As the Virginia General Assembly considers expanding collective bargaining statewide, we do not have to guess what the impact could be. We can look at what has already happened in the city of Richmond.
In 2022, Richmond adopted collective bargaining with the promise of fairness and modernization. What followed was a massive financial commitment that is now reshaping the city’s budget.
City officials have projected roughly $349.8 million in additional personnel costs over the life of the agreements. That includes negotiated pay increases, market adjustments, step increases and the administrative costs required to manage the bargaining process.
That number is not a political talking point. It comes from Richmond’s own projections. And for any locality, committing nearly $350 million in long-term labor obligations is more than significant.
When labor costs rise that quickly, local governments only have a few options. Raise taxes. Raise fees. Cut services. Or push the burden into future budgets.
Richmond has already had to shift funding from other priorities and increase certain utility rates to keep up. Financial pressure has also shown up in Richmond Public Schools, where compensation commitments have contributed to substantial budget gaps that required difficult conversations about services and staffing.
This is not an attack on public employees. Our teachers, police officers, firefighters and public servants work hard and deserve fair pay. The question is not whether they should be compensated well. The question is who ultimately controls the budget and how much flexibility local leaders retain? And who pays to make up the difference when the budget falls short?
Once compensation structures are locked into binding agreements, elected officials lose flexibility during downturns. In strong economic years that may be manageable. In weaker years it can quickly become a fiscal crisis.
Richmond at least has a large urban tax base. Many counties and small towns across Southwest and Southside Virginia do not. Rural localities operate on tight margins. A plant closure or economic slowdown can destabilize an entire budget. If those same communities are locked into multiyear pay escalators or face arbitration exposure, the choices become even narrower.
Unlike Washington, our local governments cannot print money. They must balance their budgets every year. Every dollar committed in a binding agreement is a dollar that cannot be redirected to infrastructure, public safety needs or tax relief if needed. Virginia has long preserved local governments’ authority over budgeting decisions.
Expanding collective bargaining statewide will fundamentally change that balance. It would shift leverage away from taxpayers and toward contractual mandates that are difficult to unwind. Ultimately many of these localities will be left with little to know choice but to raise real estate taxes on property owners to pay for this new law.
For everyday hardworking Virginians, there is nothing affordable about mandates like this.
Eric Phillips is a member of the House of Delegates. He is a Republican from Henry County.