Virginia Democrats say they have no choice but to respond to President Trump’s effort to maintain control of the U.S. House of Representatives by urging Republican states to eliminate as many Democrat-held seats as possible.
But many Democratic legislators favor a plan that by some measures would be a more extreme political gerrymander than any other state.
Democrats who control the General Assembly want to recast Virginia’s 11 congressional districts in a way that makes it possible to flip as many as four of the state’s five congressional seats now held by Republicans.
Some Democrats, including Gov. Abigail Spanberger, have cautioned that a 10-D, 1-R configuration would be a bridge too far.
Democrats’ plans to air the maps in public have been delayed this week as legislators have gone behind closed doors to settle House and Senate differences over how districts would benefit particular politicians.
House Speaker Don Scott and Senate Finance Chair Sen. Louise Lucas, both from Portsmouth, could not be reached for comment.
Ben Tribbett, a political consultant for Lucas, told Cardinal News that a 10-1 map would be fairer to Republicans than a 9-2 map.
Tribbett said a 9-2 map would result in nine safe Democratic districts.
“A 10-1 map guarantees that a number of seats are more competitive and can change if the voters want to elect more Republicans,” he said in a text message. “9-2 is basically cancelling democracy for the next six years.”
“If the Democrats are so confident Virginians want such a radical change in our representation, they would leave the maps alone and let the voters decide for themselves,” said Finlay Lee, campaign manager for Virginians for Fair Maps, a GOP-funded group.
In Virginia, politicians don’t have the final say on redistricting because of a voter-approved bipartisan Redistricting Commission enshrined in the state constitution since 2021. A statewide ballot measure tentatively scheduled for April 21 will ask voters to approve a short-term bypass of the commission.
That ballot measure was put on hold last week when a circuit court judge in Tazewell County ruled that legislative Democrats cut legal corners and ignored their own rules in an effort to rush the measure before voters.
On Wednesday, the Virginia Supreme Court received an emergency appeal of the order by Judge Jack Hurley Jr.
If the vote takes a place and is approved by voters, the Democrat-controlled General Assembly could redraw maps in time for congressional midterm elections this November. (The plan would not affect the current state legislative districts.)
Until the maps are released, we won’t know exactly how big of a gerrymander that Democrats will propose.
But assuming Democrats press their full advantage, Republicans across rural Virginia, including those in Southside Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley, would be effectively disenfranchised in congressional elections until 2032, after the next Census.
The only safe haven for GOP congressional candidates would be in Virginia’s far southwestern tip.
Here’s how a 10-1 district in Virginia would compare with the gerrymanders imposed or proposed in other states.
Easier to gerrymander a state with fair districts
A mid-decade gerrymander is a lot easier in some states than others. Some states like Texas and North Carolina already had maps that favored one party over the other. Think of an orange that already has been squeezed. There’s only so much more juice you can get out of it.
States with fair maps are easier to rejigger.
Virginia’s current maps are considered a model of fairness. The current maps were drawn by bipartisan experts assigned by the state Supreme Court in 2021, after a new Redistricting Commission deadlocked.
Virginia is one of 22 states that received an A grade by the Princeton Gerrymandering Project.
The two court-appointed experts — one Republican, one Democrat — explained the congressional map drawn in December 2021 reflected the state’s political balance, with six Democratic seats and five Republican seats.
On a good night, they wrote, Republicans could win a majority of seats. On a good night, Democrats could win more than six seats. “Overall, this map is well-balanced, does not unduly favor any party,” the memo said.
Here are grades assigned by the Princeton Gerrymandering Project to the seven states that have joined the redistricting war:
Congressional Map Fairness Grades
Missouri A
Virginia A
California B
Ohio D
Florida F
North Carolina F
Texas F
The share of seats that new maps would put in play
One way to consider the impact of mid-decade maps is the number of seats each state has or plans to put into play.
Virginia Democrats may try to flip four seats, which works out to 36 percent of the state’s congressional delegation. That is a more than twice the share of all districts than any other state that has joined the mid-decade redistricting battle.
Targeted seats as % of state’s congressional seats
Another way to look at this is to consider that states (California, Texas and Florida) are trying to wring five seats out of much bigger populations. California, for example, has a congressional delegation that is four times the size of Virginia’s.
The share of out-of-power seats targeted
A 10-1 map would give Virginia the most aggressive gerrymander of any other state. Virginia’s only rival here would be Florida, a state where Republicans are seeking to squeeze out five more seats from an already gerrymandered map.
Targeted seats as % of out-of-power seats
A debate about what is “fair”
Public opinion polls suggest some Virginians have conflicting opinions about gerrymandering.
A recent Christopher Newport University poll shows that two-thirds of Virginians prefer that legislative districts should be drawn without favoring one political party over the other.
But more than one in five of those who believe gerrymandering is wrong are ready to make an exception this year to counter President Trump’s effort to rig districts in other states.
The outcome of the April ballot question could come down on what a majority of voters consider “fair.”
Would fairness lead people to vote against a partisan gerrymander that would disenfranchise Republicans across rural Virginia, including those in Southside Virginia and possibly the Shenandoah Valley?
Or would a sense of fair play prompt people to vote for a gerrymander that could help create a legislative check in Washington on President Trump’s seemingly boundless notion of power?
To add to confusion, the two groups that are organizing to defeat and pass the measure are messaging around the word “Fair” included in their names.
“Virginians for Fair Maps” is a Republican group opposed to the ballot measure. “Virginians for Fair Elections” is a Democrat-funded group backing the ballot measure.