The Buchanan County Board of Supervisors holds a public hearing today on whether to spend up to $6 million on the Appalachian School of Law, a struggling, stand-alone private law school in Grundy that has been looking at a merger with Roanoke College in Salem as a way to survive.
Passions have run high, and passion often clouds good judgment.
Buchanan County officials naturally don’t want to lose the school, whose 47 employees and 184 students constitute an economic development presence in an economically stressed community. On the other hand, the danger is that Buchanan County spends $6 million on Appalachian and still loses the school.
For Buchanan County, $6 million is not an insignificant amount. It is almost half of what the county spends each year on its public school system. (The most recent state reports put that at $14.57 million.)
With that in mind, here are four facts that the Buchanan County supervisors and their constituents might want to think about.
1. Virginia’s law school enrollment has fallen by 19%
Appalachian says it needs 300 students to be economically viable, and it’s never had that many. As a stand-alone school, Appalachian has no undergraduate feeder program, the way most law schools do as affiliates of a four-year university. There are also demographic challenges that I laid out in a previous column: The pool of traditional college-age students is shrinking, a result of declining birth rates, which means the potential pool of law school students is also shrinking.
A recent study by the Virginia Star Bar documented this: From 2012 to 2014, law school enrollment in Virginia declined by 19%. Seven of the state’s eight law schools saw their numbers decline. Only Liberty University saw enrollment increase. The challenges facing ASL are not unique to the school; they are symptomatic of larger forces at play. If Buchanan County wants the school to stay in Grundy, it needs to figure out how to reverse these national trends. If the school moves to Salem, then Roanoke College will need to do the same.
2. Appalachian’s enrollment fell by a sharper rate than any other school
Appalachian’s enrollment in 2012 was 265, still lower than the 300 it needed. Since then, it’s fallen 42%. The second biggest drop was 23% at Washington & Lee.
Of note: In 2012, Appalachian had slightly more students than Liberty did in its law school. Since then, they’ve moved in different directions. They are obviously schools in very different circumstances — with Appalachian being a stand-alone school in a rural area, while Liberty’s law school is affiliated with a large four-year school in a metro area.
3. Appalachian’s tuition isn’t what’s keeping students away
The bar report found that Appalachian is tied with Regent University for the second-lowest law school tuition in the state — and that for the past 15 years, it’s always had some of the lowest law school tuition in Virginia.
If Appalachian isn’t attracting enough students, tuition doesn’t seem to be the main deterrent. Yes, law school tuition is high — $40,800 a year at Appalachian, this report says, but at the University of Virginia, it’s $74,700 for in-state students, $77,700 for out-of-state students.
The only law school that’s lower than Appalachian is George Mason University.
Among private law schools, Appalachian’s tuition is on the low end. Despite that …
4. Appalachian students incur more debt than other law school students in Virginia
The bar report says 54% of Appalachian students graduate with $150,000 or more in debt. The only other law school in Virginia whose students come close is the University of Virginia, where 47% finish with that amount of debt. The difference is that UVa’s tuition is much higher. Here are the figures by school:
Appalachian 54%
Virginia 47%
William & Mary 24%
George Mason 21%
Richmond 21%
Liberty 19%
Regent 17%
Note: Figures for W&L were not listed.
What does this mean? It suggests that Appalachian attracts less-affluent students, or at least students with less access to other sources of funding. This might not have any bearing on Buchanan County, but it could have an impact on Roanoke College if the law school winds up there. However, it does raise a question about whether there is a sufficient pool of potential students for Appalachian to ever reach 300 students in the current environment.
Now, here are three questions the supervisors might want to think about:
1. Should Buchanan County require an independent study?
Before one of the most economically stressed counties in the state spends $6 million, should it get an independent assessment of Appalachian’s viability in its current location? Hoping that $6 million will fix the problem does not necessarily make it so. Conversely, even if Appalachian said that amount would be sufficient, shouldn’t Buchanan County be sure before it writes a seven-figure check? Before the supervisors spend almost half what they spend on the K-12 school system, they might want some professional, independent assessment of Appalachian’s prospects, especially in light of enrollment trends both statewide and nationwide. For that matter, Roanoke College may want to know that, too, but at least they’re in the college business, so presumably already understand these things.
2. What’s the opportunity cost for Buchanan County?
As with any expenditure, it’s fair to ask: If Buchanan County has $6 million to spend, what else could the county spend it on, and how would that compare to this in terms of the payoff? It’s up to Buchanan County to order its own priorities, but the question still needs to be asked as a matter of due diligence.
3. What kind of deal could Buchanan County strike with Roanoke College?
Buchanan County has a say in what happens to Appalachian because the county appoints half the school’s board. While the county is understandably loath to part with an asset, it also faces a predicament. Obviously, the best outcome would be if the school stayed in Grundy and thrived there, but the record so far suggests that’s not going to happen — and the trend lines aren’t encouraging. The school’s enrollment challenges are part of a national trend; can Buchanan County realistically expect to buck those? However, if Appalachian closes, that still looks bad for Buchanan County. That poses an awkward question: Which is worse — that Appalachian closes and leaves Buchanan with a stigma, however undeserved, or that the county loses one of its assets and makes a go of it elsewhere?
There is a third potential option: What can Buchanan County get out of Roanoke College in return for the county’s acquiescence to the move? The county has invested in the school, so rightly wants something more than a goodbye wave and the good conscience of knowing the school might do better in another place. How about this: What if Roanoke College offered scholarships for Buchanan County high school graduates? For how many students, and for how many years, would Roanoke College need to do that to pay off whatever investment Buchanan County feels it’s losing? One advantage of this proposal: It might wind up benefiting more families in Buchanan County than ASL does now.
These are not pleasant questions to ask, but for Buchanan County, they may be $6 million questions.
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