January is not starting the way December did, or the way last January did, or anything close to how January started 30 years ago.
A year ago on this date (Jan. 7), many in Virginia had a crunchy glacier from snow caked by ice over the previous two days, and we were awaiting a round of light to moderate snow a couple days later.
A month ago, we were between two very similar, nearly areawide snowfalls of 2-5 inches for most, a little less or more in some spots, on Dec. 5-8.
Thirty years ago on Jan. 6-7, 1996, one of the region’s largest snowstorms of all-time occurred, with widespread 18-30-inch totals. (Do you have memories from that snowstorm, or the flooding caused when it melted later in the month? Email weather@cardinalnews.org if you do.)
It’s not going to snow this week, a little or a lot.
Sequel to holiday warm spell
As happened around Christmas, temperatures will push into the 60s at times as a bubble of warm air has spread from the southwest over much of the central and eastern U.S.
Cold air will be back next week, and perhaps in a series of shots after that. It won’t be frigid, at least at first, just regular winter cold. Sooner or later, there will probably be at least one chance of snow or wintry mix in the last three weeks of this month, though on the whole, the overall pattern doesn’t look all that moist.
Likely rain ahead of a cold front on Friday and Saturday that shifts us from unseasonably warm to seasonably cold could be helpful for ongoing dry conditions, possibly a half inch to near an inch for many.
Multiple people around the region have told me on social media that they need a good rain for their well, or pond, or local reservoir.
With much of Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside Virginia coverage area presently in moderate drought, with much more severe drought not far to our north, we could probably use a good soaking rain (or, some would say, a deep snow that gradually melts), or a few of them before we get back into growing season and scorching summer sunshine.
Two years of drought interspersed with deluge
You may have noticed that Cardinal News’ No. 2 regional weather story in both 2024 and 2025 was exactly the same: Persistent and recurring dryness.
That can seem odd when major flooding episodes were a large part of the No. 1 regional weather stories each year — Hurricane Helene in 2024, the February frenzy of snow, ice, wind and flooding rain in 2025 — and represented by a few other ranked positions on each list.
But the extreme flooding events have been the exception that disrupted the rule.
For one example, Roanoke had almost exactly the same amount of rain in 2024 (39.83 inches) and 2025 (39.86 inches). These are each about 3 inches below normal for a calendar year. Considering 2025 had Roanoke’s third wettest February, seventh wettest May, and a single-hour record August cloudburst, that meant most of the rest of year’s nine months went down quite dry.
The last quarter, Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, was the fourth driest last three months of the year in over a century of weather records at Danville with just two inches on the button. The driest such period occurred just four years prior with only 0.8 inch in October through December of 2021.
La Niña about to flip?
One thing that has been common in the global weather patterns about the last two winters — and, indeed, frequently in much of the last five years — has been the presence of La Niña in the equatorial Pacific. The irregularly recurring strip of colder than normal sea surface temperatures that influences worldwide climate patterns has been most irregular, sprouting back up again repeatedly when it seemed it was over.
La Niña is generally tied to a lean toward drier patterns for our region, often lacking much influence from the southern branch of the jet stream that would typically bring in wet storms along the southern tier of the U.S.
Whether or not the southern branch of the jet stream becomes active is a big question with the coming colder pattern. If it doesn’t, both rain and snow chances will be harder to come by and likely not all that heavy.
The last few years have not been as dry as the 1999-2002 period was that brought on two phases of extraordinary drought for our region. But, not far north, something like that has been happening in parts of the Shenandoah Valley and Northern Virginia, now in severe drought once again after a lengthy stretch of horrid dryness in 2024.
Dryness this time of year doesn’t affect growing seasons directly, but it does affect how well reservoirs and water tables recharge for the months ahead. Our worst summer drought periods, like those near the turn of the 21st century, begin as winter droughts.
With La Niña expected to wither and possibly be replaced by its opposite, El Niño, in coming months, our moisture fortunes could flip quickly, even to the other unwanted extreme.
But for now, maybe don’t light that outdoor fire on one of the inevitable windy cold days ahead.
Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley.
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