate for president will likely carry Virginia in 2028, so that’s when Democrats would want a constitutional amendment on the ballot.
Again, I haven’t heard anyone lay out this scenario, but let’s look at what might happen if the “yes” side wins and Virginia does, indeed, elect 10 Democrats and one Republican this fall. How likely is it that they’d want to see the districts they were elected in reshaped by some court-appointed mapmakers who wouldn’t be paying attention to politics and might draw unfavorable lines for them? That’s a scenario I’ve heard Republicans warn about — that those members of Congress would then have a vested interest in wanting to make sure Democrats control the redistricting process to preserve their seats. The analogy involves a spoiler alert from “Lord of the Rings”: Even good-hearted Frodo was tempted by the power of the One Ring and didn’t want to part with it.
As for whether a 10-1 redistricting in Virginia would set off a chain reaction nationally, the best answer seems to be that Virginia is a reaction to what other states have already done to redraw their lines. We could flip this around: What would happen if Virginia voted “no”? Would that cause other states to stand down? That’s unknown — but Indiana Republicans voted “no,” but that didn’t cause Virginia Democrats to stand down, so my best guess is the process is already kind of out of control, and no single state can bring it to a halt. It would require both parties, across multiple states, to do that. I suspect we’d need a Democratic governor and a Republican governor to stand together and say, “No, this stops here.” However, there are internal pressures on all of them to redraw lines, so I’m not hopeful that will happen.
3. Consequences
What are the consequences for southwestern Virginia? Will we be ignored by Democrats even more if this redistricting moves forward? What are the long-term repercussions? If the referendum passes, is it possible Republicans could gerrymander districts in their favor after this? Is this going to further entrench partisan redistricting tug of war?
Katie Burke, Floyd
In some ways, Southwest Virginia has nothing at stake. Under a 10-1 map, that one Republican district is the 9th District in Southwest Virginia, now represented by Rep. Morgan Griffith, R-Salem, so Southwest Virginia will stay in a Republican-dominated district regardless. Why did Democratic mapmakers leave that one? Because there’s no way to draw a Democratic district in that part of the state. This is a political challenge for Republicans in the special election; they need to find some way to motivate their voters in Southwest Virginia who wouldn’t see any direct impact, but I digress.
I’m reluctant to answer the question about whether Democrats would continue to ignore the region — that assumes they are now, although the numbers speak for themselves: Because Southwest Virginia is so heavily Republican (80% Republican or more in many counties), there’s no practical reason for Democrats to devote much attention there in a campaign. Whether they pay sufficient attention once in office, well, I’ll leave that to readers to decide.
As to whether passage of this amendment would later inspire Republican gerrymandering — it wouldn’t in Virginia, because, as noted above, this amendment would expire in 2030, at which point we’d revert to the current system. For Republicans to be able to gerrymander the state, they’d need to a) repeal the current constitutional rules and b) win control of state government to control redistricting. The latter is possible, but I seriously doubt whether Republicans have any interest in repealing the current constitutional provisions on redistricting. They certainly don’t in this special election, and given the state’s blue-tinged politics, they’d be wiser to hedge their bets and stick with the current system rather than gamble on controlling the process again.
4. Increasing size of U.S. House
Could this referendum be the first step to a federal constitutional amendment to increase the number of Congressional districts by linking the number of districts to a more logical population number? Chuck Todd in his podcast has suggested . . . essentially increasing the number of Congressional districts from 435 to about 1,000. As a Montgomery County resident I have little in common with residents of Lee and Wise and equally as little to residents of the Shenandoah Valley.
Patrick Johnson, Riner
I love this question! In the first Congress, each House member represented about 30,000 people. Now, a congressional district holds about 800,000 people. There’s an argument to be made that what we need is bigger government — so that each House member represents a smaller number of people. This is a great idea to chat up on a podcast, or in a column, but the chances of it happening are the same as me looking out my window and seeing a unicorn prancing through the woods.
The Hill published a fascinating opinion piece on this subject earlier this week. It pointed out that the size of the U.S. House regularly expanded with population until the 1920s, when the Reapportionment Act of 1929 capped the figure at 435. That writer argues that the law may be unconstitutional. “Yes, a larger House would be messier,” he writes. “But the House was designed to be messy. The founders feared concentrated power more than they feared inefficiency. Madison warned that a House too small would serve ‘a few of the opulent.’” He points out that as districts become more populous, campaigns become more expensive, so more districts with fewer people would reduce the impact of money in politics. I’m skeptical that anything can do that, but if we go back to the original math of one representative for every 30,000 people, then Virginia would have 299 congressional districts. Montgomery County, where this reader lives, would have 3.3 representatives at the U.S. Capitol. If we embraced Todd’s call for 1,000 House members, Virginia would have 25 members instead of 11, so imagine splitting each congressional district into two (and then some).
5. Texas
Do you really think Texas redrew their lines based on “Communities of Interest”? This is a four-year, very temporary solution to a huge national problem.
Bill Mosley, Bedford
Of course not. This all started when President Donald Trump urged Texas Republicans to redraw their lines, and they happily complied.
This is quite unprecedented*, but the math questions how big a problem this national tit-for-tat redistricting really is. Texas redrew its lines to pick up five additional Republican seats, but then California redrew its lines to pick up five additional Democratic seats — a wash. That’s why I don’t think citing Texas is a good argument for the “yes” side in Virginia. Mathematically, this is no longer about Texas; it’s about some other state that’s just less provocative to cite. The New York Times has a redistricting site that’s tracking all the changes and computing the partisan advantage. Its current math: Between Texas, California, North Carolina, Missouri and Utah, Republicans have squeezed out an advantage of two to three additional seats.
Three additional states — Virginia, Florida and Maryland — may or may not redraw their lines. If they all do, then when you factor those in, the national bottom line moves to somewhere between a Democratic gain of one seat and a Republican gain of four seats, depending on how some of those districts break.
The question is whether these redistricting changes really are huge. As a matter of principle, they are. As a matter of practice, well, you can decide. The current party mix in the House is 217 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent and three vacancies. In a close national election, a few seats make a huge difference. In a blowout, they don’t. Here’s one way to look at this: Do we think the results in the midterms will be close or not? If they are, then every seat matters. If they’re not, well, maybe all this is just noise.
What does history tell us? Midterm elections typically go against the party in power — that’s why Trump is so concerned. Midterms do tend to produce big shifts. Over the past five midterms, the typical loss for the president’s party has been 31 seats. The smallest loss was nine seats (for Democrats in 2022); the biggest was 63 (for Democrats in 2010). In the midterms during Trump’s first term, Republicans lost 40 seats. I understand why both parties want to scrap for every seat available — they should, because things might be close, but it’s entirely possible that even if Republicans maximize their seats through redistricting, a November election might still deliver a crushing defeat.
Philosophically, part of what’s at issue is whether congressional districts should be based on “communities of interest” or political factors. Another is, what do “communities of interest” mean today? Perhaps in a digital age, communities of interest aren’t so geographical anymore, and maybe that rare Democrat in Deerfield, in the western claw of the “lobster district,” has more of a community of interest with a fellow Democrat in Arlington than with the Republican who lives down the road. I looked at some of those factors in a previous column, which is what that reader is responding to.
As for that asterisk, it’s unprecedented to have a president urge his party to redraw seats mid-cycle, and unprecedented to have this kind of national seat-grab by both parties. However, we have seen individual seats redraw lines before mid-cycle. Texas did so in 2003, in time for the 2004 elections. The U.S. Supreme Court later ruled states could draw lines however often they wished.
6. Community of interest
One observation about “community”… How do the state law definitions about community square with how individual census tracts are divided up for or against purposes other than political boundaries? Census tract divisions being much smaller but related more to areas like subdivisions within other boundaries within a local jurisdiction, a city, town or county, usually, or sometimes districts within a city. I’m too, not sure how or if the census tracts become rearranged when, say, a major highway interrupts a path through a neighborhood, dead-ending streets. Maybe my question is dealing with something too small to be considered within the parameters of a congressional district, but small census tracts do combine to make up the whole. Thanks for considering census tracts as another piece of the puzzle.
Mike Grant, Chesapeake
Ah, now we’re deep into the details. I love it! For those who want to follow along, this will require remembering what you were taught in high school chemistry about the parts of an atom, and then how those atoms form molecules.
The redistricting maps are based on precincts (or, in some cases, parts of precincts). Those precincts are drawn at the local level. The state’s main guidance on those concerns how big (no more than 5,000 voters) or how small (no fewer than 100 voters in a county or 500 in a city) they should be. Because precincts don’t elect anyone, they are generally drawn for practical reasons and therefore often respect certain natural or man-made boundaries, such as roads.
Since the congressional lines are based on census tracts, that means at the sub-atomic level, the congressional lines may respect certain natural boundaries, even if at the level of the entire district, they may not. Case in point: The proposed map splits the town of Christiansburg between the 6th District and the 9th District (which critics think doesn’t make any sense), but the boundary between those two districts is North Franklin Street, a major thoroughfare through the town. The big picture may not respect natural lines, but the close-up version does (although some might think the map would respect natural lines more if it didn’t split Christiansburg at all). I’ll look more closely at the borders of the proposed districts in a future column.
Census tracts are small geographic areas drawn by the U.S. Census Bureau for statistical purposes. Virginia has 1,907 of them. In Chesapeake, where this reader is from, there are 15 census tracts but 50 voting precincts. There’s not a direct relationship between census tract lines and precinct lines, but some localities may follow census tracts in drawing precincts.
As for the rest of the reader’s question, the Census Bureau does sometimes change census tracts, so the construction of a major highway might, indeed, serve as a reason for the bureau to split one into two parts. In all the cases I’m familiar with, though, tracts don’t change willy-nilly, because they are used for long-term statistical purposes. If a tract is split into two for some reason, you can just add those two together for statistical purposes.
7. Mail ballots
I live in Pulaski County and am a registered mail-in voter. As of Friday, March 20, we have yet to receive our mail-in ballots. What gives, or is that a vote delay tactic by the local electoral board?
Jose Simon, Hiawassee
I can assure readers there’s no manipulation by any electoral board. I asked the Pulaski County registrar about the mail ballots. Here’s what Leann Phillips told me: “For people on the Permanent Absentee Mailing List, their ballots are required to be sent out by the Friday we begin early voting (March 6th). After that, any absentee ballot application we receive must be processed within three days, however, our office always tries to get them out the same day the application is received.” She said she found Simon’s lack of a ballot “quite concerning” and promised to get in touch with him.
Early morning update: Overnight, the reader contacted me to say that the registar had, indeed, contacted him. It turns out, he says, that the post office misdelivered the ballot (and other mail) to a vacant address in his neighborhood. His situation has been resolved but he uses the occasion to ask about the U.S. Supreme Court case where it appears the court is poised to rule that mail ballots received after Election Day shouldn’t count: 14 states allow this, including Virginia. He asks why his ballot should be in jeopoardy if he did everything right but the Postal Service messed up. Another reader, in response to my previous column on mail ballots, points out that the Postal Service postmarks mail when it hits a processing center, not when it hits your local post office, which means there could be a delay. You could put the ballot in the box in time and still have it postmarked after Election Day. That means those voting by mail should be extra-careful as Election Day nears.
For those who vote by mail, the Department of Elections has a website where you can track the delivery of your ballot. It’s here. In last fall’s governor’s race, 320,667 voters cast ballots by mail — 9.3%. Another 29,794 ballots were counted as “post-election” — 0.8% of the total ballots, so a minuscule number. These are typically mail ballots that are postmarked before the deadline on Election Day but don’t arrive until after the election; Virginia allows this up to noon on the Friday after the election. Republicans often object to this, but the theory is much the same as with your tax return: The Internal Revenue Service doesn’t require your return to be in hand by April 15, just that it be postmarked by then.
I personally don’t trust mail ballots; not for security reasons, but because they rely on speedy delivery by the post office, and I’ve had too many bad experiences with mail getting stuck somewhere in the system.
8. Why?
For years census and redistricting only happened once a decade. Why now?
Lee Barlow, Roanoke County
This is an easy one: We live in more partisan times. The specific instigator here was Trump, when he urged Texas Republicans to create more Republican seats. That set off this nationwide scramble. This is all quite unprecedented. Virginia Democrats blame Texas Republicans for starting this midcycle redistricting. Virginia Republicans blame Virginia Democrats for continuing it. Voters can decide April 21 who’s right.
Got more questions? Let us know.
Want to see the proposed map and learn more about the process? See our Voter Guide.
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