Every year begins with questions. Here are 26 of them for 2026.
1. What will the economy do?
By imposing tariffs, President Donald Trump made more changes to the economy in his first year than most presidents do. The economy’s initial response was to see prices rise — and manufacturing jobs fall, exactly the opposite of what Trump intended. That was year one; what about year two? The Virginia economy was further recoiled by Trump’s wholesale cuts to the federal workforce. Forecasts by the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service (and other economists) warn that economic growth will be almost nonexistent in Virginia this year. Will those forecasts come true or prove to be off-base? Whatever the economy does is likely to color a lot of the politics of the year, from what our new governor can do to how the midterm elections turn out.
2. What will the new governor do?
Abigail Spanberger takes office Jan. 17 with what she says is a mandate for “affordability.” She’s rolled out some small-bore policy proposals to make energy, housing and health care more affordable (small-bore because there may be no large-scale solutions that can really tackle these problems). How well can she succeed in year one? And what else will she be confronted with?
3. Will the new lieutenant governor cast any decisive tiebreaking votes?
The odds are no. Ghazala Hashmi will likely preside over a Democratic majority in the state Senate so may not have many opportunities. (The “likely” part depends on the outcome of the Jan. 6 special election to fill her seat, but that should be a safe Democratic district.) For those of you in that Richmond and Chesterfield County district, you can see who’s running and where they stand on the Richmond and Chesterfield pages of our Voter Guide.
4. What will the new attorney general do?
Jay Jones will probably spend a lot of time going to court against the Trump administration. What else, though?
5. What will the General Assembly do?
With a trifecta in Richmond, Democrats will have the numbers to enact many bills that in the past died under Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s veto pen — or bills they didn’t even bother to pass because they knew that was the outcome. House Speaker Don Scott, D-Portsmouth, has vowed to govern “with restraint” but a year from now the answer to this section could be quite lengthy. I’ll deal separately with some of the more important items in questions 5 (redistricting), 6 (redistricting again), 8 (right-to-work), 9 (cannabis), 10 (college governance), 11 (Roanoke casino) and 12 (inland port). I take it as a given that the legislature will pass again the three constitutional amendments it’s previously approved (on abortion, same-sex marriage, restoration of civil rights to felons) and that those will likely pass in a November referendum.
6. Will Democrats succeed in drawing new congressional district lines? And, if so, what will those new district lines look like?
This is a multistep process so involves multiple questions — and answers. First, the General Assembly must pass a constitutional amendment to temporarily set aside the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission to allow the legislature to draw new lines that will be more favorable to Democrats. (There’s a word for this, of course. It’s “gerrymandering.”) That first step seems a given, the next steps are not. Voters would have to approve this in a spring special election — will they? The courts would also have to let all this go forward — will they?
The current lines, drawn by two court-appointed special masters after the bipartisan commission predictably deadlocked, put a premium on drawing compact districts that adhered to geographical boundaries as much as possible. For instance, the 6th District is entirely west of the Blue Ridge; the 5th is almost a nice, neat square in Southside. The current map has produced six Democrats, five Republicans, which matches Virginia’s overall political balance. Democrats in the General Assembly have spoken fondly of drawing at least a 9-2 map or even 10-1 — the main difference between those two is where the Roanoke Valley winds up. A 9-2 map would leave it in a Republican-dominated district; a 10-1 map would likely tie it to Charlottesville in a Democratic-leaning district.
7. Who will win those House elections?
A lot of the answer here will depend on what the districts look like. The incumbent in the 2nd District in Hampton Roads is rarely safe, no matter who it is or what the election is. That’s always been a swing district, so Republican Jen Kiggans of Virginia Beach is in the proverbial hot seat even without redistricting. Democrats have also targeted Rob Wittman of Westmoreland County in the 1st District.
We’ve also seen well-known (and well-funded) Democrats enter the field in other districts. Former Rep. Tom Perriello of Albemarle County is now trying for a comeback in the 5th, represented by Republican John McGuire of Goochland County. The 6th, represented by Republican Ben Cline of Botetourt County, is the second-most Republican congressional district in the state, but that hasn’t stopped Roanoke author Beth Macy of Roanoke from getting in.
On the other side of the aisle, the most vulnerable Democrat is likely Eugene Vindman of Prince William County in the 7th; Republicans have a field of potential challengers led by state Sen. Tara Durant of Fredericksburg.
All that changes if the congressional map is completely different from what it is now. For instance, a 10-1 likely puts Perriello and Macy in the same district, with Del. Sam Rasoul, D-Roanoke, contemplating a run as well.
Congressional midterms almost always favor the party out of presidential power, so history says this should be a Democratic year. The questions are: How Democratic? And can Republicans break those trends? Still, this all comes back to what the maps are.
8. Will right-to-work be repealed?
Spanberger has said she’d veto a repeal of the state’s so-called right-to-work law, which forbids compulsory payment of union dues if there’s a union in the workplace. There are some in the enlarged Democratic majority who would like to try anyway, so maybe the better question here is how far this effort gets.
9. Will we see legal cannabis sales this year?
Virginia is the only state where it’s legal to possess small amounts of cannabis, but you can’t buy it — raising the awkward question of where you get your weed if you don’t grow it yourself. Democrats have vowed to fix that by legalizing retail sales. A commission led by Del. Paul Krizek, D-Fairfax County, has been drafting legislation that envisions retail sales beginning as early as Nov. 1. Will that happen?
10. Will the state change the way colleges are governed?
Democrats in the General Assembly have clashed with Youngkin over some of his appointments to college boards. They’ve often been frustrated by the calendar; these appointments typically get made when the legislature is out of session, and appointees serve before they’re formally confirmed. Democrats want to change that. Will they? And what other changes might they enact?
11. Will Roanoke get approval for a casino?
The Roanoke City Council (or at least a majority on the council) wants a casino at the Berglund Center. The politics seem difficult. This would first require General Assembly approval, and all the local legislators are against it. Other key legislators elsewhere are also against it, because they say the state shouldn’t approve any new casinos until there’s a gaming commission set up to regulate them. Key regional legislators, who might have been natural allies, are also against a Roanoke casino because they see such a venue as potential competition to the casinos in Bristol and Danville. Those casinos — not to mention the Rosie’s horse race betting parlor in Vinton — likely don’t want a competitor in Roanoke. Nonetheless, the city is paying a lobbyist $6,000 a month to figure how this can be pulled off in Richmond. Even if the legislature gave the OK, voters would need to approve a casino in a referendum.
12. Will the new state budget fund the proposed inland port in Washington County?
Youngkin has proposed $35 million and Spanberger repeatedly endorsed the project during her campaign, so this funding seems likely. Still, one never knows …
13. Who will win the U.S. Senate race?
Democratic incumbent Mark Warner will be on the ballot. There are presently three Republicans seeking their party’s nomination, but none are well-known. Warner will begin as a heavy favorite.
14. Who will win the Roanoke council elections?
Three seats (all Roanoke council seats are at large) will be on the ballot: the ones now held by Evelyn Powers, Vivian Sanchez-Jones and Peter Volosin. Powers was appointed to fill the seat Joe Cobb vacated when he became mayor; Sanchez-Jones and Volosin ran and won as Democrats. Who will run in 2026? Will we see any challenges in a Democratic primary? Republicans in 2024 won their first council seat since 2000. Who will they field? Will we see an independent slate? Will opposition to Roanoke’s quest for a casino fuel any candidacies?
15. Who will win Lynchburg’s council elections?
Oh boy, this could be a big one. Lynchburg’s 6-1 Republican majority is divided into two factions, with one member who has managed to avoid affiliating with either. This year, one member from each group is up for reelection: the twice-censured Marty Misjuns, Stephanie Reed (who Misjuns’ faction didn’t reelect as mayor) and Mayor Larry Taylor. The first question is who will run in a Republican primary and who will win? The second is whether Democrats can take advantage of the infighting to win any seats. The third is whether there might be some independent slate of candidates.
16. What will happen with Dominion Energy’s offshore wind project?
The wind farm about 27 miles off the coast of Virginia Beach was supposed to start producing power this year. Instead, the Trump administration — which is anti-wind energy — has “paused” Dominion’s lease of federal waters for a 90-day review on national security grounds. Dominion has gone to court to challenge the legality of this pause. If the administration were to shut down the project entirely, then Dominion ratepayers would be stuck paying the $11 billion price of something that’s not producing a single kilowatt. While Dominion is primarily a utility for eastern Virginia, its service territory does reach as far west as Alleghany County, so customers there have a stake in the outcome. (Disclosure: Dominion is one of our donors, but donors have no say in news decisions; see our policy.)
17. Will the wind farm under construction in Botetourt County start producing power this year?
It’s supposed to. The Rocky Forge site north of Eagle Rock will be Virginia’s first (and so far only) onshore wind farm. Google is buying the power for its data centers.
18. What movement will we see this year on small nuclear reactors in Virginia?
Dominion has proposed a small modular reactor for its nuclear power station at North Anna in Louisa County; Appalachian has proposed one for its Joshua Falls substation in Campbell County. What actions, if any, will we see toward actual development?
19. What fallout from the One Big Beautiful Bill, if any, will we see?
The health care industry has warned that changes to Medicaid funding could endanger rural hospitals, with six in Virginia being identified by a University of North Carolina study as being especially at risk: the ones in Emporia, Franklin (city), Kilmarnock, Pennington Gap, South Hill and Tazewell. Last year, we saw Augusta Medical Group shutter three clinics (Buena Vista, Churchville and Weyers Cave) and cite the One Big Beautiful Bill as one of the reasons.
Of note: Many of the more controversial provisions of the bill are phased in for future years, so the impacts most warned about may not happen right away — if, of course, they do at all.
20. What will happen with the Appalachian School of Law?
The independent, standalone school in Grundy says it only has enough money to operate through the spring and needs 300 students but only has 184. ASL has explored a merger with Roanoke College, which would move the school to Salem. That’s caused consternation among some in Buchanan County, where the presence of the law school has been a point of pride (and employment).
21. What will happen with the New College Institute?
The higher education center in Martinsville never evolved into an actual four-year college as once envisioned and over the years has struggled to find a new mission. Youngkin has repeatedly tried to zero NCI out of the state budget and force a merger with an existing school. The NCI board last year rejected a takeover by Patrick & Henry Community College but is still exploring a possible merger.
22. What will happen with the investigation into the former Martinsville city manager?
Martinsville fired City Manager Aretha Ferrell-Benavides amid accusations of misusing city funds, which she denies. A special prosecutor is now looking into the situation. Meanwhile, before she was fired, she took the unusual act of filing a complaint against the city with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and has been weighing legal action of her own.
23. Will the missing giraffes be found?
In December 2023, state authorities — on the initiative of Attorney General Jason Miyares’ Animal Law Unit — raided the Natural Bridge Zoo in Rockbridge County to investigate allegations of animal abuse.
In early 2024, a Rockbridge County jury awarded custody of many of those animals to the state, including four giraffes. Because giraffes are so tall, it took time for the state to move the animals, so three of them stayed at the zoo until this year. By then, two of the females were pregnant. When state officials conducted a surprise inspection in April 2025, the two females were no longer pregnant. After months of legal wrangling, a Rockbridge County judge ruled that the baby giraffes belong to the state and ordered Natural Bridge Zoo manager Gretchen Mogensen to reveal their whereabouts or serve 100 days in jail. She chose jail. Those 100 days run out Feb. 6. Then what? Actress Alicia Silverstone has offered a $50,000 reward for information leading to the giraffes’ recovery. Curiously, a suit filed by Mogensen alleges the baby giraffes are “non-existent.”
24. What will the grand jury investigation into Natural Bridge Zoo produce?
The attorney general’s office has impaneled a grand jury to investigate the original allegations of animal abuse at the zoo, along with the whereabouts of the missing giraffe calves and the death of one of the adult giraffes as it was being transported to a new home in Georgia. Will the new year bring indictments?
25. How will a federal court rule on Shenandoah County restoring Confederate names to some schools?
In 2020, the Shenandoah County School Board renamed Stonewall Jackson High School and Ashby-Lee Elementary. In 2024, the school board restored those Confederate names. The NAACP and five students filed suit, alleging that the Confederate names violate their First Amendment rights on the grounds that they must identify themselves as “Stonewall Jackson Generals” during extracurricular activities. Senior U.S. District Judge Michael Urbanski presided over a five-day trial in December but did not indicate how he would rule. He’s set a March 31 hearing for more legal arguments.
26. What will happen that we don’t know to ask about?
Something will, right? It always does.
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