Proposed districts would be more economically diverse than the current ones. Is that good or bad?

I write these words from the right claw of the lobster.

Not the underwater crustacean type of lobster, but the Virginia redistricting type of lobster.

The Democrats’ proposed map of new congressional districts, intended to net the party more seats in November, contains many weirdly shaped districts because that’s how you take a state with a small Democratic majority in the electorate and turn it into one with a large Democratic majority in the congressional delegation.

While the word “gerrymander” comes from a 19th-century redistricting under Massachusetts Gov. Elbridge Gerry that looked like a salamander, many of the shapes on Virginia’s proposed map defy biological description. One, though, looks almost exactly like a lobster: the proposed 7th District. Some online commenters have thought it also looked like a frog or a scorpion, but the internet seems to have decided it’s a lobster, and, as we all know, the internet is never wrong. In casual conversations, some pols are now referring to the 7^th simply as “the lobster district.”

The body of the lobster district is in the northern Piedmont, with its tail extending to Arlington County, and then there are the two big claws, one that reaches down to Goochland and Powhatan counties west of Richmond, another that reaches into the Shenandoah Valley to parts of Rockingham and Augusta counties.

The lobster district is noteworthy because it includes a Republican incumbent — John McGuire of Goochland — but deprives him of 87.9% of his former constituents. Instead, the lobster district is intended to be a Democratic one — a rare blue lobster! Geographically, it has a lot of rural territory. Demographically, the population is mostly in that skinny tail through Democratic-voting Northern Virginia — 56.67%, according to calculations by the Virginia Public Access Project. That’s also where virtually all the Democratic precincts are. In this case, the tail doesn’t wag the dog; it wags the lobster.

The lobster district is unusual in other ways: Its distinctive shape incorporates some extremes of both geography and culture — from the Metro stops of Arlington to the dirt roads around Deerfield. I’ve been spending time lately in the Shenandoah Valley taking care of an ill relative, which has given me the opportunity to ponder the oddity of potentially being in a Northern Virginia-dominated district as I drive down the farm roads west of the Blue Ridge.

This gerrymander works by “burying” strongly Republican areas in districts with Democratic majorities, so we shouldn’t be surprised to see the Craigsville precinct in Augusta County (87.6% for Donald Trump in 2024) appended to a district where it’s outvoted by the much larger Arlington precinct 129 (82.1% for Kamala Harris).

In what other ways are the parts of some of these districts wildly dissimilar? The easiest to measure is income. First, let’s look at the high end and low end of the current districts, as measured by median household income:

1^st: Poquoson ($120,919) to Essex County ($56,481). Variation: $64,438
2^nd: Chesapeake ($94,189) to Northampton County ($55,933). Variation: $38,256
3^rd: Chesapeake ($94,189) to Portsmouth ($58,972). Variation: $35,217
4^th: Chesterfield County ($98,910) to Emporia ($49,375). Variation: $49,535
5^th: Goochland County ($118,695) to Danville ($42,778). Variation: $75,917
6^th: Clarke County ($114,185) to Covington ($42,724). Variation: $71,461
7^th: Prince William County ($128,873) to Madison County ($82,972). Variation: $45,901
8^th: Falls Church ($154,734) to Alexandria ($113,638). Variation: $41,096
9^th: Roanoke County ($82,931) to Norton ($38,497). Variation: $44,434
10^th: Loudoun County ($178,707) to Manassas Park ($100,668). Variation: $78,039
11^th: Fairfax County ($150,113) to Fairfax city ($132,774). Variation: $17,339

We see that, currently, Rep. James Walkinshaw, D-Fairfax County, in the 11^th has the most homogenous district, income-wise, while Rep. John McGuire, R-Goochland County, in the 5^th has the most income inequality. The average variation is $47,895 between the most and least affluent localities in each district.

Now, let’s look at the proposed districts:

1^st. Fairfax County ($150,113) to King William County. ($85,212). Variation: $64,901
2^nd: Chesapeake ($94,189) to Northampton County ($55,933). Variation: $38,256
3^rd: Poquoson ($120,919) to Portsmouth ($58,972). Variation: $61,947
4^th: James City County ($107,046) to Danville ($42,778). Variation: $64,268
5^th: Chesterfield County ($98,910) to Charlotte County ($48,892). Variation: $50,018
6^th: Albemarle County ($102,617) to Roanoke ($52,671). Variation: $49,946
7^th: Falls Church ($154,734) to Cumberland County ($57,057) Variation: $97,677
8^th: Fairfax County ($150,113) to Essex County ($56,481). Variation: $93,632
9^th: Roanoke County ($82,931) to Norton ($38,497). Variation: $44,434
10^th: Loudoun County ($178,707) to Winchester ($64,648). Variation: $114,059
11^th: Fairfax County ($150,113) to Page County ($59,396). Variation: $90,717

What we see here is that with redistricting, the income inequality increased in seven of the 11 districts, remained the same in two, and decreased in two others. Overall, the income inequality between the most and least affluent localities in each district increased from $47,895 to $69,986.

What’s that mean? It means that redistricting would make most districts more dissimilar. Now, you can argue that perhaps that’s a good thing, that it’s good for members of Congress to have to represent more diverse districts — although income isn’t how we typically think of diversity. The argument on the other side is that this makes it more difficult for House members to represent their districts because people of different income brackets might, just might, have different ways of looking at the world.

Think of Walkinshaw, who currently has a district where the difference between the most affluent and the least affluent localities is only $17,339 — and they all have a median household income of more than $100,000. His new district (assuming he’s reelected) would have an income variance of $90,717. I daresay the people of Page County might have quite a different view of the world than Walkinshaw’s current constituents in Fairfax — not just politically, but economically, which often helps inform politics.

Of course, this map wasn’t designed to benefit the voters in Page. It was designed to benefit Democrats, who are generally in Northern Virginia in many of these districts. Still, I’m curious what kind of pressures Virginia’s House members would face under these proposed districts.

Every politician likely hears from constituents who have opposing views. Republican Morgan Griffith, who represents Virginia’s coal country and proudly calls himself a champion of coal, no doubt hears from Southwest Virginians who think coal is bad for the environment. Election results just show there aren’t enough of them. Likewise, I’m sure the Democrats elected from these new Northern Virginia-based districts will happily ignore their new rural constituents who have conservative views on social issues such as abortion and guns.

The interesting part will come when they hear from those rural constituents on less ideological matters.

The representatives from the five districts snaking out of Northern Virginia will all have some agribusiness presence in their districts. That lobster district will take in part of Virginia’s number one and number three dairy counties and the number one and number two poultry counties.

If Democrats win a majority in the House, you can make the case that the ag industry (and other interests) in these counties will be well-off because they’ll be represented by the majority party. (Of course, they’re represented by the majority party now, just a different party.) The other way to look at this is that none of these rural counties are going to get much attention from representatives based in Northern Virginia. Yet a third way is that those Northern Virginia reps may get distracted from the concerns of their suburban constituents to deal with some noisy rural constituents (assuming they get noisy). Time spent on securing Metro funding may have to give way to some time spent on milk price supports. By creating districts with such dissimilar interests, mapmakers have drawn maps with more internal stresses than before. The real challenge will come if some of these districts have interests within them that are diametrically opposed.

Here are some potential ones: Should transportation funding be weighted toward mass transit (which would benefit Northern Virginia) or highways (which would benefit the Shenandoah Valley portions of those districts that have Interstate 81 running through them). The so-called “university district” of the new 6th would include both the University of Virginia and Virginia Tech. Would there ever be instances, such as grant applications, where they would be competitors? If so, how would a future representative from the 6th District resolve that conflict?

Some look at the lobster district and see a cartographical outrage. Others look at it and see a creature of partisan beauty.

I look at it and see a fascinating civic experiment. 

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