Some prominent — and maybe not-so-prominent — Republicans around Virginia probably had their phones blow up with texts on Sunday.
The messages probably went something like this: Want to run for the U.S. Senate?
The party’s best-known candidate for Senate next year — state Sen. Bryce Reeves of Spotsylvania County — unexpectedly withdrew Sunday morning, citing a “serious family health matter.”
His withdrawal leaves the party without a “name” candidate next year against Democratic incumbent Mark Warner.
Republicans on social media — which is not necessarily the same as Republicans who make actual decisions — were busy chattering about other potential candidates. Before any of them say “yes,” here are some things to keep in mind.
Warner has rarely been vulnerable
Much to the chagrin of Republicans, Warner has routinely been popular among Virginians. The last time the Roanoke College poll asked about him was May 2025, when Warner posted a 51% approval rating. That’s not exactly landslide level, but he was the only politician the poll asked about who came in above 50%.
In three Senate elections,Warner has won handily in two of them — with 65% in 2008 and 56% in 2020.
The exception was 2014, when Republican Ed Gillespie nearly pulled off an upset. Warner won with 49.1% to 48.3% for Gillespie, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis taking 2.4%.
The key difference: 2014 was a midterm election for a Democratic president (Barack Obama) and midterms rarely go well for the party in power. The 2026 midterms will come with a Republican president, and all signs, both historical and current, point to 2026 being a good Democratic year, which is likely why no other name candidates have gotten into the race.
Republicans have other states that will rank ahead of Virginia in 2026
Democrats need to pick up four seats to win control of the Senate next year. That may be a tall order, given the states involved. Republicans’ first priority nationally will be holding the seats they have but they also have some opportunities to pick up seats now held by Democrats in state that at some point have voted for President Donald Trump. That means they’ll be playing defense in some states but offense in others.
On Sunday, NBC News listed “the 10 seats that will decide the balance of power in 2026.” None of those was Virginia. The “core four” are Georgia, Maine, Michigan and North Carolina. Two of those are Republican seats considered vulnerable (Susan Collins in Maine, an open seat in North Carolina) while the other two are Democratic seats considered vulnerable (Jon Ossoff in Georgia, an open seat in Michigan). Beyond that are Alaska (where a Republican Dan Sullivan may or not be vulnerable), Iowa (where a Republican incumbent is retiring), Minnesota (where a Democratic incumbent is retiring), New Hampshire (where a Democratic incumbent is retiring), Ohio (a Republican seat held by an appointee to JD Vance’s old seat) and Texas (where Republican John Cornyn faces a primary challenge and Democrats are hoping demographic changes benefit them).
The practical question is how much money Republicans are willing to put into Virginia when those 10 races above are all likely more profitable investments, either for offense or defense — and also when Republicans fared so poorly in Virginia in this year’s state elections. To the extent that Trump will be the issue next year, Virginia is a state that voted against Trump all three times he’s run. That doesn’t make Virginia a likely place for Republicans to invest.
Also of note: Warner begins with $11.8 million in the bank at the end of September, according to campaign finance reports. That’s a daunting figure for any Republican challenger, who would start out at zero.
The best-known Virginia Republicans all have good reasons not to run in 2026
Gov. Glenn Youngkin has already said he doesn’t intend to run for the Senate. Why should he? First, he’d probably be bored in the Senate; he seems a natural executive-type. Second, he’s a legitimate, if somewhat longshot, contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028. As the “Hamilton” musical advises, “don’t throw away your shot.” If the presidential nomination doesn’t seem practical, Youngkin is in a position to run again for governor in 2029 — this year’s Republican wipeout left no obvious candidate-in-waiting. Youngkin may already be calculating that. When he presented his final budget a few weeks ago, his message seemed clear: Everything’s going great, don’t mess it up. That seems the obvious set-up for another gubernatorial run.
Attorney General Jason Miyares’ name was bandied about on social media Sunday. Miyares lost his reelection bid, but still came out looking good to Republicans — Miyares was simply the victim of forces beyond his control. If Youngkin doesn’t run again in 2029, Miyares would be a natural candidate for governor.
He should probably avoid blandishments from Republicans who say that he’d be in the party’s debt if he ran for the Senate, even if he lost. That didn’t work out well for Lt. Gov. Richard “Dick” Davis in 1982. He gave in to Democratic calls to run for the U.S. Senate, ran well yet lost, but then couldn’t win his party’s nomination for governor in 1985.
John Reid, the party’s unsuccessful candidate for lieutenant governor this year, ran a spirited race with no money. However, Reid often talked about how he gave up a lucrative broadcasting job to run; he probably can’t afford to go another year without income. He’s in the process of launching a podcast so may be best suited to cheering on someone else from the sidelines.
The ideal Republican candidate? Even if the candidate isn’t likely to defeat Warner, he or she should ideally be someone who could help (or at least not hurt) vulnerable Republican House members in Virginia, particularly Jen Kiggans, R-Virginia Beach, the party’s most at-risk incumbent. I don’t have a name to offer as a potential Warner challenger but it likely should be someone who enjoys the political fight and doesn’t mind losing — but who could be seen as a serious candidate if something unexpected happens to dramatically change the political landscape.
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