One spring day about 66 million years ago, some dinosaurs probably looked up at the sky and, if their walnut-sized brains could process what their eyes saw, they might have wondered why there was a bright light streaking across the sky.
They sure didn’t understand the consequences, though.
Today, the mammalian species that took dinosaurs’ place as the apex predator on the planet — us — is figuratively in the same place they were, except we’re looking at our computer screens and probably not fully comprehending what we’re seeing headed our way, either.
A recent report that a Charlotte, North Carolina-based research firm conducted for the Virginia Chamber Foundation attempted to quantify how the work landscape is going to change over the coming years. The short version: Artificial intelligence isn’t going to change everything, but it’s going to change a lot.
The report says as many as 35% of the jobs in Virginia “could be impacted in some way” by artificial intelligence, with Virginia among the top states “exposed” or “highly exposed” to whatever havoc (or some might say innovation) that artificial intelligence wreaks in the workplace.
“Impacted in some way” is not the same thing as saying 35% of the jobs will be eliminated, but it does suggest that big changes are on the way, and Virginia will be “impacted in some way” more than most. The study says “Virginia is projected to be among the top 5-10 states in the number of jobs ‘exposed’ or ‘highly exposed’ to impacts of AI.”
Make no mistake, though, AI will eliminate some jobs, and this report says a disproportionate number of those will be what used to be entry-level jobs for younger workers, which will make it harder for them to enter the job market.
That’s not necessarily new information — just go into a fast-food restaurant these days and see how many times you’re ordering from a computer screen and not a cashier behind the counter — but what is new are the specific estimates for Virginia.
There are lots of people who ought to be reading this report, from Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s economic development team to members of the General Assembly. For those for whom this 127-page report falls into the TL;DR category (that’s “too long/didn’t read” in internet slang), here are the highlights.
AI’s impacts will be uneven across the workplace
Some jobs won’t be touched by AI at all, the report says. Stonemasons are safe. So are motorcycle mechanics. Anyone who operates agricultural machinery. Anyone lucky enough (or fast enough or big enough or skilled enough) to be a professional athlete.
Those feeling the most impact will be at opposite ends of the income and educational scale. Software developers — often highly educated and well-paid — are on the list of occupations with the greatest exposure, the report says. (Irony: AI is software, so this feels like Dr. Frankenstein’s monster turning on its creator.) In Virginia, they account for 72,700 jobs, more than any other in the state. That will have some geographic implications, but just hold your horses, as we used to say on the farm. Office clerks, retail salespeople and customer service reps come in Nos. 3, 4 and 5 on the list. Throw in cashiers and receptionists, further down on the list, and those jobs number more than twice the number of software developers at risk.
In Virginia, the region most exposed to AI is Northern Virginia
If we look at the state through the prism of industry, Northern Virginia is the most exposed to AI. The industry with the most jobs at risk is government, and the federal government is obviously a dominant industry in Northern Virginia, even after President Donald Trump’s downsizing.
If we look at the state through the prism of types of jobs, Northern Virginia again rises to the top. It’s a tech capital and once again has the most jobs exposed, as well as the highest share of jobs. (All those software jobs that showed up in the previous chart.)
This report shows this regional risk in several ways. Here’s a chart from the U.S. Treasury Department; the darker the region, the higher the share of jobs that are going to be impacted in some way.
Now let’s move on to some other charts (I do love charts). For economic development purposes, Virginia is divided into nine regions for the GO Virginia program. To get oriented, here’s a map of those regions.
Here, we can see the sheer volume of AI-impacted jobs in Northern Virginia (Region 7) — 37.5% of all the AI-exposed jobs in the state.
Here’s another way to visualize the same data: by the share of jobs in each region. Once again, we see Northern Virginia has the most at risk, with 39.0% of the jobs there facing some kind of exposure. The region with the least at risk is Southside (Region 3), but even there, 29.1% of the jobs have some kind of exposure.
You’ve probably gotten the point by now, but there’s one fascinating little detail that should get mentioned: “A U.S. Treasury study that looked at AI occupational impacts by micro areas found that north Arlington County had the 3rd highest share of jobs exposed to [artificial intelligence] in the nation.”
For anyone wondering why a publication devoted to Southwest and Southside is writing so much here about something affecting Northern Virginia, here’s my customary reminder: We are economically dependent on Northern Virginia. That’s the state’s economic engine; it accounts for about 42% of the state’s general fund revenue. Rural school systems get more than half their funding from the state government, but 42% of that funding is money from Northern Virginia. Anything that changes the economy in Northern Virginia is going to have an impact on Southwest and Southside. Unless you like the idea of your schools (and other state services) losing funding, and your local government raising taxes to make up the difference, then we need to pay close attention to the Northern Virginia economy. The famous quote from the late Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau about what it was like to live next to the United States applies: “Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt.”
This technological revolution will hit urban areas more than rural ones
I found this to be an intriguing observation: “Research indicates that the deployment of AI tools may have a disproportionate impact on occupations and industries concentrated in large cities and metropolitan regions. … This trend contrasts with earlier technological revolutions that primarily increased productivity in manual and physical occupations — changes that tended to have a greater effect on rural labor markets.”
Rural areas are easy (too easy!) to ignore, but when these technological shifts are concentrated in urban areas, what’s going to happen?
Young workers are the most at risk
This can happen two ways, the report says. First, many entry-level jobs might get eliminated. “Since younger people are more likely to be employed in certain types of positions, some occupations like retail salespersons and cashiers have higher numbers of exposed jobs in the young career scenario,” the report says. That seems to be happening anyway. The kiosks at McDonald’s aren’t really AI, but they’re eliminating jobs that teenagers might have otherwise had.
AI is eliminating higher-skilled jobs, too — but it’s young workers who are losing out. The report included this chart of computer-related occupations. From the time that AI tools such as ChatGPT started getting introduced in 2022, there’s been a clear decline in the number of workers 22-25. Other age groups haven’t seen that decline, but that age group has.
“The reduction in early-career employment has been most pronounced for occupations with the highest AI exposure scores,” the report says. “This research suggests that primarily younger workers are experiencing job impacts due to AI.” The report goes on to warn: “Many young people took on college debt to be trained for positions in software development, nursing, and business operations. If AI exposure in these jobs does lead to fewer job opportunities, then these young workers will have a difficult time repositioning their careers and developing economic security.”
In all, the report says 481,000 “early career” jobs in Virginia might be at risk.
If you’re curious to see how all that plays out on a regional level, here’s yet another chart:
How should we prepare for all this? Sounds like “choose your occupation wisely.”
Not very happy about that minus number for writers.
No artificial intelligence was used in the preparation of this column. I read the report with my own eyes and typed this column with my own fingers, the way Mrs. Smith taught me back in my high school typing class in Rockingham County. I also type out a weekly political newsletter, West of the Capital, that goes out on Friday afternoons. You can sign up for that or any of our other newsletters here. Or maybe you can have your AI assistant do it for you: