While Democrats may have lost, for now, in the courts, in their bid to redraw the state’s congressional lines before the November elections, they might well win if the question winds up on a state ballot this spring.
A new poll from Christopher Newport University, released Tuesday, finds that 51% of registered voters surveyed support a mid-cycle redistricting, while 43% oppose.
That’s close enough that a robust campaign could change the results, but Democrats would begin with an electoral advantage if a special election were held.
Democrats in the General Assembly had hoped to schedule an April 21 special election for a proposed constitutional amendment that would allow partisan redistricting to meet their goal of eliminating four of the state’s five Republican U.S. House members. On Tuesday, a Tazewell County judge issued an order blocking the push for the amendment, saying the legislature had failed to follow multiple laws in its rush to schedule a vote, but Democrats have vowed to appeal.
To the extent that the Democratic argument for redistricting is to provide a counter-balance to President Donald Trump, Republicans have a political disadvantage: The CNU poll shows Trump’s disapproval rating in Virginia soaring to 62%, up from 56% last fall. His approval rating fell from 41% to 34%. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, research director for the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at CNU, said it was the lowest approval rating for a president she’d seen in any of CNU’s polling over the years.
Here are some of the key findings from the poll, which was conducted Jan. 13-20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%:
Democrats are ahead on redistricting, but Republicans may have an opening
In 2020, Virginia voters approved a constitutional amendment to take the power of redistricting away from the General Assembly — which, in practice, meant the majority party in the General Assembly — and give it to a bipartisan commission with a mandate to draw “fair” maps. If that commission deadlocked (which it did), the task went to the Virginia Supreme Court, which is responsible for the current maps.
The poll found that nearly two-thirds of Virginians — 63% — like the current method, with large majorities from across the ideological spectrum backing it (68% of Republicans, 61% of independents, 61% of Democrats).
The proposed amendment (currently on hold after the Tazewell judge’s ruling) would temporarily set that method aside for the rest of this decade. That’s where the poll found 51% in favor of that new amendment, 43% against.
However, the poll also suggests that some voters are confused: 34% of Republicans say they’re in favor of the new amendment, even though it’s specifically aimed at eliminating Republican House members.
If there is a special election, the first order of business for Republicans would seem to be educating their own voters about why the amendment would be detrimental to their interests. The second should be aimed at those independents who say they like the current method, yet support temporarily changing it: 51% of independents support the new amendment, 44% oppose. Maybe that Republican appeal to independents would work, maybe it wouldn’t, but the high number of people who like the current method does present Republicans with an opportunity. Their challenge is the high disapproval rate for Trump, which we’ll get to shortly.
Also curious: 29% of Democrats say they oppose the new amendment. Do they really? The danger for Republicans is that those Democrats who oppose changing the rules might melt away in the face of a partisan campaign. The danger for Democrats is that not all of their base is on board.
Trump’s approval rating is down, and his disapproval rating is up
Trump has never been popular in Virginia; he lost the state three times, so having his disapproval rating outweigh his approval rating in the state shouldn’t be a surprise. What’s notable are the actual numbers and how they’ve changed:
September: 39% approve, 58% disapprove
October: 41% approve, 56% disapprove
January: 34% approve, 62% disapprove
The September/October numbers don’t show much change, but the January numbers do. The poll doesn’t shed light on why Trump’s disapproval numbers are up in January, although other parts of the poll offer some clues. We should also note that the poll was conducted after federal agents shot and killed Renee Good in Minneapolis, but before they shot and killed Alex Pretti.
There are two more significant number, though, than the overall approve/disapprove rate.
Republicans are losing independents
In these hyper-partisan times, we shouldn’t be surprised by sharp differences between the two parties. On Trump, 4% of Republicans disapprove, 98% of Democrats do. That’s where independents become key. Independents overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump, and that disapproval is rising — from 59% in October to 66% in January. It’s independents who are driving Trump’s disapproval rating up.
We see this trend across the CNU poll, with independents turning against Republicans, or Republican positions, in growing numbers. That seems a big danger sign for Republicans headed into the congressional midterms. But not the only one.
Republicans may be losing Republicans, too.
The CNU poll found far fewer people identified as Republicans and more aligned with Democrats. That presumed change in affiliation helps explain all these numbers. A more Democratic electorate produces more Democratic results. Here are the numbers:
January 2025: Independent 33, Democrats 32, Republicans 31
January 2026: Democrats 39, independents 32, Republican 27
It’s possible, of course, that this is just a bad polling sample but we must consider this in light of previous CNU polls, which have generally been on target with election results (if anything, the final CNU poll in last year’s election understated the size of the Democratic victory that soon followed). Republicans will be tempted to dismiss these results as a “bad poll,” but they do so at their peril. Nobody likes to get bad news from the doctor, either, but the solution isn’t to ignore it.
There’s been a spike in the number of Virginians concerned about the cost of living
In October, near the end of a gubernatorial campaign where Abigail Spanberger emphasized “affordability,” 18% of Virginians said that “cost of living/inflation” was their top concern. It didn’t even rank first; “threats to democracy” did. Now, 31% say “cost of living/inflation” is their top concern. That increase has come across the board, but most especially from independents, where that concern has nearly doubled, from 19% to 36%.
That is a unifying issue, while others aren’t. Immigration continues to animate Republicans; 17% say that’s their main issue, while only 1% of Democrats do. Threats to democracy remain the top issue for Democrats, with 31% of Democrats citing that, compared to only 10% of Republicans.
Independents profile more like Democrats here: After “cost of inflation,” threats to democracy ranks second for independents, while immigration barely registers.
Virginians overwhelmingly back the abortion amendment and the civil rights restoration amendments
While Virginia may or may not have a special election on the redistricting amendment in April, the state will definitely vote on three other proposed amendments to the state constitution. CNU asked about two of them: a guaranteed right to an abortion and an automatic restoration of civil rights to felons after serving their term. CNU did not ask about the amendment to guarantee the right to a same-sex marriage, citing a lack of space in a long survey.
Reproductive rights amendment: 66% support, 28% oppose
Civil rights restoration: 64% support, 30% oppose
While most Republicans oppose both measures, there is a sizable amount of dissent: 33% of Republicans back the abortion amendment, 36% of Republicans back the civil rights restoration amendment. The number of Democrats opposed to both is much smaller: 7% oppose the abortion amendment, 14% oppose the civil rights restoration amendment.
Virginians want to see retail sales of cannabis legalized
It’s currently legal to possess small amounts of cannabis, but illegal for stores to sell it (although Cardinal has documented some in Southwest Virginia that do, anyway). Democrats are pushing a bill to legalize retail sales. The poll says it has strong popular support: 60% support, 37% oppose.
As with the measures above, while most Republicans are opposed, that’s by no means a uniform position: 38% of Republicans surveyed approve of retail sales.
Virginians say they support right-to-work, but details raise questions
When pollsters start asking detailed questions, they sometimes get contradictory results. That appears to be the case here with the state’s “right-to-work” law, which says if there’s a union in the workplace, it can’t force non-union members to pay dues.
Many Democrats want to repeal that law, which they believe weakens unions. Gov. Abigail Spanberger has said she opposes repeal, which puts her at odds with many in her own party.
The poll finds that 58% support Virginia’s right-to-work law with no changes, while 33% oppose. However, when asked if they’d support a full repeal of the law, 50% say they support, 42% oppose. How can this be?
In between, pollsters asked about two possible modifications of the law: 44% said they’d support a revision that says union contracts only apply to union workers, 43% oppose. Meanwhile, 54% say they’d support a revision that says unions would not be required to represent non-union workers in labor disputes.
There’s probably enough here for both sides of this question to find some statistics they like.
Virginians want to see restrictions on data centers
Data centers don’t get much love. CNU asked four questions about possible restrictions on data centers. The lowest support was 63% saying they should get all their power from renewable or nuclear energy; the strongest was 86% who want a formal site assessment before a data center can be built that examines “the center’s impact on water usage, the regional electric grid, carbon emissions and agricultural impacts.”
Sales tax on food is unpopular
The state sales tax on food has been abolished, but the local tax remains. There are multiple proposals to eliminate that, too, including bills from Del. Joe McNamara and Sen. David Suetterlein, both R-Roanoke County. They should like these poll results: 56% want to see the tax eliminated. Curiously, Democrats and independents were more enthusiastic about abolishing the tax than Republicans were.
Republicans were 46% for abolition, 41% for keeping the tax. Meanwhile, 58% of independents and 56% of Democrats wanted to see the tax done away with.
Virginians want to see paid leave and a higher minimum wage
All of these are issues pending before the General Assembly.
Paid sick leave: 80% support, 20% oppose
Paid family and medical leave: 84% support, 15% oppose
$15-per-hour minimum wage: 76% support, 22% oppose
While these are partisan issues in the legislature, the two leave bills have majority support in this poll among Republicans, Democrats and independents. Republicans in this poll are less supportive of a $15 minimum wage, with 48% in support and 51% opposed.
Enthusiasm for stricter gun laws is more muted
While the issues above garnered landslide-level support, gun laws do not. Of those surveyed, 50% said they wanted to see stricter gun laws, 38% wanted to see them kept the same and only 8% wanted to see them less strict.
Here we see stark partisan divides: 78% of Democrats want stricter gun laws, 64% of Republicans don’t want to see them changed. Independents are more split, with 48% wanting stricter gun laws, 40% wanting them to stay the same and only 9% wanting to see them less strict.
I’ll have more to say about the survey results in this week’s edition of West of the Capital, our weekly political newsletter. Sign up here: