Democrats in Washington did something Tuesday that raises the question of just how much Virginia Democrats really need a rare mid-decade gerrymander of congressional lines.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the 5th District — as currently drawn — to its list of “targeted” races that would get extra money and attention in the fall midterms. The 5th, represented by Republican John McGuire, joins the 1st District, represented by Rob Wittman, and the 2nd District, represented by Jen Kiggans, as targeted districts.
While simply being chosen as one of the party’s targeted districts is no guarantee of victory, it means that three of the state’s five Republican-held districts are being targeted. The purpose of the new congressional map is to knock out four of the state’s five Republican House members — part of a nationwide scramble by both parties to draw more favorable lines, a process set off by Texas Republicans.
If Democrats think they might be able to win three seats with the current map, then the new map is really just about winning one additional seat — and, of course, guaranteeing as many of those seats as possible. Whether that one extra Democratic seat, plus better odds on the other three, is worth all the drama of redistricting, is something voters will decide in an April 21 referendum — if the Virginia Supreme Court allows the measure to go forward. A Tazewell County judge had blocked the proposed constitutional amendment that would allow the redistricting, but his ruling has been appealed.
The 5th District, which covers Charlottesville and most of Southside, was one of five districts across the country added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s targeted list, bringing the total number to 44.
“The new offensive targets are all in districts that Trump won by 13% or less, and reflect a sustained, dramatically positive political environment where Democrats are overperforming in all special elections since Trump was inaugurated, including in congressional special elections by more than 17%,” the committee said in a statement.
Donald Trump won the 5th District with 56.2% of the vote in 2024 to 43.8% for Kamala Harris, a difference of 12.4 percentage points, according to data compiled by the Almanac of American Politics 2026. In recent special elections across the country, Democrats have been racking up big gains. While those victories do seem indicative of a favorable electoral environment for Democrats this year, special elections may not be predictive of the same margins in November when both parties are fully engaged in a general election campaign.
McGuire won his first term that year with a slightly higher share of the vote — 57.26% to 42.27% for the Democratic candidate, Gloria Witt.
By contrast, Trump won the targeted 1st District with 52.5% of the vote and the targeted 2nd District with 50.1% of the vote, so adding the 5th District represents a significant escalation of Democratic bullishness about their prospects.
Further out of reach would be the current 6th District, which Trump won with 62.1% of the vote and Republican Ben Cline won with 63.12%. Even the Democrats’ redrawn map concedes the 9th District in Southwest Virginia, which Trump won with 72.2% and Republican Morgan Griffith won with 72.49%.
It’s unclear how much of the Democratic decision to target the 5th is based on the perceived strength of the party’s potential nominees. However, the recent campaign finance reports show that the best-funded Democrat, former U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello of Albemarle County, raised more money than McGuire in the final quarter of 2025 and entered the year with more than twice as much cash on hand — $676,616 for Perriello to $314,375 for McGuire. Another Democratic candidate, Mike Pruitt, nearly matched McGuire’s fundraising in the last quarter; he entered the year with $154,524 cash on hand.
If voters approve the redistricting plan, all these matchups will be changed: McGuire would be moved into a newly drawn 7th District that would stretch north to Arlington County and west to Augusta County. Perriello and Pruitt would get moved into a reconfigured, and Democratic-leaning, 6th District where Roanoke author Beth Macy is also a candidate for the Democratic nomination.
Want more politics and analysis? Sign up for West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter that goes out on Fridays. Sign up here: