Virginia is the only state that limits governors to a one-and-done term. One criticism of that restriction is that by the time governors figure out the job, it’s almost time to pick another.
We may find out soon whether that’s a problem for Abigail Spanberger, who has never served in state government. It won’t be a problem, though, for much of her cabinet, which she has stocked with appointees who know quite well where the levers of power in Richmond are.
Three of her Cabinet nominees are former state legislators (Secretary of Finance-designate Mark Sickles, Secretary of Natural Resources-designate David Bulova, Secretary of the Commonwealth-designate Candi Mundon King). Two were high-ranking officials in previous administrations (Secretary of Health-designate Nick Donahue and Secretary of Health and Human Resources-designate Marvin Figueroa were both former deputy secretaries in their respective departments). Other Cabinet picks also come with experience. Secretary of Education-designate Jeffrey Smith may be new to state government, but with 15 years of experience as a school superintendent in Hampton and before that West Point, he certainly ought to know the Virginia educational system. He’ll need no introduction to what the issues are. Carrie Chenery, the choice for Secretary of Commerce and Trade, formerly ran an economic development agency in the Shenandoah Valley and earlier was an assistant Secretary of Agriculture and Forestry.
Beneath the cabinet level, Spanberger last week announced other appointments, which included a notable number of reappointments. Many of these are positions that aren’t considered partisan (such as the administrator of the Milk Commission or the director of the Department of Aviation). However, she’s keeping Michael Maul as director of planning and budget (he’s got 40-plus years of experience), and she’s bringing back Duke Storen to lead the Department of Social Services, which he ran under Gov. Ralph Northam.
That is not a lineup that will need to spend time figuring out how things work, which suggests that whatever it is Spanberger intends to do once she’s sworn in as governor on Saturday, she’ll be able to do it quickly.
Virginia’s political landscape officially begins to change Wednesday, when the General Assembly convenes in Richmond — with an enlarged Democratic majority in the House of Delegates.
Here’s an overview of the new lay of the land.
Some of Spanberger’s appointees have drawn praise from Republicans
The appointment of Stanley Meador as secretary of public safety and homeland security drew some fire because when he led the FBI’s Richmond office, two analysts there authored a report that warned about “radical traditionalist Catholic ideology.” However, others have drawn praise from across the aisle. When Spanberger named Ben Rowe of the Virginia Farm Bureau Federation as deputy secretary of agriculture, Del. Michael Webert, R-Fauquier County, took to social media to declare: “I have personally worked with Ben over the years and he is an excellent advocate for agriculture. I certainly commend Governor Elect Abigail Spanberger on her choice of Deputy Secretary.”
Likewise, after Spanberger tapped Chesterfield County Police Chief Jeffrey Kratz as the new state police superintendent, former Del. Tim Anderson, R-Virginia Beach, posted: “Wow! What an amazing choice. Chief Katz is the most law and order guy in the pool of options. He will be an amazing addition to the State Police. Great job.”
We’ll see how long these good feelings last, but in general, Spanberger has gotten high marks — both publicly and privately — from Republicans for her appointments, which further underscores the sense that Spanberger has assembled an experienced team.
The House of Delegates will look a lot different
Democrats, who previously held a 51-49 edge, picked up 13 seats in November’s election to give them their biggest majority since the late 1980s. However, that’s not the full picture of the changes. There are other new legislators who replaced retiring legislators of the same party, and then there are special elections set in motion by Spanberger plucking legislators for cabinet posts.
Once all the special elections are done, there will be at least 21 — maybe 22 — new delegates in the 100-member House. That’s more than one-fifth of the body turning over in a single election cycle. The 2023 elections, the first after redistricting, saw 35 new members, so that’s more than half the chamber changing in less than a decade. In a system where seniority matters, delegates are moving up more quickly than they once did.
One implication of so many new members is that party leaders on both sides (but especially the Democratic side) may have to deal with a lot of restive freshmen who want things to happen — but also don’t have relationships yet with other legislators.
An implication of such a large Democratic majority is that House Speaker Don Scott may have to spend some time managing expectations. It’s easier to keep members “in line” when there’s a small majority; with a large one, some legislators may expect to pass some bills that may look good in their districts but won’t necessarily help keep Democrats in power. We’ll get to one of those shortly.
We’ll have new dynamics between the House, Senate and the governor’s office
The past two years, when Democrats had narrow margins in both House and Senate, the dynamic was this: Democrats could pass bills, but the Republican governor would veto many of them. That limited what could actually be done (which is not necessarily a bad thing if you’re philosophically in tune with a system of checks and balances, but was frustrating for Democrats).
Now Democrats have the numbers to pass whatever they want (in theory) and get it signed into law (again, in theory). Reality may work differently. The Senate remains 21-19 Democratic, so Democrats can only afford one defection, or well-timed absence. It’s easy to envision a scenario where that expanded Democratic majority in the House enthusiastically passes a lot of “progressive” legislation, only to see some of those bills die, or get greatly modified, in the Senate. There may also be things that some legislators want, but the governor does not. How’s that going to work?
One key test of that will be with proposed legislation to repeal the state’s so-called right-to-work law, which forbids compulsory payment of union dues. Virtually every new Democratic legislator ran in favor of repeal, but Spanberger is opposed. How’s that going to work? Guess we’ll find out.
There will also be close attention paid to how Spanberger interacts with the legislature, and vice versa. Just because Democrats control everything doesn’t guarantee harmony. Legislators historically regard the governor as a fancy administrator. There’s a saying: “Governors come and go, but the legislature is forever.” In the 1980s, Democrats had big majorities in the legislature, but Democratic governors had to accommodate powerful figures such as Ed Willey and Hunter Andrews, two Senate Finance chairs who felt they were the ones who really ran the state. Spanberger today must acclimate herself to Louise Lucas, the current Senate Finance chair, who is just as willing to exercise her power as Willey and Andrews were.
With a new political landscape, we’re going to see a lot of bills signed into law that have been vetoed in the past
There’s a lot of pent-up demand among Democratic legislators. After being stymied for four years — two years in the House minority, then two years in the House majority but with a Republican governor still wielding a veto pen — Democrats are eager to pass a lot of bills they couldn’t before. Expect to see a rush of legislation. Republicans may not like many of those bills, but they could someday profit politically if there’s a backlash.
Look for energy issues to dominate — Democrats will want more solar energy, more battery storage and more rules for data centers. Also look for bills that overlap the intersection of economics and social justice — a higher minimum wage, for instance. This is also a budget year, and Democrats will have different spending priorities than Youngkin had.
If you want a more thorough review of what’s in play in Richmond, see this story by Cardinal’s Richmond-based political reporter, Elizabeth Beyer.
This is the year Virginia will legalize cannabis sales
One of those pent-up bills is the one to legalize retail sales of cannabis — what we used to call marijuana. Virginia has been in a gray area for four years. It’s been legal to possess small amounts of weed, but illegal to sell it, which means consumers couldn’t legally buy a legal product. If they bought it on the black market, well, the sale was illegal, but once you had the stuff, it was legal. Got that?
Democrats have twice passed bills to legalize retail sales. Youngkin vetoed them twice. Spanberger has said she’d sign the bill, so legalization now is simply a matter of parliamentary procedure — and a lot of details.
The rollout of cannabis sales will be a big deal: This is the creation of an entirely new industry, at least on the legal side of the law. It could also happen quickly. The proposed legislation envisions sales beginning as early as Nov. 1. In anticipation of that, Spanberger has tapped state Sen. Adam Ebbin, D-Alexandria, to be the “chief adviser” at the Cannabis Control Authority. Ebbin has been one of the leaders of the push to legalize retail sales of cannabis, so is well-versed in the subject. It sounds as if Ebbin will be the Cannabis Czar. His appointment sends several signals: The Cannabis Control Authority is going to be a powerful board, particularly during the startup phase when it’s approving (or rejecting) licenses for cannabis operators. By picking Ebbin, Spanberger has once again gone with a senior legislator for a key post (and set in motion a special election for his successor).
Virginians could vote on four constitutional amendments this year
Virginia’s process for amending the state constitution requires the General Assembly to pass the measure twice, with an election in between, and then have a referendum. The governor has nothing to do with this process, which is how Democrats last year set four amendments in motion. We had that intervening election in November, so now it’s time for that set vote.
Three amendments will pass the legislature — there may be much fanfare and criticism, but the legislative outcome is already known. Those three will go to voters, to give them a chance to guarantee a right to an abortion, a right to a same-sex marriage (in case the U.S. Supreme Court ever changes its mind) and to create a process to automatically restore civil rights to felons after they’ve served their time.
The fourth amendment will almost certainly pass the legislature unless there’s some political seismic shift — that’s the amendment that would temporarily set aside the state’s constitutionally mandated redistricting commission to allow the current Democratic majority to draw new, more favorable, lines in time for this year’s congressional midterms.
That likely will provoke the most intense partisan debates of the session. The Democratic plan is for that amendment to be put on the ballot for a special election as early as April; there’s also talk of putting all or some of the other amendments on the same ballot to help juice up turnout.
Interestingly, when asked about redistricting, Spanberger has referred to it as an “option,” which is much more muted language than what Lucas has used. She’s regularly posted on social media that she wants a 10-1 map — 10 Democrats, just one Republican. (The state’s current congressional delegation is 6-5 Democratic.) Might Spanberger try to slow down the rush to redistricting? Or is she simply signaling that this is somebody else’s issue, not hers?
The desire for a midcycle redistricting — gerrymandering, if you prefer — was set in motion by Texas Republicans, who saw the opportunity to pick up five new seats. California responded in kind, to squeeze out five new Democratic seats. Now other states, mostly Republican ones, have gotten into the act, and Virginia Democrats see this as their chance to counter those moves. That may not reflect new political dynamics in Richmond, but it does reflect new political dynamics across the country.
All these issues, and lots more, will play out between now and mid-March. We’ll try to stay on top of as many of them as we can.
Want to keep up with our coverage of the General Assembly? Then make sure you’re signed up for our daily newsletter as well as our weekly political newsletter, West of the Capital: