Buchanan County, a place blessed with scenic beauty but cursed by the economy and occasionally forces of nature, has a difficult decision to make.
How much effort (and money) should it put into holding onto the Appalachian School of Law?
As Cardinal’s education reporter Lisa Rowan reported, the private, stand-alone law school is running out of money (the school says it only has enough to go through the spring) and would like to explore a merger with Roanoke College in Salem. That requires the consent of the Buchanan County Board of Supervisors because half the school’s trustees are appointed by the supervisors. That was a requirement that Buchanan County insisted on when the school was founded in the 1990s as an insurance policy to make sure the school didn’t move. The fear then was that some other locality would try to lure away a successful school; what’s happening now is the fear that the school might have to move to keep it from failing.
At an emergency meeting last week, the Board of Supervisors voted 7-0 to deny its blessing and instead appointed a committee to investigate the situation.
Here’s some context that might help the board — and others concerned about Appalachian — understand the choices now before them.
1. Independent law schools are rare
The American Bar Association offers accreditation to 197 law schools in the United States. Of those, only 14 are independent from a four-year school, with Appalachian being one of those 14. There’s nothing inherently wrong with being independent, but it does mean there is no adjacent feeder school to help generate a stream of applicants.
2. Appalachian has the lowest enrollment of any of those 14 independent law schools
Appalachian has an enrollment of 184. The next smallest of the independent law schools is Ave Maria School of Law in Naples, Florida, which has an enrollment of 300. Just above them is Atlanta’s John Marshall School of Law, with 397. Five of the independent law schools have an enrollment north of 1,000: the Mitchell Hamline School of Law in St. Paul, Minnesota; New England Law | Boston; the New York Law School; South Texas College of Law Houston; and Southwestern Law School in Los Angeles.
Not only is Appalachian quite small, it’s well below the enrollment that it needs to be sustainable, school officials say. That’s an enrollment of 300, a 63% increase from where it is now, which would then leave it tied with Ave Maria for the smallest enrollment of any independent law school in the country.
3. Appalachian is in the smallest community of any of those 14 independent law schools
More than half of those other independent law schools are in major cities: Atlanta, Boston, Houston, Los Angeles, New York, San Diego, St. Paul and Tampa. Others are in more middle-sized cities: Albany, New York; Charleston, South Carolina; Lansing, Michigan; Naples, Florida.
The two that are in the smallest communities are Appalachian and the Vermont Law School. Vermont has a weird system of townships that makes comparisons difficult. Vermont Law is in the unincorporated community of South Royalton, which doesn’t have an official population count. It’s considered part of the town of Royalton, which at the last census had a population of 2,750, which would put it ahead of Grundy’s 875. If you go by counties, a more universal local government configuration, then Vermont Law is in a county of 57,753 (Windsor) while Appalachian is in a county of 20,355, if you go by the 2020 census (more recent estimates show it smaller).
4. Appalachian is in the least affluent community of any of those 14 independent law schools
That Vermont county has a median household income of $77,932, according to the Federal Reserve. Buchanan County is at $43,446. That’s the third-lowest in Virginia, and nowhere close to any of the other places with independent law schools.
That’s one reason the law school matters so much to Buchanan County — its 40 employees rank it as a prominent employer in a county that has otherwise been shedding jobs over the years. However, all these factors also make it difficult for Appalachian to recruit students — it’s a standalone school that must persuade students to attend a school in a small, not well-to-do community that’s hard to reach. It may be perfectly located for potential law school students from Appalachia but are there enough of them to make the school sustainable? So far, the answer has, unfortunately, been “no.”
5. Law school enrollment is declining
Law school enrollment (measured in terms of first-year enrollment) in the United States peaked in 2010 at 52,404 first-year students, according to Lawhub. It plummeted after that and last year stood at 39,6665. That figure has been pretty consistent for about a decade now, so at least isn’t dropping further. However, demography suggests it will.
Declining birth rates have reduced the size of the generational cohort that’s now moving into traditional college-age years — this is the so-called “enrollment cliff” that colleges have been watching approach for nearly two decades now. Inside Higher Ed reported last year: “The number of 18-year-old high school graduates will peak in 2025 at around 3.9 million, the report projects, followed by a 15-year decline. By 2041, the number of traditional-age incoming college students will be down 13 percent.”
As the pool of four-year students shrinks, so will the smaller pool of students moving on to graduate programs — law school among them.
6. Law school enrollment is down sharply at some established schools
Lawhub has published a database that compares enrollment in 2014-15 with 2024-25. At Texas A&M, enrollment is down 43.9% over a decade’s time. At Florida State, down 35.2%. Michigan State, down 33.2%.
Among Virginia law schools, Appalachian is down 0.6% over the past decade, Washington and Lee is down 4.3%, the University of Virginia is down 9%, George Mason is down 11%, University of Richmond down 14.4%, while William & Mary is down 18.2%.
The only two Virginia law schools to show an enrollment increase over that time were Liberty, which was up 46.3%, and Regent, which was up 4.5%.
The questions to be asked
Now we move from the facts that can be determined to the questions that must be asked.
What are the odds that Appalachian can raise the money it takes to stay solvent (about $2.5 million by spring) or to be sustainable long-term beyond that (upwards of $10 million)? For comparison purposes, the former amount is more than John Reid, the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor, raised in his entire campaign this year (granted, he was underfunded) or about what Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger has raised since she got elected.
Even if Appalachian can raise this money, what are the odds that it can defy the demographic trends confronting much better-known law schools? (If the school were to move to Salem, then Roanoke College would have to deal with the same challenge.)
How much will the revelation of these financial challenges hurt Appalachian’s ability to recruit students (or retain faculty)? Who will apply to go to a law school that might evaporate?
And now, perhaps the most challenging question for the Buchanan County Board of Supervisors:
What’s the least bad outcome for Buchanan County? The best outcome would obviously be if the Appalachian School of Law could stay in Grundy and thrive. It’s a source of both employment and prestige. What happens, though, if that’s simply not possible? Supervisor Trey Adkins laid out two options at last week’s meeting — between the school moving now to Salem or hanging on for two years in Grundy and then failing, he said he preferred the latter. At least then, he said, people would know he tried. That may be, but that’s also where the interests of the county and the school diverge — if the school failed, that would definitely be bad for the students.
Whether the school moved or failed, Buchanan would lose the money it’s put into the school so far — and the prestige of having an institution of higher learning. However, which would be worse for the county’s reputation: to have the school fail in place or have it move and succeed elsewhere? That’s the question the county may find itself having to decide.
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