Virginia Democrats may have just delivered a master class on why 66.1% of Virginians voted in 2020 to take the power of redistricting out of the hands of state legislators.
The majority party in the General Assembly may have delivered on its vow to draw a map intended to eliminate four of the state’s five Republican U.S. House members (although that might be in some dispute). On a percentage basis, it’s the most extreme of any of the gerrymanders we’ve seen across the country in this rare mid-decade scramble to tilt the playing field one way or another before November’s congressional midterms.
Virginia Democrats have done so at the expense of old-fashioned geographic communities of interest — and, in some cases, some of the party’s best-funded challengers, most notably Roanoke author Beth Macy and former Rep. Tom Perriello of Albemarle County. Instead, they’ve drawn elongated districts snaking out of Northern Virginia that, in at least one case, is apparently designed to favor one of the state legislators who will now vote on the maps. In the process, Democrats may have inadvertently created some Democratic constituencies that might be better off under the current maps.
We now await a Virginia Supreme Court ruling on whether the state can legally proceed with this redistricting; a Tazewell County judge said no, but that case has been appealed and both sides seem supremely confident that they will prevail. If the state’s highest court upholds the Tazewell ruling, then this is all “sound and fury signifying nothing,” as Shakespeare once wrote. If the court clears the way, then we barrel toward an April 21 special election on whether to approve a constitutional amendment to temporarily set aside that previous amendment that was intended to create less-partisan maps.
The question then will be: Are Democrats so furious at President Donald Trump that they’ll vote for any map, no matter how illogical it is, that kicks out four Republican House members? Or will some have misgivings about a map that cuts out their preferred candidates in favor of others who are perceived as more party insiders? A corollary to that: Are any independents so disgusted by the sight of gerrymandering that they come out and vote “no”? Or are they also so inclined against Trump that they don’t bother to weigh in on what the map looks like because that’s a partisan affair and they’re not partisans?
A full analysis of the proposed map that was released Thursday night about 7:20 requires more math than I’m capable of on short notice, but here are some first impressions:
1. One of the Democrats’ best fundraisers will get shafted
We just don’t know which one yet — Macy or Perriello. Both had quickly proven themselves prodigious fundraisers in their short campaigns. For context: Both had raised more money in the final quarter of 2025 than any of the Republican House candidates in the state, incumbents included. Both have more cash on hand than their intended opponents — Republican Ben Cline for Macy or Republican John McGuire for Perriello.
None of that seemed to matter to the Democratic mapmakers. They brushed aside suggestions that the Democratic gerrymander try to draw favorable districts for each. Instead, they are now lumped into a single district, which means one of them will get eliminated in a primary. (Or maybe both; that new district also includes Albemarle supervisor Mike Pruitt, who is also running.)
This reconfigured 6th District does no favors for either Macy or Perriello. Macy gets pitted against Perriello, who has raised more money and whose base in Charlottesville and Albemarle contains twice as many Democratic voters as Macy’s base in the Roanoke Valley. Meanwhile, Perriello sees most of his former constituents in the old district shorn away from him. While he faced an uphill fight in the current 5th District, he was at least running on familiar ground. He’s now put in a district where many of the voters are strangers to him (unless you count his unsuccessful bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2017).
This newly drawn 6th District also opens the way for Roanoke Del. Sam Rasoul, if he chooses to get in.
2. Democrats did not really deliver on their vow to create a 10-1 map
This map could deliver 10 Democrats and one Republican — in a good Democratic year. However, to get there, mapmakers were forced to stretch some potential margins thinner than some Democratic candidates might like.
“In all likelihood, this map will produce a 10-1 Democratic delegation in 2026, as it is highly likely a 2018-esque blue tsunami will crash upon the shores of the Commonwealth,” writes political analyst Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate. However, he warned: “No, this is not a ‘10-1’ map as promised by Virginia Democrats. On the contrary, it’s an 8-3 map, and in Republican wave years could produce a 7-4 map.”
The irony is that Democrats likely could have produced an 8-3 result under the current map (by defeating Rob Wittman in the 1st and Jen Kiggans in the 2nd) with an outside shot at 9-2 if Perriello were able to upset John McGuire in the 5th.
That means all these gyrations to produce a new map isn’t about Democrats picking up four seats, it’s about picking up two — because Democrats might have won two the old-fashioned way.
It also means that Democrats are making a very short-term bet on 2026. If the pendulum swings in 2028 or 2030, they could be at risk of losing a bunch of seats.
3. Democrats did not help their best-funded challenger
That’s former Rep. Elaine Luria of Norfolk, who wants a rematch with Kiggans. Luria was a victim of the current maps, drawn by court-appointed special masters instructed to ignore partisanship. Those maps reshaped the 2nd District in ways that it made it more Republican — opening the way for Kiggans to defeat her in 2022. Strangely, this Democratic map doesn’t really do Luria any favors; the new district looks much like the current one. Democrats gerrymandered almost everywhere except Hampton Roads. Why didn’t they try to help Luria more? Here’s a possible reason.
4. Scott gets a free ride
Rep. Bobby Scott, D-Newport News, won two years ago with 70% of the vote in the 3rd District. Two years before that, he won with 67%.
Mapmakers could have drawn that percentage down some by giving some Democratic voters to the 2nd District and still left Scott in a very safe district.
Instead, they only tinkered around the edges. There are legal considerations that mapmakers had to keep in mind regarding the Voting Rights Act — this is, as drawn under this map, a 41.17% Black district. One also has to wonder what political considerations were involved in essentially not touching Scott’s district. By contrast, the state’s other Black House member, Democrat Jennifer McClellan of Richmond, saw her 4th District reshaped by stretching it west to Pittsylvania County and Danville.
5. Some Democratic incumbents lose a lot of their constituents and gain new ones
Given that the Democrats’ intent was to deprive four Republicans of their seats, we should not be surprised at how some Republican incumbents see their districts chopped up with a meat cleaver. What’s surprising is how some Democratic incumbents wound up with wildly different districts. Some of this was inevitable to make a map work, but three Democratic House members would find themselves running in some very new places under this map. Eugene Vindman of Prince William County (now in the 7th but in the 1st on this map) would wind up campaigning in Hanover and King William counties. James Walkinshaw (now in the 11th but in the 7th on this map) would have constituents as far away as Augusta County. Don Beyer of Alexandria would stay in the 8th but it’s been stretched down to the Peninsula.
This scenario is highly unlikely but possible: Some well-funded rural Democrat surfaces (yes, I know, a rare creature) who manages to pose a challenge to a Northern Virginia incumbent who has lost a lot of his base. In theory, every Democratic incumbent in Northern Virginia could lose in a primary and get replaced by someone deep in rural Virginia.
6. Beware of analysis based on the 2025 election results
I’ve seen lots of analysis of the maps using last November’s election results. That’s natural; that’s our most recent election. However, it was also an unusual one. Democrat Abigail Spanberger won with the highest percentage of any Democratic candidate since Albertis Harrison in 1961. That means any analysis based on the 2025 results probably overstate Democratic strength, which means some of these districts may be more competitive than they first appear. Some might say that’s proof this isn’t really a gerrymander; others might say this is Democratic hubris that forgets how election waves ebb and flow.
Democrats should not be deluded into thinking that just because a map is color-coded blue now based on the 2025 results means it will stay that way.
7. Remember that congressional candidates don’t have to live in their district
They just have to live in the state. Morgan Griffith lives in Salem. When he first ran for the 9th District seat, Salem was in the 6th. Then it got moved to the 9th. Now it’s back in the 6th — but Griffith still represents the 9th. This map keeps Griffith in a reconfigured 6th and puts Ben Cline in the 9th. That might not matter at all.
8. This map opens the way for Bob Good to run again
The former Republican congressman from the 5th District — who lost a bitter 2024 primary to John McGuire — now finds McGuire’s home in Goochland County moved to the 7th District with Democrat James Walkinshaw. If McGuire chose to run there, then the reconfigured 5th needs a Republican candidate. Good would be an underdog; this district is designed to be Democratic but there’s at least an opportunity.
9. We don’t know what independents will make of this map
Maybe they won’t care. However, we can’t rule out that independents will look at this map and recoil from the sheer ugliness of some of these districts. Five districts start in Northern Virginia and reach out into rural areas that bear no resemblance to the D.C. suburbs. Rural interests are completely submerged in these maps, which was the intent, since rural areas almost always vote Republican. However, we can flip that around: What will people in Fairfax County and Prince William County feel about being split between five different congressional districts? You can argue that’s more influence, but the reality is it’s less because those counties’ share of any individual district is greatly reduced.
We also don’t know what independents will make of the obvious insider trading with maps designed to benefit certain legislators who are expected to jump into races now.
10. Some Democrats would be better off under the current maps
Macy supporters in the Roanoke Valley ought to be the most furious — this map seems almost designed to sidetrack her campaign. I don’t really believe that was the intent; I suspect the intent was to help potential Democratic candidates elsewhere and Democrats in Richmond simply didn’t care what happened to Macy (or Perriello, for that matter) because she’s far away from Richmond and not connected to any party establishment. Still, any Macy supporters who vote for redistricting are indirectly voting to hurt their candidate. Perriello supporters could well feel the same way. I’m surprised that national Democratic groups interested in electing more women, and more “outsiders,” haven’t cried “Foul!” at a map that so clearly disadvantages a female candidate at the experience of a male candidate who’s a former congressman. Or, then again, maybe nobody cares as long as it delivers a 10-1 result this year, regardless of who the 10 are.
As we delve further into this map, we might well find other Democratic constituencies that are hurt by these maps.
I’m sure I’ll have more to say about these maps later. I know for sure I have more to say about the congressional fundraising so far in this week’s edition of West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter. Sign up here: