Snow paints a forested landscape at Lynchburg on Dec. 5, the first of two similar snowfalls within a four-day period. Courtesy of Khalib Fischer.
Snow paints a forested landscape at Lynchburg on Dec. 5, the first of two similar snowfalls within a four-day period. Courtesy of Khalib Fischer.

Anyone who is at least 7 years old has lived through a snowier first half of December than what most of Southwest and Southside Virginia just experienced. But even someone 100 years old hasn’t seen many of them.

The first 15 days of December were among the colder and snowier few such periods in records going back over a century at many locations in Cardinal News’ coverage area.

But that is changing for the second half of December, with snow totals unlikely to be added to, and temperature averages for the entire month of December likely to rise to something out of historically cold territory by the end of month.

We’ll get back to the recent cold and snow rankings in our region after first looking at some milder weather ahead.

Folklore holds that a ring around the moon signifies coming precipitation. This seemed to hold true with this widely seen ring around the moon on Dec. 2, preceding a widespread snowfall three days later. The ring is caused by moonlight being refracted in high ice-crystal clouds. Courtesy of Sandy Carpenter Rubin.
Folklore holds that a ring around the moon signifies coming precipitation. This seemed to hold true with this widely seen ring around the moon on Dec. 2, preceding a widespread snowfall three days later. The ring is caused by moonlight being refracted in high ice-crystal clouds. Courtesy of Sandy Carpenter Rubin.

Very likely not a white Christmas

The weather pattern is making a dramatic change for the holiday period that will favor warmer than normal temperatures over a large part of the continental United States.

This will likely include Virginia, though we are located far enough east of the core of the warmth centered near Texas that there is at least some doubt how strong or how long the warmth will hold on past Christmas or New Year’s.

And “warmth” is a relative term. It may live up to being the “Torchmas” touted by some weather voices on social media over the central U.S., but for Virginia it will be mostly days of 50s highs and 30s lows, a little colder with an occasional passing cold front, and maybe a day or two that poke into the 60s by next week.

This Friday and Saturday will be one such time when lots of folks wonder what all this “mild pattern” talk was about, as it will briefly turn windy with 30s and 40s highs, 20s lows, and some mountain snow showers. But the warmer temperatures likely build again into next week, approaching Christmas.

Sunrise lights the morning sky over Salem's Lake Spring Park on Wednesday morning, Dec. 10, two days after the second similar 2-4-inch snowfall in the Roanoke Valley. Courtesy of Leslie James.
Sunrise lights the morning sky over Salem’s Lake Spring Park on Wednesday morning, Dec. 10, two days after the second similar 2-4-inch snowfall in the Roanoke Valley. Courtesy of Leslie James.

Being so far east of the core of the high pressure dome bringing the warmth, there is some potential for cold air masses to build around the eastern edge of it, possibly in a cold-air damming pattern when high pressure would press cold air against the mountains.

As we get past Christmas and some of the furniture shifts around in the northern latitudes, this might be something to watch for sneaky wintry precipitation threats amid an otherwise milder pattern.

The new year may bring on a more wholesale pattern shift to something colder again, but this is distant and fuzzy as of now. The continental mild pattern hanging on deep into January is also a plausible scenario at this point.

But for those of you who have not enjoyed the cold and snow December has started with, celebrate the milder days that you will unwrap on Christmas week, even if there is an occasional backslide into something chillier.

Snow fills the landscape far and wide in this panoramic photo from Baywood in Grayson County on Dec. 8. Courtesy of Patrick Butler.
Snow fills the landscape far and wide in this panoramic photo from Baywood in Grayson County on Dec. 8. Courtesy of Patrick Butler.

Coldest early December since 2010 for many

Two fairly recent years — 2010 and 2018 — figure prominently into the historic standards for early December cold and snow.

The first 15 days of December in 2010 are the coldest such period on record at Blacksburg, Lynchburg, and tied for coldest with 1917 at Danville, and second coldest at Roanoke, trailing 1917. That period in 2010 ranks fourth coldest at Burke’s Garden.

But the first half (minus half a day) of December this year ranks highly for coldness at those sites, each of which have over a century of weather records.

·         Lynchburg, fourth coldest, 31.7-degree average.

·         Danville, sixth coldest, 34.3.

·         Roanoke, seventh coldest, 32.8.

·         Blacksburg, 10th coldest, 28.9.

·         Burke’s Garden, tied 11th coldest with 2005, 26.6.

The chill of early December hasn’t primarily been about frigid low temperatures. Those finally came early this week with the last blast of Arctic air in the cold pattern. Bald Knob above Mountain Lake in Giles County and Grayson Highlands, nearly a mile high in Grayson County, each dropped to -5 on Monday morning, while Burke’s Garden bottomed out at -4. Most other locations in our region were in the single digits to lower teens.

What did not happen in early December were any even brief mild spells, with temperatures stuck between the 20s and 40s most of the first 15 days of the month.

Lynchburg’s warmest temperature in the first 15 days of December was 50 degrees this past Saturday, Dec. 13. This is the only time in recorded Lynchburg weather history, which goes back to 1892, that it has failed to get above 50 degrees at least one time in the first 15 days of December.

A photo from a drone captures the snowy scene along Electric Road in southwest Ronaoke County on Dec. 8. Courtesy of Aaron Moyer.
A photo from a drone captures the snowy scene along Electric Road in southwest Roanoke County on Dec. 8. Courtesy of Aaron Moyer.

2018 atop early December snow for many

For early December snowfall, what happened just seven years ago on Dec. 9-10, 2018, is the region’s historic high point.

Powered by that widespread 1-2 foot snow event, the first 15 days of 2018 are the snowiest such period on record at most locations in our region: 17.4 inches at Wytheville, 15.2 inches at Roanoke and Danville; 15 inches at Martinsville; 13.6 inches at Appomattox; and 11.7 inches at Lynchburg.

The first half of December in 2018 was second snowiest at Blacksburg at 13.7 inches, trailing 17.3 in 1927, and rank only third at Burke’s Garden with 17.4 inches, the top spot held by 29 inches in the first half of December in 1944.

But the first 15 days of December in 2025 rank highly on the list at these locations, each going back at least 85 years:

·         Appomattox, second snowiest, 9.9 inches.

·         Lynchburg, fifth snowiest, 6.6 inches.

·         Blacksburg, seventh snowiest, 8.6 inches.

·         Burke’s Garden, seventh snowiest, 13.3 inches.

·         Martinsville, seventh snowiest, 2.7 inches.

·         Roanoke, eighth snowiest, 6.5 inches.

·         Danville, eighth snowiest, 2.3 inches.

·         Wytheville, 11th snowiest, 5.4 inches.

You will notice that even some of the Southside locations that got relatively light totals ranked among the historically snowy early December periods. The same can’t be said for some areas along the southern rim of Southwest Virginia from the Abingdon-Bristol area westward that largely missed both the Dec. 5 and Dec. 8 snowfalls, with totals near an inch or less.

Moonlight and fresh snow lighten and whiten a wintry night on Dec. 6 at Ironto in Montgomery County. Courtesy of Tina Gibson.
Moonlight and fresh snow lighten and whiten a wintry night on Dec. 6 at Ironto in Montgomery County. Courtesy of Tina Gibson.

That brings us to the standings for the snowfall prediction contest. Below is how the totals rounded to the nearest inch stand as of Dec. 15 for the 10 sites used in the contest, of which entrants chose three each.

We are only one-eighth through the contest period that continues until March 31, so there is a lot of time for more to be added to these totals. But these numbers won’t get smaller, so some of those picking extremely small amounts for multiple sites aside from those near the southern border may already be out of contention.

Abingdon: 1
Appomattox: 10
Burke’s Garden: 13
Blacksburg: 9
Clintwood: 8
Danville: 2
Lynchburg: 7
Martinsville: 3
Roanoke: 7
Wytheville: 5

Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley.  

To submit a photo, send it to weather@cardinalnews.org or tweet it to @CardinalNewsVa or @KevinMyattWx. Please identify the location and date of the photo with each submission.

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Kevin Myatt has written about Southwest and Southside Virginia weather for the past two decades, previously...