The push to hold a referendum on whether to redraw Virginia’s congressional lines before November’s midterms is currently held up in court, but if Virginians could vote, they’d vote against redistricting.
Those are the findings of the latest Roanoke College poll, which found that 52% would vote against the proposed constitutional amendment that would enable redistricting, while 44% would vote in favor.
This poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.43 percentage points, is the first public poll taken since the proposed map of new lines was released that shows how Democrats seek to knock out four of the state’s five Republican U.S. House members.
Two polls taken before the map came out produced conflicting results. A Christopher Newport University poll in early January found that redistricting would pass 51% to 43%, while a subsequent poll for the conservative pro-renewable Energy Right group showed it would fail 53% to 29%.
These poll results come as Republicans have scored two wins in legal challenges to the referendum, which have now been appealed to the Virginia Supreme Court. These poll results may also help explain why the pro-redistricting side has launched a $5 million campaign and U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has vowed to spend “tens of millions” on behalf of the referendum.
It’s notable that, when those polled were asked which political party they identified with, the number who identified as Republicans has slipped since last year, yet a majority still backed the Republican position against redistricting.
There appear to be two reasons for this. First, more than a quarter of Democrats aren’t on board with redistricting: 71% are in favor, but 27% are opposed. Second, independents oppose redistricting by near-landslide levels: 56% say they’re opposed, while only 40% say they support the effort. The “yes” side could potentially win over those reluctant Democrats with a more partisan campaign, but the risk is that would further alienate independents.
The poll generated some criticism online because the poll question did not use the same wording as the actual ballot question, which has also been challenged in court on the grounds that it is misleading.
Here’s how the poll phrased the question:
The General Assembly passed an amendment to the Virginia Constitution allowing them to do middecade redistricting and approved a new map which is thought to favor Democrats in 10 of the 11 congressional districts in Virginia. A special election must be held for voters to approve the amendment before any mid-decade redistricting can take effect. If you had to decide today, would you vote to approve the amendment to allow mid-decade redistricting, or keep the current process as it is now?
The ballot, as currently phrased, will read:
“Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia’s standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census?”
Republicans contend the reference to “restore fairness” makes the question misleading. A judge in Tazewell County agreed, part of a ruling that’s been appealed. A separate suit over the ballot language has been filed in Richmond.
In other poll findings:
Trump remains deeply unpopular in Virginia
President Donald Trump’s disapproval rate stands at 61%, down slightly from 63% in November. However, his disapproval rate in Virginia during his second term remains consistently higher than during his first term. During Trump’s initial term, his disapproval rate in Virginia was generally in the low 50s and only twice rose as high as 58%. In six Roanoke College polls taken during his current term, it’s been over 60% three times.
These high disapproval rates potentially could put some Republican House members at risk even if the effort to redraw congressional lines fails, either in the courts or at the ballot box. One thing the pro-redistricting side has going for it is that independents strongly disapprove of Trump by margins that mirror the overall state figures. The question then becomes: Do independents despise Trump enough that it overcomes their innate distaste of gerrymandering?
Spanberger starts where Youngkin left off
For someone who won the election in November with 57.58% of the vote, the largest share for a Democratic candidate for governor in Virginia since 1961, Abigail Spanberger’s approval rating seems a little soft: 53% approve of her handling of the job so far, 39% disapprove. That’s almost exactly where Republican Glenn Youngkin stood when he left office: 54% approved, 38% disapproved.
One possible interpretation: Spanberger won by such a large margin not because voters liked her that much but because some really didn’t like her opponent, so this 53% approval rate may be a more “natural” reading of the electorate.
Majority now thinks Virginia is on the wrong track
If there’s a danger sign for Spanberger, and Democrats generally, it’s this: 51% of Virginians now think the state is on the wrong track, while 47% think it’s on the right track.
That’s a switch from the previous Roanoke College poll in November, where 50% said right track, 46% wrong track. That’s a shift of just a few percentage points and could be within the margin of error. Still, this is just the second time in the past 31 Roanoke College polls, going back to 2017, where the poll found a majority of respondents thinking the state is headed in the wrong direction.
Virginians want more restrictive gun laws, but doubt their impact
The poll asked a battery of questions about guns. On the policy choices, Virginians came down on the side of more restrictions — registering guns, banning the sale of certain high-capacity firearms. However, they also didn’t think such laws would do much good: Given a choice between “better enforcement” and “tougher laws” as a way to combat gun-related violence, 56% said enforcement would do more than tougher laws.
Meanwhile, 52% said mental illness is the main cause of mass shootings, while only 30% cited weak laws.
When asked, “Which do you think is more important — to protect the right of Americans to own guns, OR to control gun ownership?” Virginians were split: 49% said protect gun owners, 48% said control guns.
I’ll dig deeper into these poll results in this week’s edition of West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter. Sign up here: