In the closing debate of the 1980 presidential campaign, Ronald Reagan asked a series of questions that proved devastating to President Jimmy Carter — and that have lingered down through the years as a classic test for candidates: “Are you better off than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago?”
Roanoke College has regularly asked a similar question as part of its regular consumer sentiment poll (separate from its political polling). The latest results flash a warning sign for Republicans going into the congressional midterms in 2026 — brighter than the red nose on Rudolph the reindeer.
Those surveyed were given three options: Are you and your family better off, the same or worse off financially than a year ago?
In the most recent survey, the single biggest set of responses was “worse off” — 39.3%
Another 37.8% said they were in the same condition; only 22.9% said they were better off.
Now let’s put those numbers in context.
First off, they’re not really different from a year ago. In December 2024, 38.7% said they were worse off than the year prior, 33.1% the same and only 28.3% thought themselves better off. Those pessimistic results help explain the depressed results for Kamala Harris in Virginia in last year’s presidential election. She carried the state, but with lower numbers than Democrats often receive. Nationally, frustration with the economy under Joe Biden helped fuel Donald Trump’s victory.
Nearly a year into Trump’s presidency, Virginians’ mood hasn’t really changed — except maybe to get worse. When Roanoke College last surveyed about the economy, in August, people seemed to be feeling somewhat better. Then, the most frequent answer was “same” — 42.3% — while “worse off” slipped to 36.0%. Those weren’t exactly great results for an incumbent party, but it did suggest that maybe things had bottomed out.
Now in the latest survey, the “same” percentage has dropped, and the “worse off” share has risen again to 39.3%, about where that figure was a year ago.
That’s actually not the bad news in this poll. The more worrisome part for Republicans is that Virginians have become more convinced that things are going to get worse.
The second question in the survey: “Do you think that a year from now you and your family living there will be better off financially, worse off, or just about the same as now?”
A year ago, 43.9% saw better times ahead, 34.3% thought things would be the same and only 21.7% thought things would get worse.
This latest survey captures a shifting outlook: 31.5% think the next year will be better, down from 43.9% a year ago. The percentage who think it will get worse has risen from 21.7% to 30.7%. The remainder expect the economy to stay the same.
Another sign of how economic views are changing for the worse: Roanoke College asks a related question about the “business outlook” in the country. A year ago, 44.4% thought that the outlook was worse than the year before, by far the most frequent answer. Now, that figure has risen to 51.4%.
Yet more bad news: A year ago, a bare majority of Virginians surveyed saw more bad times over the coming five years than good times — 50.7%.
Now that figure has risen to 60.4%.
Consumer spending is what drives much of the economy, so a lot of the economy is based on people’s impression of it, rather than what some learned economist, peering up from a set of spreadsheets, might pronounce. A year ago, 51.4% of Virginians thought it was a bad time to make a big purchase, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that.” Now, 58.0% feel that way. That’s not exactly a sign that consumers are prepared to open their wallets. A separate survey from Roanoke College recently found that Virginians planned to spend 5% less this holiday season than last year, largely because of higher prices.
Economic pessimism isn’t good for the economy. Nor is it good for the party in power, no matter which party that is. Jimmy Carter and the Democrats learned that the hard way in 1980; George H.W. Bush and the Republicans learned that again in 1992. So did Republicans in 2008 and Democrats in 2024. The latest string of election results, from the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey to various special elections for the U.S. House, showed a distinct Democratic trend, with Democrats running on economic issues by emphasizing “affordability.”
The nexus between the economy and politics is usually not what statistics show but what people feel. And right now, this Roanoke College poll shows people aren’t feeling good. Democrats last year could talk all they wanted about how they had made key investments that were creating jobs (often in clean energy fields) and turning the economy around. Statistically, they may have been correct, but voters didn’t feel that in their pocketbooks and voted accordingly. Republicans now run the same risk. Not-so-fun fact for Republicans: There were stats in 1992 that showed the economy was improving, but voters hadn’t absorbed that yet and gave Bush the boot anyway.
Trump is not helping his party’s chances next year when he dismisses affordability as “a hoax.” Republicans would be better off adhering to the advice that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a fellow Republican, recently gave in a Washington Post interview: “Any Republican who refuses to admit we have an affordability problem is not listening to the American people. It’s real because the American people think it’s real. I cannot overstate that — in a free country — it’s the people who define what is real, not the politicians.”
Now, against that dreary outlook, there are some hopeful signs that Republicans can look to. The report that accompanied the Roanoke College poll offered these national stats: “Wage growth (4.2%) outpaced inflation (2.9%) in the third quarter, providing real income gains to support consumer spending.”
Some other good news for Republicans: The midterms are still 11 months away.
That means there are two questions for the year ahead: How much will the economy improve, and how much will consumers, also known as voters, actually feel that? Perhaps a third question, too: If they feel an improvement, will they credit that to Republicans?
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