Virtually all of Virginia outside Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads now sees more people moving in than moving out

Want more on Virginia’s population trends? We’ve collected all our demographic coverage in one place.

The most remarkable story in Virginia right now is playing out in Danville and, to a lesser extent, across neighboring parts of Southside. A city given up for dead a quarter-century ago is now becoming one of Virginia’s strongest population magnets.

Last year’s annual population estimates from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia showed that Danville, which had been shrinking since 1990, had now gained population, however modestly. The latest population estimates now show that, in raw numbers, population growth increased by sixfold in just a year’s time. 

From 2020 to 2024, Danville’s population increase was put at 110. Now, from 2020 to 2025, it’s put at 614.

That number, though, masks the true magnitude of what’s happening in Danville.

These estimates calculate that from 2020 to 2025, Danville saw 2,261 more people move in than move out. For context, that’s more people than moved into many bigger cities, on a net-migration basis. 

Lynchburg saw a net migration of 2,006 people in that time. Roanoke, 988. (More on Roanoke’s figures later.) Danville’s net gain of 2,261 is more than all but three other cities in Virginia: Richmond at 10,893, Suffolk at 8,835 and Chesapeake at 3,570 — and remember those last two cities are geographically huge because years ago they absorbed their neighboring counties.

The only reason Danville’s population growth wasn’t higher is that it’s still an aging city, and deaths outnumbered births by 1,647.

Danville stands out in a big way, but what’s happening there is now happening across all of the southern part of Virginia: More people are now moving in than out. However, in Wednesday’s report on the latest population estimates, we published this chart of overall population gains and losses. You’ll see that much of Southside and almost all of Southwest Virginia remain in the population-losing category. The numbers for each locality so the percentage of population growth (or loss) from 2020 to 2025.

What you don’t see in that chart is how each locality is gaining or losing population, so here are two more. The first shows where births outnumber deaths, or vice versa:

And this chart shows where people moving in outnumber those moving out, or the other way around:

This is the most important one for our purposes today, because it shows that rural Virginia is now in a very different position than it once was. In all but four rural counties — Buchanan, Dickenson, Henry and Wise — there are now more people moving in than moving out. For generations, rural communities have lamented a “brain drain” as young adults move away. These numbers don’t shed light on who is moving in and out (these could be retirees moving in, for instance), but they do show that rural Virginia, aside from those four counties, is now attracting new residents. If you want to call this a “rural renaissance,” the numbers are there to support that claim. The deaths-over-births numbers can’t be helped (with aging populations, don’t expect a baby boom in these places), but new residents are “voting with their feet” to move in, so that seems a big endorsement for these localities. If enough of these new residents are of child-bearing age, perhaps someday there will be a modest baby boom in these communities. 

The counties that are losing population may still be losing population due to the high ratio of deaths to births, they’re just not losing as much population as they once were. The moving van is helping to make up for the hearse. Virginia’s net out-migration problem is no longer rural Virginia, it’s Fairfax County — and, to a lesser extent, Alexandria and the cities of Hampton Roads.

Fairfax’s overall losses are small (2,795 since 2020), although any population losses in the state’s biggest county demand attention because Fairfax is a county that hasn’t lost population since Andrew Jackson was president. The important thing is how Fairfax is losing population: It’s through people moving out. From 2020 to 2025, Fairfax saw 38,495 more people move out than move in. The only reason the county lost “only” 2,795 people is because births over deaths made up for most, but not all, of that out-migration. Virginia Beach had the state’s second-highest out-migration: The beach saw 12,522 more people move out than move in. I’ll put these figures in more context on Friday. By contrast, almost all of Virginia outside the urban crescent went the other way, with some communities, such as Danville, standing out as especially strong people magnets.

We saw some of these trends — faintly — before the pandemic. They really kicked in during and after the pandemic, although it’s unclear how much that had to do with things. Those years also coincide with the growing availability of broadband across rural Virginia (which enables remote work) and high housing prices (which are often held responsible for some of the population declines in Fairfax; existing residents may be retiring and moving out, but it’s hard for new residents to move in). 

Whatever the cause, these trends are now accelerating in many places. 

The past year has seen 16 localities switch from net out-migration to net in-migration. Of those, 12 are either in Southwest or Southside:

In three of the four rural areas that remain on the minus side for net out-migration, three have seen their rates of net out-migration slow — Buchanan, Dickenson, Wise — which suggests that they, too, are seeing more people move in, just not enough to switch the balance. The one exception is Henry County, which has seen net out-migration increase. 

Finally, there’s one community that merits special attention:

Roanoke: Is the Star City growing or shrinking?

The Census Bureau estimates said that from 2020-2024 the city had lost population to the tune of 2,104. The Weldon Cooper estimates said that from 2020-2024 the city had lost 504 and by the time we extended that to 2020-2025 the city had gained 75 people. I wish I had a good way to explain this but I don’t, except that the two estimates rely on different methodologies and we saw a similar discrepancy last year with Fairfax County. 

I can, though, pinpoint where these two estimates differ most: migration. Both estimates agree that in Roanoke, deaths outnumber births. Those figures rely on actual reports — birth certificates and death certificates. The migration estimates are where the issue is. The Census Bureau shows Roanoke with net out-migration; Weldon Cooper shows it with net in-migration. Migration estimates are also squishier. (There are probably whole dissertations that could be written on the differences but this will do for now.) I can’t begin to tell you which one is right and which one is wrong. What I can say is that last year Weldon Cooper showed Roanoke with 391 net in-migration and now shows that growing to 988. I’m sure that’s the figure Roanoke officials would prefer. Until we get an actual headcount in four years, we really won’t know for sure. 

If we assume Weldon Cooper is right, then Roanoke’s migration change is in line with neighboring localities, which have also seen their net in-migration figures double in a year’s time:

If Roanoke’s net migration is increasing, that would also fit the overall state trends, which sees net migration increasing almost everywhere outside the urban crescent. It doesn’t surprise me that Roanoke’s net migration would be lower than neighboring localities: Cities are generally already built out, while surrounding counties have lots of developable land. Still, someone should probably ask why even the most favorable interpretation of Roanoke’s in-migration numbers shows the city attracting fewer residents than Danville and Lynchburg, Staunton and Waynesboro, Petersburg and Winchester, all smaller cities, and why even this most optimistic estimate of Roanoke’s in-migration puts the city just barely ahead of Martinsville.

Whatever the answer there is won’t be found in these numbers.

Coming Friday: A deeper look at some of these numbers.

Want more politics and analysis? Sign up for West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter that goes out on Fridays. Sign up here: